RADIO
Brad Leibfried highlights the top FanDuel NBA DFS Sim League lineup picks for 3/18/20, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
With the cancellation of nearly every sporting event in the county, daily fantasy sites have had to get creative with offerings. That is certainly the case with Fanduel as they have introduced "NBA SIM leagues".
Premise: Just like every NBA contest on Fanduel, you will pick two point guards, two shooting guards, two small forwards, two power forwards and a center while staying under the $60,000 cap number. However, there is one big difference, the points each player accrues is a random draw from the games that player has played during the season. The player pool is a bit limited as players must have had at least 15 games played with over zero fantasy points played on the season. Also very key, THE MATCH-UP IS IRRELEVANT. This is not a simulated game between the teams shown, this is just the players who are available on this slate. Each player will be assigned a number, say for example 12, the stats from that players 12th game will then be used to total his fantasy points.
Players: The players are priced strictly based on fantasy points per game, while those are the averages, there will be players who are more volatile than others. It is also key to note that not everyone has played the same number of games, which could change the "value" of a player. LeBron James for example has a 60 game sample to pick from, while someone like Kyrie Irving only has 20 games to pick from, so the odds of a Kyrie game being the one picked is 5%, while the odds any specific LeBron game will be picked is 1.6%.
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FanDuel High Priced Plays for 3/18/20
We will look at a few groups, the first group will be the players over $9k, a group that includes 10 players today. This group is obviously your highest scoring group, but also the one you would like to think has your safest floor. However, when looking you can see there are a few standouts in this group. With this being a new game mode it will be difficult to nail down exactly what we are looking for for a target score but for simplicity sake we will say 5x the players salary is a solid score line. With that being said, here are a few stats from the top priced players tonight.
LeBron James: 60 games played, 22 games over 5x (36%), 9 games under 4x value (15%). As expect, Lebron is a safe option as his lowest fantasy output is 34.4 points. However, it is worth noting that in the freeroll, he may lack some upside as he has only 1 game over 6.25x this value all season.
Anthony Davis: 55 games played, 20 games over 5x (36%), 9 games under 4x value (16%). Without the worry of Davis being a late scratch or leaving a game early, Davis is a safer option than normal. As you can see, this numbers are a similar to LeBron, but he does have three games under 30 fantasy points this year.
Karl-Anthony Towns: 35 games played, 13 over 5x (37%), 9 games under 4x value (26%). As you can see, Towns is a bit riskier of a play as he has a much higher rate of below value games as opposed to Davis and James. With no games over 7.26x his value, Towns seems like an option to fade at this price.
Bradley Beal: 57 games played, 25 over 5x (44%), 18 games under 4x (32%). The prototypical "GPP Play", Beal has one of the highest rates of big games of anyone, but also has a nearly one in three shot of getting a total dud. With just the big field freeroll open now, he feels like a good spend up in the hopes of a big payday. It is worth noting that he has zero games over 7x his current value.
Joel Embiid: 44 games played, 19 over 5x (43%), 10 games under 4x (23%). Embiid is another strong GPP play as his has shown massive upside in some games, but beware, the Sixers big man has 5 games under 30 fantasy points last night, which could sink your lineup. For anyone who played last night, this is what happened with James Harden as his lowest point total of the entire season was drawn and sunk any teams he was on.
Nikola Jokic: 65 games played, 26 over 5x (40%), 22 games under 4x (34%) As you can see, Jokic is the riskiest player we have gotten to thus far as the likelihood you get a below average game is the highest. He does have some upside as he has three games over 73 fantasy points, but those are few and far between.
Kawhi Leonard: 51 games played, 24 over 5x (47%), 6 games under 4x (12%) Without the risk of a DNP (Rest), Kawhi is the clear top choice play on the slate. Not only does he have the highest probability of a good game, but also has the lowest floor of any star. This would be your "cash game" lock of the day.
Ben Simmons: 54 games played, 22 over 5x (40%), 14 games under 4x (26%) Simmons does have some upside in this format, but beware, he has a few total stinkers this year (10.9 and 9.2 points), which could really sink your team.
FanDuel Low Priced Plays for 3/18/20
As with any DFS contest, your top end guys are expected to be your safer options who are not likely to his a huge multiplier, while your cheaper guys bring inherently more risk but also more upside. I will highlight a few players here and look at more of their true upside, while also giving you the probability they have a total dud.
Brandon Ingram: 56 games played, 32 over 5x (57%), 2 games under 3x (4%) As you can see, Ingram is one of the safest plays on the board, he is almost a lock to get you a solid game. However, it is worth noting he has only 1 game over 8x this salary all year.
Zion Williamson: 19 games played, 12 over 5x (63%) o games under 3.9x. Another cash game lock, Zion's limited games and steady production means at this price you are locking in at least 26.3 points.
OG Anunoby: 63 games played. 33 over 5x (52%), 16 games under 3x (25%) Here is where the risk starts to creep in, at just $4.6k, Anunoby has MASSIVE upside with 7! games over 9x his value. With just the freeroll open today, the Raptors wing feels like a great lock in as he is likely to get you a good game with a good chance at a monster game.
Naz Reid: 28 games played, 16 over 5x (57%), 5 games under 3x (18%) As you can see, Reid has a solid shot at getting you an above average game, but buyer beware as he has four games of three fantasy points or less in mix.
Minimum priced Options
These players offer big multiplier upside, but also could sink your lineups.
Juancho Hernangomez has three games over 10x his minimum salary, but also over 50% of his games are under 3x value.
Jordan Poole has a solid 25 games over 5x value but also 17 games under 10 fantasy points.
Frank Ntilikina has five games where he hits 10x this salary, but again has 22 games in which he failed to reach 10 fantasy points.
