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Connelly's bargain hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, discount batters with upside at each position. His top undervalued 2025 draft picks for the later rounds.
At some point in most fantasy drafts, fantasy managers must concede that they cannot draft a top-tier player at each position in their lineups. Preparing for this can set teams up for a successful draft.
Like deciding between buying a name-brand product or a generic one, fantasy managers will have to weigh the cost differences versus the proportional value they can expect to receive. Fortunately, I am going to do some of that assessing right now!
In this article, I will pick one bargain player at each hitting position and compare them to their "name-brand" version. There is plenty of value to be found in fantasy drafts by looking in the right places, so let's go find some!
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Ivan Herrera, Catcher, ADP: 233
Bargain instead of Gabriel Moreno (ADP: 186)
Catcher is a thin position to start with, but fantasy managers in two-catcher leagues will need to dig pretty deep into the player pool. With Willson Contreras moving to first base, Ivan Herrera should have plenty of opportunities to earn playing time, which fantasy managers can take advantage of.
The Cardinals have two intriguing young catchers they'll try to give playing time to this season. After a strong offensive performance from Ivan Herrera will he get adequate playing time or will Pedro Pages start for St. Louis? Here's their @fangraphs ZiPS projections! #STLCards pic.twitter.com/erKlwiap9O
— Dealin' the Cards (@DealinTheCards) March 5, 2025
Herrera hit well in 2024 with a .301/.372/.428 slash line, five home runs, 37 runs scored, 27 RBI, and five stolen bases in 259 plate appearances. He didn't provide much power but made league-average hard contact and provided more pop in the minors, so he could potentially provide more HR.
The most appealing part of his game is his ability to hit for average. Finding a second catcher who won't outright hurt fantasy managers is tough, but if nothing else, Herrera should provide a high batting average. This should help him get a solid amount of at-bats.
Herrera's stat line is very reminiscent of Gabriel Moreno's, who hits in a better lineup but is also going almost 50 picks before Herrera. Like Herrera, Moreno doesn't hit the ball particularly hard and doesn't elevate the ball. Moreno has a longer track record of hitting for average, but he only has about 500 more career plate appearances than Herrera.
Herrera and Moreno both offer little power and high average hitting in the bottom of their respective lineups. Herrera may still have to compete for playing time early on with Pedro Pages, but he is a better hitter. Fantasy managers should get close to Moreno's profile in Herrera but several rounds later in drafts.
Ryan Mountcastle, First Base, ADP: 235
Bargain instead of Jake Burger (ADP: 112)
Ryan Mountcastle has been overlooked in fantasy since the Orioles moved the left-field wall back. The wall is coming back in this season, but fantasy managers' excitement has not returned. This makes Mountcastle a clear discount heading into 2025.
This man is very happy about the left field wall at Camden Yards moving back in pic.twitter.com/yvyw5SgqrT
— Baltimore Banner Sports (@AllBannerSports) January 31, 2025
A former fantasy prospect, Mountcastle has had a solid career with a .265/.316/.450 slash line in 563 games. He hit 33 HR in 2021, but his totals have dropped since from 22 to 18 to 13. This has been the knock on him: his power production dried up once the left-field wall got pushed back in Camden Yards.
The totals may not have been what fantasy managers were hoping for, but the batted-ball profile has been solid. In fact, it was very similar to a player who is being drafted 125 picks earlier.
Jake Burger has been a consistent source of close to 30 HR each of the last two seasons. Mountcastle has not, but he has shown the ability to hit for power and may have the chance to approach 25-30 HR with his home ballpark improvements. He also should provide a higher batting average floor than Burger.
Given their similarities, it seems strange to me that Burger is going so much higher than Mountcastle and that Mountcastle is generally being drafted so late. If everything falls into place, fantasy managers could draft 90% of Burger's power production over 100 picks later.
Jonathan India, Second Base, ADP: 244
Bargain instead of Luis Garcia Jr. (ADP: 120)
Jonathan India is a fantasy option who is never particularly exciting but always finishes the season with useful counting stats. I think he can provide sneaky value once again in 2025 with his new team.
India doesn't impact the ball hard, but his overall profile fits well in a leadoff spot, which he is slotted in for the Royals. He is a career .253 hitter and had an above-average expected batting average last season. He also walks at a high clip, with his 12.6% rate in the 97th percentile of baseball last season.
Hello Jonathan India 👋🏼
First spring AB for the new #Royals leadoff hitter. pic.twitter.com/ilhfGvabRu
— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) February 21, 2025
India's ability to get on base, coupled with his above-average sprint speed, should provide him plenty of opportunities to pick up steals and runs scored. His RBI count may not be that high, but he has always provided enough overall to be a decent roto/categories option and a solid points-league player.
It's tough to nitpick when a player is being drafted around pick 250, especially when he comes close to players being drafted much earlier. Luis Garcia Jr. had a breakout season in 2024, slashing .282/.318/.444 with 18 HR, 58 runs scored, 70 RBI, and 22 stolen bases in 528 plate appearances.
This line is not all that different from India's 2024 of .248/.357/.392 with 15 HR, 84 runs scored, 58 RBI, and 13 stolen bases in 637 plate appearances. Garcia Jr. has consistently hit for a higher batting average than India throughout his career, but he had never provided that much power or speed.
