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Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 13 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
As we creep ever closer to the All-Star break, both the MLB season and fantasy season are heating up. A lot of early-season finds have already proven whether or not they're for real, but there's always another diamond in the rough waiting there to be snagged off the waiver wire.
So let's bring you another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. We'll come in and help you with identifying who's a breakout that's going to help your roster win more this season. The advanced stats tell all, and we'll use them to the best of our abilities. Andy Smith did great covering for me last week, and I'm excited to get back at it today.
With that said, let's dive into another group of hitters that are breaking out. This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of hitters - TJ Rumfield, Henry Bolte, Brooks Lee, and Carter Jensen. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, June 22nd.
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TJ Rumfield, 1B, Colorado Rockies
2026 Stats: .842 OPS, 122 OPS+, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 34 R, 0 SB, 34% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Even though the Rockies are currently at the bottom of the NL West standings, there are quite a few promising things developing at Coors Field. One of those is the trajectory of rookie Rumfield. The 26-year-old has continued to progress month after month and is looking dominant in June.
Over the past 14 days, he's been crushing it with a 1.223 OPS, driven by five homers. He was acquired by Colorado from the Yankees in the offseason and is looking like the real deal. But you know how it goes here. Is he a breakout or a fake out?
COL - TJ Rumfield 3-run HR (12)
📏 387 ft | 💨 93.3 mph | 📐 31°
⚾️ 89.4 mph changeup (PIT - RHP Dennis Santana)
🏟️ Out in 29/30 parks (❌ SF)PIT (8) @ COL (4)
🔻 8th#Rockies pic.twitter.com/0pWPYNuVDY— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) June 21, 2026
Starting with the plate approach, we can see that there's a lot to love. He's posting a 14.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.3% walk rate. Those numbers closely reflect what he did in the Yankees' system over the past couple of years. To see that translate that quickly is a very good start.
Moving on to the batted ball profile, he's looking like a pretty standard MLB player. He's got a 40.4% ground-ball rate, 38.6% fly-ball rate, and a 21.1% line drive rate. That's actually pretty close to what the Mariners do as a team.
The line drive rate is a little bit lower than what it was the past couple of seasons in the minors, but so is the ground-ball rate. Another consistency is his 14.0% HR/FB rate. That matches what he's done in 2024 for Triple-A Scranton and is actually better than what he did for them last season.
Moving on to his BABIP, we're seeing he's posting a .297 BABIP after 75 games. That's at least showing he's not a beneficiary of luck here. However, it is lower than the .329 and .330 marks he posted in the minors the last two seasons. Maybe he was getting lucky there, but that could also mean there's some room for improvement here for Rumfield.
As we head to his Baseball Savant page, we're starting to see some gaps. He's posting a .367 wOBA, which is paired with a .323 xwOBA. With Rockies players, you always have to expect there to be a bit of a gap, but this feels a little big.
That means we should check what other Rockies are performing like. There are currently five Rockies with a wOBA that's at least 30 points higher than their xwOBA, including Mickey Moniak and Hunter Goodman. This gives me the impression that, sure, Rumfield may be a beneficiary of luck, but the 43-point gap may not be as wide as it seems.
What is likely influencing that xwOBA is Rumfield's barrel rate and hard-hit rate. His barrel rate of 6.3% ranks in the 30th percentile, and his 32.3% hard-hit rate ranks in the 17th percentile. While most of his profile looks pretty solid, this is the biggest area of worry for me right now.
One interesting note about this hot streak, too, is that while Rumfield's been at his hottest over the last two weeks, he's been projected to be way worse (.506 wOBA vs .290 xwOBA). The five homers are great, but the rest of his results may be the result of luck with such a low hard-hit rate.
Moving on to the pitch mix that Rumfield faces, he's been solid against one pitch but has been overachieving on the next three. Four-seamers are what he's been crushing, hitting them for a .380 wOBA to go along with a .356 xwOBA. That gap is not worrisome to me as it's still a solid floor.
The next three pitches, though, all feature negative regression. Changeups (.350 wOBA, .262 xwOBA), sliders (.401 wOBA, .294 xwOBA), and curveballs (.335 wOBA, .255 xwOBA) are all major reasons we're seeing drops in his expected production.
Verdict: It's hard not to like what Rumfield's been doing as of late, but it's also a bit concerning to see that his expected stats are so low when he's been at his hottest. I don't think Coors Field has anything to do with it, so don't worry about the home park being a reason for those lower numbers, but it's his quality of contact instead that's got me concerned.
Consider Rumfield a hold. Since he's a rookie, there's still time to get things figured out. In a low-stress environment like the Rockies dugout, you're going to get some time to get it all worked out. So the peripheral stats can improve with time, but as of now, I think the worry they show may have some truth to it.
At 34% rostered, he would be worth adding to your bench, but don't make any drastic moves to acquire the Rockies' rookie.
Henry Bolte, OF, Athletics
2026 Stats: .814 OPS, 112 OPS+, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R, 8 SB, 10% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It feels like the A's just have an endless stream of young talent they can throw out there whenever they want, especially on the offensive side of things. Bolte fits the mold as a 22-year-old right-handed bat that excels with contact.
