Early ADP Variations: ESPN Overvalued/Undervalued

August 4, 2020

Gage Bridgford evaluates ADP for ESPN fantasy football leagues to find overvalued and undervalued draft targets at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

With the NFL season a little over a month away, we're going to be getting into the thick of redraft season in the coming weeks. The Rotoballer team is going to be looking at ADPs from around the industry, and I'm taking down the big folks over at ESPN. It's time to see who's getting drafted too early and who's getting slept on.

You'll want to fade those being overdrafted while taking advantage of the value that your opponents are leaving on the board as a result. Championships aren't won on draft day, but they can be lost. For example, taking running back James Conner or David Johnson in the first round, like people did last year, you are putting yourself in a big hole from Day 1.

Players are going to be drafted where they shouldn't this year. It's just how this game goes. Some sleeper taken in the late rounds is going to finish in the top 12 at their position while somebody drafted in the first couple of rounds will bust for some reason or another. Looking through these guys is how you can make sure you're not the one making the mistake.

Overdrafted

These players are currently overvalued in ESPN fantasy football leagues based on early ADP results.

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

I get it. Brady is playing with two receivers that are in the top 10 in the NFL, and, depending on who you talk to, they're both in the top five. He's also playing in an offense that's going to let him throw the ball more than he's thrown in it 13 years. He's also got three tight ends that could be TE1s if they were featured in their offenses. Despite all of that, seeing him, at age 43, being drafted in the middle of the seventh round just seems absurd to me.

His average depth of target last year was 7.6 yards, which was the 12th-lowest in the entire league. For comparison, former Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston had an average depth of target of 10.5 yards. Some of the QBs being drafted after him right now are Matt Ryan, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers, who all finished above him last season.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

This hurts as a big proponent of the free Aaron Jones movement, but it's also an unfortunate reality. Jones led the NFL in touchdowns last year, which is bound to regress, but the Packers also have a lot of competition on the roster for him. Jamaal Williams was already in the building, but they spent a second-round pick on running back A.J. Dillon as well. I don't think they plan on letting him ride the pine for an entire season regardless of the play of Jones.

Jones generated over 1500 all-purpose yards last season, and he averaged just under 5.5 yards per touch. They had a split of about 2:1 in favor of Jones. While I think he can still maintain the lion's share of the touches, I think he'll come down closer to 55-60 percent of the workload. With that in mind, I'm not comfortable drafting him as RB7 ahead of clear bellcows like Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs. I love Jones and his talent, but the competition is too serious to ignore.

D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

I had a few guys I could have put in this spot, but I ended up going with Moore. He's put up two strong seasons right out of the gate, which is fantastic, but he's not exactly set up for success this season. This offseason, the Panthers have added a new quarterback, head coach, offensive coordinator, and another wide receiver in Robby Anderson. Throw in an extremely shortened offseason, Moore is already behind the eight ball.

Moore is currently being drafted as WR11. He finished as WR17 last offseason with Kyle Allen throwing him the ball, so this isn't a crazy jump. However, it's more of an issue with the guys being drafted behind him. He's being drafted ahead of guys like Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, who both finished as WR1s last year without changing anything else around them. I like Moore's talent, but I'd prefer him a little later with the guys you can get after him.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)

I didn't want to include two players from the same team, but Gronk's ADP makes him such an easy target. After not playing all of last season and having to pile on a ton of weight in a hurry, he's being drafted as TE6. He's going ahead of guys like Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry that played at an effective level last season. I get that he is the only player on this offense that has chemistry with Brady, but it's been a while. He also still hasn't held up for a full season since the 2011 season.

Looking at his splits from his last season that he played, he wears down as the year goes along, and that isn't likely to change heading into his Age 31 season. His points per game average dropped by a full 2.5 points during the second half of that season. Compare that to someone like Higbee, who more than tripled his points per game average during the back half of the 2019 season. If someone in your league wants to draft Gronk as the premium tight end he used to be, there will be better value available to you.

Underdrafted

These players are currently undervalued in ESPN fantasy football leagues based on early ADP results.

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)

Until Stafford is being drafted as a QB1, he's being drafted too low. His current ADP has him as QB13 on ESPN. I understand he dealt with a back injury last season, but that's no reason for the disrespect to be this strong. Stafford's 21.45 points per game were fourth among all quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott. His receivers are all back along with tight end T.J. Hockenson who saw his season cut short by injury. They also added rookie running back De'Andre Swift to make the backfield even more dynamic.

Look at that pace he was on! He was on pace to score 395 fantasy points which would have made him second place by nearly 50 points, and he would have been just under 30 points behind Lamar. With all of that, you want to draft him after guys like Carson Wentz and Drew Brees? Stafford had started all 16 games for eight full seasons prior to last year. As someone that likes to wait on a quarterback, I'll gladly take a QB1 for the price of a QB2 in the 12th round.

Leonard Fournette (RB, JAX)

Do the Jaguars intend on keeping Fournette long term? Probably not based on the fact they declined his fifth-year option and tried to trade him before the NFL Draft. Despite that, he's still on the team this year, and he's bound for some easy positive regression. On 341 touches last season, he scored just three total touchdowns, which is an average of one touchdown every 113.7 touches. For comparison, he averaged one touchdown every 28.7 touches during his first two seasons. There is still no legitimate competition in the backfield which means he'll again be a workhorse.

Fournette is currently being drafted as RB17 in the beginning of the fourth round after finishing as RB7 last season. The Jaguars offensive line remains intact from last season, and they're one of the few teams league-wide that can make that claim. With a shortened offseason, they'll automatically have more chemistry built up which will allow them to start the season on better footing. If you're trying to wait on running back a little bit, Fournette's depressed price despite demolishing his receiving records last season is easy money.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

I had a few contenders for this spot, but I'm ultimately going with Kupp. After dealing with injuries throughout his first two seasons, Kupp finally stayed healthy last season, and it paid big dividends. He caught 94 passes for over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished the year as WR4 in PPR, and wideout Brandin Cooks was shipped out to Houston. Despite that, he's being drafted as WR17 in the middle of the fifth round.

In his three seasons, he has consistently been quarterback Jared Goff's favorite target. He averages over seven targets per game, and he comes down with just under 70 percent of those targets, including clearing the 70 percent mark the last two seasons. Kupp, at his current price, is the perfect candidate to be your WR1 if you go running back heavy. He sees a high volume of targets, and he converts them into touchdowns, with one touchdown per 9.3 receptions.

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)

I've been pounding the drum for Ebron all offseason. After everyone was clamoring for Vance McDonald last offseason, why isn't the same hype there for Ebron in the same offense? Ebron is just one season removed from a top-five finish at the position, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is going to love a big athletic target like him. After the top few guys at the position, tight end is all about finding later value. As TE17 in the 17th round, that's pretty good late value to me.

Last offseason, McDonald was being drafted as TE7. Based on ESPN ADP, he's not even being drafted within the top 28 at the position right now, but Ebron is still too low. During that 2018 season with Andrew Luck, he was averaging just under 15 points per game. While a lot of that was coming thanks to touchdowns, he was still averaging about 50 yards per game. This Steelers' offense lacks major red-zone threats at the wide receiver position, and I think Ebron has an easy path to 10+ touchdowns this year.

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