Additionally, Garcia Jr. only got 114 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. It remains to be seen if he can earn more at-bats this season, but he is currently being drafted about 125 picks ahead of India despite having similar numbers.
India may be a bit of a fantasy compiler, which is not the most exciting profile. However, getting solid production that late in the draft could make for a strategic option for fantasy managers.
Isaac Paredes, Third Base, ADP: 200
Bargain instead of Matt Chapman (ADP: 127)
Isaac Paredes had a somewhat disappointing 2024, particularly once he was traded to the Cubs. The 25-year-old managed a .238/.346/.393 slash line with 19 HR, 64 runs scored, and 80 RBI in 641 plate appearances. However, I think he could be a valuable pick in 2025 with an ADP of 200.
Paredes's batted-ball profile can deliver plenty of fantasy value when placed in the proper ballpark. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both among the lowest in baseball, but his launch angle sweet spot percentage is in the 79th percentile of baseball. He is a pull-heavy hitter, often targeting directly down the left-field line.
Tropicana Field
Wrigley Field
Daikin Park
This profile fit perfectly in Tropicana Field, where Paredes found a lot of success. However, his trade to Wrigley Field did not suit his profile at all, and he struggled. His new home park of Daikin Park is a great fit, with a short left-field foul pole and the short Crawford Boxes. Paredes should be set up to maximize his fantasy power value this season.
Paredes should benefit from a great home park situation, while his "name-brand" version has a severe home park disadvantage. Matt Chapman had a great 2024, slashing .247/.328/.463 with 27 HR, 98 runs scored, 78 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in 647 plate appearances. However, his home park has the worst HR park factor.
Unlike Paredes, Chapman has always hit the ball extremely hard. He profiles as a much more prolific power hitter than Paredes but has only hit one more HR than Paredes over the last three seasons. The two also typically produce similar batting averages, and Paredes now slots into a better lineup than Chapman.
Chapman is fast, and Paredes does not steal bases, but Chapman had never stolen more than four bases before 2024. Ignoring that category, the two players could put up pretty similar stat lines in 2025, with Paredes coming at a 75-pick discount.
Carlos Correa, Shortstop, ADP: 237
Bargain instead of Corey Seager (ADP: 44)
Carlos Correa endured health issues throughout his career, and although he is just 30 years old, fantasy managers seem to have given up on him, given his 237 ADP. I think he still has plenty to offer and is currently a great draft discount.
Correa's skills should not be in question. Last season, he slashed .310/.388/.517 with 14 HR, 55 runs scored, and 54 RBI in 367 plate appearances, earning himself an All-Star nod. He also continued to hit the ball hard and produced a Statcast page littered with red.
He missed time during the season with an oblique strain and plantar fasciitis, which he had previously dealt with. Correa may need to simply manage his condition and play through it for the rest of his career, but he showed that he can still produce at a high level when on the field.
There is another high-average, high-power, no-steal shortstop with injury concerns who is going over 200 picks ahead of Correa. Corey Seager has been one of fantasy's most reliable four-category contributors when in the lineup. He had a complete 2022 season but had multiple injured-list stints in 2023 and 2024.
Seager has hit for better power and average throughout his career compared to Correa, but the two have similar profiles, including injury concerns, and Seager will be turning 31 this season. Seager is the better fantasy player in a vacuum, but his production is not over 200 picks better than Correa.
Cedric Mullins, Outfield, ADP: 211
Bargain instead of Pete Crow-Armstrong (ADP: 138)
Power-speed threats are sought after in roto leagues; however, Cedric Mullins is currently being drafted as the 211th player despite hitting 18 HR with 32 stolen bases in 2024. There are presently many similar players being drafted ahead of him, which makes him a great fantasy bargain.
Mullins does come with his flaws. He will likely never replicate his 30-HR 2021 season. Further, while he owns a .252 career batting average, he has hit just .233 and .234 each of his last two seasons. He should still see plenty of playing time, but the O's did bring in a bunch of additional outfielders this offseason.
Regardless, he still has plenty of upside, especially given his current ADP. He has provided at least 15 HR in each of his last four seasons and has provided at least 30 stolen bases in three of his last four seasons. Mullins is a former All-Star and Silver Slugger and will be hitting in a strong offense.
Several similar outfielders are going ahead of Mullins in drafts, but the most interesting comparison is with Pete Crow-Armstrong. The 22-year-old is an excellent defender and is very fast, bringing a high fantasy pedigree into 2024. Offensively, he produced a .237/.286/.384 slash line with 10 HR, 46 runs scored, 47 RBI, and 27 stolen bases in 410 plate appearances.
His 2024 numbers were very similar to Mullins's. The hype is still very real for PCA, as his 138 ADP is just about 70 picks ahead of Mullins. PCA has gotten off to a great spring, but fantasy managers should not judge a player on a few dozen plate appearances.
Pete Crow-Armstrong this spring:
.522 BA
1.587 OPS
3 HR
10 RBIpic.twitter.com/BkFg6TKZHN— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) March 8, 2025
At this point in his career, PCA has shown plenty of speed but not a ton of power or batting average. He is a great "real-life" player because of his defense, but that does not translate to fantasy.
His 2024 numbers don't seem to justify a top-150 pick, especially when fantasy managers could essentially get his floor 70 picks later in Mullins. I would rather bet on Mullins at a cheaper draft value, knowing he has the potential to provide even more than what he did last season.
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