While he started slow, he's starting to pick it up. He's hit for a .900 OPS over the last two weeks and is making A's fans feel great about his future with the team. But is this breakout for real, or are we witnessing a fake-out? Let's dig in.
Henry Bolte slugs his first career homer! pic.twitter.com/JxwxrVoUBy
— MLB (@MLB) June 10, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, you'd assume he's more of a power hitter than a contact hitter. He's got a 28.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.2% walk rate. The strikeout rate is actually pretty consistent with who he's been in the minors, while the walk rate is normally up around 11%. But 9.2% is nothing to sneeze at.
Moving on to his batted ball profile, there are certainly going to be questions raised about it. That's because he's rolling with a 63.2% ground-ball rate. The fly-ball rate is at just 23.7% fly-ball rate, and a 13.2% line drive rate.
The ground-ball rate is alarming to me, especially with such a low line drive rate. A high ground-ball rate is never a death sentence to production, but it makes things that much harder in the end. With such a low line drive rate, it makes me worried that much of the production could be the result of luck.
But there's more that we need to dig into before determining that, though. Part of that is BABIP, and that's something else that's going to raise more questions. Bolte has a .446 BABIP this season, well above the standard .300 number we look for.
This is just part of who Bolte is, though. He's traditionally posted a BABIP that's around .400, with .382 being the lowest mark he's posted through the minors. Speed is the essence of his game, and it's very much needed for him to succeed.
As we go to his Baseball Savant page, it shouldn't be a surprise that it's predicting negative regression. His .365 wOBA is paired with a .306 xwOBA. Undoubtedly, the incredibly high ground-ball rate plays a major factor here. If those grounders turn into line drives, then I think we'd see that xwOBA skyrocket.
With such a high ground-ball rate, though, it shouldn't be a surprise to see his barrel rate at just 5.3%. That would rank in the 25th percentile and put him in line with a hitter like Xavier Edwards. But one thing that differentiates him is his hard-hit rate of 50.7%. That's on pace with Kazuma Okamoto and would put him in the 91st percentile.
Moving on to the pitch mix, we shouldn't be surprised to see negative regression so prominent on so many pitches. Sinkers and four-seamers have been the pitches he's been really solid against. But each is projecting major negative regression (.378 wOBA and .283 xwOBA for sinkers, .398 wOBA and .324 xwOBA for four-seamers).
He should get credit for his success against changeups, though. He's hit them for a .700 wOBA to go with a .490 xwOBA. While there are questions about the rest of his pitches, he's at least hitting changeups very solidly.
Verdict: The two things that Bolte has in his corner right now are his hard-hit rate and his elite speed. If not for those, then we'd be looking at someone who is massively overachieving. At the same time, this is just who he's been forever, and maybe it can work at the major-league level.
Similar to Rumfield, I am considering Bolte a hold. While Rumfield can give you power, Bolte gives you a bit of speed. While the batted ball profile is very concerning, his hard-hit rate and speed may help him overcome those issues for a little longer, at least. I'm OK if you want to pick him up off your waiver wire, but know that there's a lot of volatility here if he can't turn some of those grounders into line drives soon.
Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
2026 Stats: .726 OPS, 98 OPS+, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 36 R, 3 SB, 41% Rostered (Yahoo!)
There may be no hotter offense than that of the Twins. It's easy to get blown away by the power of Byron Buxton, but you don't average 7.8 runs per game over seven games without everyone chipping in.
Lee has been a solid contributor over the last two weeks for Minnesota, hitting for an .899 OPS with three homers. He's catching the eye of fantasy managers, but is he a breakout or a fake out?
Brooks Lee has started to heat up.
Season Stats:
12 HR
42 RBI
.238 AVG | .294 OBP | .717 OPSPace: 26 HR / 92 RBI#NoPlaceLikeHERE pic.twitter.com/RO516UaW6v
— PaceBall (@paceball__) June 19, 2026
Starting with the plate approach, we can see he's looking just like he always has. He's got a 15.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 6.7% walk rate. Those are very close to his career marks of a 16.5% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate, so we're looking at season-long performance close to who he is.
Over the last two weeks, we've actually seen a lot of positives here, though. The walk rate is up to 10.0% while the strikeout rate is down to 4.0%. That number may make Tony Gwynn blush.
Moving onto the batted ball profile, we are seeing him perform more like who he usually is again. The ground-ball rate of 40.0% is a bit below his normal marks. His fly-ball rate of 39.6% is just a touch higher than his normal marks. His line drive rate of 20.4% is higher than last season but matches his rookie season.
Even his BABIP is right along with his career marks. This year that's coming in at a .251 clip. Last season, it was at .258, and the season before, he had a .243 mark. Even during this hot streak, he's posting just a .225 BABIP. So while his numbers are consistent, maybe it means there's more in the tank.
But that's what the Baseball Savant page is for. So let's see what xwOBA has to say. Unfortunately, it's not great as his .317 wOBA is paired with a .277 xwOBA. That tells me that he's likely not barreling the ball or hitting hard, similar to what we saw with Rumfield.
