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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 9 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I got all four of the top picks right, but had a rough week in the middle. This was the best week for the RotoBaller Reader's Group as a whole. Pick-and-Morty and Relocated Outdoor Party both turned in the first perfect weeks for the group this season. BKNoleGirl, Bullgator, and espn47220625 all had 54 points. Eight more entries got 50 or more points. That's 12 entries that broke 50 this week. Well done!
Pick-and-Morty's perfect week moved that entry back into first place with 314 points, three points ahead of chrismiller19. Bullgator's big week moved up to third with 305 points. JBTiger83 is in fourth place with 300 points. Six more entries are above 290 points. Seven more are above 280.
Week 8 gave us a new leader and created some separation between the pack. 11 more entries are in the 270s. The group leaders last week gained 24 points on the leader, so there are still around 30 entries with a good shot at the prize.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) Iowa State over BYU
I was going to make this my one-point pick anyway, so I'm flipping to Iowa State. Why? The public is picking BYU at 88%, yet Iowa State is a 3.5-point favorite in Vegas. FPI has Iowa State at 45.7% to win. That's better than a puncher's chance, and Vegas is on board. I'm trying to steal a point here.
I promise it's more than that. The way to beat Iowa State is to take the top off of a beleaguered secondary. Bear Bachmeier doesn't have a great deep arm. He attacks defenses over the middle. That's where Iowa State is strongest. I see where Vegas is coming from.
(2) North Dakota State over South Dakota State
Just how GOOD is the Dakota Marker game on Saturday?!
The matchup between No. 1 NDSU & No. 2 SDSU is the:
• 3rd ever both teams are Top 2
• ^ 2nd straight Top 2 reg season game
• 15th straight both teams Top 10
• 20th straight both teams rankedFIREWORKS in Brookings. pic.twitter.com/E4U7gnt4Rn
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) October 21, 2025
The Bison won both games between the two teams in Fargo last season. These teams often play twice because they meet in the playoffs. They are that good, and yes, they really, really hate each other. I'm from North Dakota. Trust me on this.
Before the victories last year, SDSU had won five straight. North Dakota State hasn't won in Brookings since 2019. They have only won twice there, playoffs included, in the last 10 years. With the public so heavily on the Bison, I'm trying to steal points again.
(3) Vanderbilt over Missouri
I can really sum this up in one video:
Rep of the year nominee for @VandyFootball OG Cade McConnell😤 pic.twitter.com/BiuzPT5v3p
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) October 20, 2025
That Vanderbilt offensive line is nasty. On top of that, Vanderbilt has only allowed 645 rushing yards in seven games. In three games against SEC opponents (Alabama, LSU, South Carolina), the Commodores have allowed 330 yards total.
That means Missouri will have to pass to win, and they are on the road. I don't believe they can do that.
(4) Washington over Illinois
Washington is built a lot like the Indiana team that decimated Illinois. Demond Williams Jr. isn't nearly as polished as Fernando Mendoza, but Jonah Coleman is one of the better running backs in the country.
I don't think the Washington line can push around the Illini as Indiana did, but the secondary might be better than Indiana's. Luke Altmyer is going to make life difficult.
I almost wanted to move to the other side because 62% of Pick Em players are on Washington. Seeing the Vegas odds (-195 on Washington moneyline) and FPI (61.6% Huskies) kept me on the Washington side of this.
(5) Minnesota over Iowa
Iowa hosts Minnesota this week, which means…
🚨FLOYD OF ROSEDALE TROPHY FACTS🚨
• 98 lbs of PURE bronze
• 21 inch long x 15.5 inch tall
• 1st awarded in 1935
• original trophy was live Hampshire boar
• 10th oldest FBS trophyThe most BEAUTIFUL trophy in CFB. pic.twitter.com/xTnQ5OBtTY
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) October 20, 2025
If you read my best college football trophies piece over the summer, you know that Minnesota plays for some elite trophies. Floyd is one of the best, and so is his story. The full story is here, along with my other favorite trophies. Some were played last week!
The public is VERY heavy on Iowa (89%). Why? Iowa is basically Nebraska without Temu Patrick Mahomes (Dylan Raiola). Do you need a refresher on what Minnesota did to Nebraska last week?
Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski has 811 passing yards...IN SEVEN GAMES. Minnesota can stop the run. There's no way that Iowa can pass to beat them.
(6) Oklahoma over Mississippi
This is the best offense that Oklahoma has faced. This is the best defense that Mississippi has faced. Something has to give. Given Mississippi's problems stopping the run and Oklahoma freshman Tory Blaylock logging his first 100-yard game last week, it will be Ole Miss giving.
(7) Texas A&M over LSU
Never forget after LSU beat Arkansas in 2016 LSU polished the bottom half of "The Boot" trophy. pic.twitter.com/ysrqAlfolm
— Chris (@chriskirchein) November 21, 2020
It's things like this that make rivalries fun. This one has lost some luster since LSU is struggling, but it's a night game at Death Valley. Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop for No. 3 Texas A&M. It's tradition.
FPI and Vegas agree. The Aggies are only 2.5-point favorites against the spread, and FPI has them with a 51.9% chance of a win. If I had any sort of belief left for LSU at all, I would try to steal points. Despite what Vegas and FPI think, 78% of the public is on the Aggies.
(8) South Florida over Memphis
I do think Memphis losing the Battle of the Bones had something to do with the Tigers looking ahead. All is not lost for Memphis. A one-loss American Conference team may still be higher ranked than the Mountain West or Sun Belt champion and get the College Football Playoff invite.
USF has the strength of schedule advantage after beating Boise State and Florida. This is the place where Memphis can steal a lot of that thunder.
Byrum Brown’s last game at Memphis pic.twitter.com/TGChXLqstj
— SarasotaUSF (@SarasotaUSF) October 21, 2025
That game was in 2023 when Memphis had the overall better team. Brown went off, but still lost the game. Now, South Florida has built around Brown as they promised they would if he stayed. That defense is very underrated.
Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis is expected to play after leaving last week's loss to UAB, but he may not be 100%. That's one more reason to believe in a South Florida win, even though FPI has this at 50.1% Memphis. Vegas (-3.5 for South Florida) knows what's up.
(9) Cincinnati over Baylor
This Baylor defense can't stop anyone. Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby is on a heater right now. This really doesn't look good for the Bears. I considered this for my 10-point game.
(10) San Diego State over Fresno State
The trophy San Diego State and Fresno State play for - the Old Oil Can. pic.twitter.com/9wjlTEZdm1
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 26, 2023
This beauty is also on the line this weekend. These teams have played since 1923, and continuously since Fresno joined the Mountain West in 2012. This rivalry is so heated that San Diego State refers to Fresno as "that team up north." Ohio State fans can relate. That's where they got it from.
San Diego State has dominated the Mountain West so far, and they shut out Cal. Fresno got beat up on by Kansas. This feels like an easy pick.