When we look at those rates, our suspicions are confirmed. His hard-hit rate of 29.8% ranks in the 10th percentile, and his barrel rate of 4.8% ranks in the 21st percentile. These rates are actually down from his 2025 season. With that season resulting in an OPS+ of 80, this year's OPS+ of 98 does feel like an overachievement.
Looking at the pitch mix he faces, there are really just two that stick out to me. That would be four-seamers and sliders. Both have been pitches he's smashed this season (.377 wOBA for four-seamers, .412 wOBA for sliders), but both are expecting quite a bit of negative regression (.301 xwOBA for four-seamers, .265 xwOBA for sliders).
Most of the other major pitches that Lee sees are generally getting true results. Not many feature a floor that makes me confident he'll be able to keep up the level of production we're seeing during his hot streak, though, so I am siding with the season-long results here.
Verdict: Without any major changes in his batted ball profile this season, it looks like Lee is a bit of a fake out. The hard-hit rate and barrel rate are too low for me to get behind. Negative regression seems rampant, and it seems like there's way too much luck here that he's benefiting from in one way or another.
Certainly consider Lee a bit of a sell. At 41% rostered, you're likely not going to be able to move him to another manager, but if you're looking to add him to your roster, then don't make any drastic moves. You should be able to find better options elsewhere, as Lee should come crashing back down to earth shortly here.
Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals
2026 Stats: .749 OPS, 108 OPS+, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 36 R, 1 SB, 59% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It's not been the best season in Kansas City, but they're at least seeing some solid development from their young guys. Jac Caglianone gets the headlines, but Jensen has been hitting the ball pretty solidly as of late.
He's hitting for a 1.152 OPS over the last two weeks. He hasn't looked quite like who he was when he debuted last season for the Royals, but he's starting to show signs of a breakout. Or are we looking at a fake-out? Let's find out.
Carter Jensen clubs a leadoff homer! pic.twitter.com/pTjuJlFE8t
— MLB (@MLB) June 17, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, we're seeing quite the change from last season. He's posted a 27.1% strikeout rate alongside a 9.3% walk rate. Last year, he had a 17.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 13.0% walk rate. Granted, that was in just 69 PAs compared to 269 this season, but it's quite the change.
One thing to consider is how he has been through Kansas City's minor league system. In it, he's generally had a strikeout rate in the mid-20s and a walk rate that's 10% or higher. By those standards, he's underachieving this season.
Moving onto the batted ball profile, we're seeing quite a few changes. His ground-ball rate of 34.1% is much lower than his 45.8% rate he posted last year. Decreasing that rate is generally a good thing, but it's also tied to a much lower OPS+.
His 48.8% fly-ball rate is much higher than last season's 33.3% number, too. An increase that high usually is a pretty good thing. The line drive rate is down, though, dropping to 17.1% from last year's 20.8%.
The key things to note here are that his ground-ball rate is pretty close to where it's been throughout his journey in the minor leagues. But the fly-ball rate is significantly higher (traditionally around 38%), and the line drive rate is down (typically 24% or higher).
While it's generally a good thing to have the fly-ball rate increase, I get the feeling that while he's increasing the fly-ball rate, it's a result of softer contact. He's definitely been his best with a higher line drive rate, and that should be an area he tries to improve in.
Doing a quick BABIP check, he's coming in right at the .300 mark. There's no luck that he's a beneficiary of here, but he also generally has a BABIP around .330 or so. Maybe there's some room for improvement here.
As we look into his Baseball Savant page, we unfortunately have another overachiever. His .324 wOBA is paired with a .288 xwOBA. His recent hot streak is certainly helping to bring him closer to a league-average mark, but there's a lot more work to be done for him to look like a formidable fantasy option.
With marks that low in xwOBA, you'd expect that he's not hitting the ball hard or barreling it. But he's actually just a touch above average here. His hard-hit rate of 43.5% sits in the 60th percentile, and his barrel rate of 8.9% is in the 56th percentile.
Looking at the pitch mix, there's one pitch I'm fine with his production on and four others that I'm not enthusiastic about. He's been hitting sinkers well, posting a .505 wOBA to go with a .347 xwOBA. That's quite a bit of negative regression coming for him, but .347 is still a decent floor.
Four of the top five pitches he faces, though, have an xwOBA below .300 or worse. That'd be four-seamers, sliders, sweepers, and changeups. So many pitchers have these in their arsenals, and I won't be surprised to see them pivot to these more when Jensen steps in the box.
Verdict: I think the issue with Jensen is simply that he's not getting enough line drives. The fly balls are usually productive for other players, but for Jensen, for whatever reason, they haven't benefited him to see such a large increase. His hot streak has seen him hit with a 27.8% line drive rate, but how long will that keep up?
I'm considering Jensen to be a hold, but the grip isn't all that tight here. We need a little more time to see how this hot streak plays out. If he keeps the line drive rate up, then that will make fantasy managers happy. But if not, then fantasy managers who roster him will feel their season turning sour in a similar fashion to the Royals' 2026 season.
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