Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Nick Mariano's "My Guys"

July 15, 2026

Nick Mariano's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade.

The All-Star break affords us a chance to press pause and take stock of our strengths, weaknesses, and potential avenues to success. Some years, I take a wide stance with this column and include an aggressive number of players who are rostered in a healthy swath of leagues, but we're going to zoom in a bit. A few of the named players have been generously "meh," while others have been good, but it's their fantasy-relevant role that I feel warrants a breakout to the next level.

Let's put on some rose-colored glasses, and I'll let you see who is occupying the bench slots on many of my squads as the Midsummer Classic plays out. You can tell me if I'm crazy. Be the friends I needed in high school to tell me that I'm frolicking amidst red flags galore!

This column will initially list players whom I am definitely buying for the second half, where possible, but have been prominently featured on the waiver lists for a while. And then we'll get into a fun trio of young outfielders before some pitchers, most of whom are relievers, because this is a Nick Mariano feature. Alright, let's take a gander at my second-half breakouts!

Players I Anticipate Much From, But They've “Broken Out” Already

-Esmerlyn Valdez (57% rostered)

-Carson Benge (53%)

-Chase DeLauter (59%)

-A.J. Ewing (35%)

-Curtis Mead (26%)

-Heliot Ramos (46%)

Players Entering the Break on Notable Heaters

-Garrett Mitchell (22%)

-Heriberto Hernandez (5%)

-Dominic Canzone (17%)

-Yainer Diaz (41%)

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks (3%)

Waldschmidt faded out during his first taste of MLB action, going from a .284 hitter with five swipes in 22 games to hitting .211 over a lackluster final 40 PAs in June. He then went back to Triple-A for 17 games, roping six doubles with three homers and a healthy 12 walks to 15 strikeouts in 78 PAs (but without a steal!).

The 23-year-old is now back in the majors, and we’re hoping to see more of the man who cruised to a healthy 2025 Double-A line of .309/.423/.498 with nine home runs and 19 steals over 66 games. Rated as Arizona’s top prospect by MLBPipeline (and the overall No. 28 prospect), he wouldn’t be the first young talent folks have quickly written off.

His first hurdle to a second-half breakout will be getting his plate discipline back in line against MLB pitching, because a 7% walk rate and 33.6% K rate do not reflect the usual 13-15%+ walk rates and 17-23% K rates seen in the minors.

But this is the accessible kind of profile that I’m happily chasing, especially with Chase Field behind him. That venue’s 106 Park Factor for right-handed bats is tied with Target Field for the second-best mark behind Coors, which should reward the hit and speed tools if he can find those gaps. Do you believe in the power of the 'stache?

In absolutely groundbreaking moves, Ryan Waldschmidt has a mustache now!

How will this affect his prospect stock?!@Aces | #Dbacks https://t.co/lyxHS8VQ2J

— Diamondbacks Prospects 🐍 (@dbacksprospectz) July 8, 2026

Dylan Crews, OF - Washington Nationals (32%)

Oh, look, another cast-aside young bat! The second overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft has a stat line that looks like the same underwhelming, fantasy-irrelevant production we saw in 2024 and ‘25. A .211/.270/.343 line with six homers and five swipes in 189 PAs (.208/.280/.352, 10 HR, 17 SB in 322 PAs last year).

But peel back a layer, and you’ll find that Crews holds a lousy .216 average even when adjusting for only competitive swings, yet that covers up the .274 xBA underneath. An 113-point gap exists between his .372 SLG and .485 xSLG, a margin which only Brandon Nimmo (142) and Julio Rodriguez (114) exceed out of 191 qualified bats since May 19.

The bad luck hasn’t resulted in a discipline slip either, as he’s actually reversed the (perhaps too) aggressive approach. After a 24:3 K:BB in 101 June at-bats, he’s got a 10:6 mark through 33 ABs in July. He’s also yet to be caught stealing, so the green light should remain on moving forward. Maybe he's just a platoon bat against lefties, but I want to see this newer swing approach more.

Cam Smith, OF - Houston Astros (10%)

Let’s just stick with the theme here. Over the last 30 days going into the break, Smith is still boasting an elite 77.9 mph bat speed on competitive swings and 76.5 mph overall, both of which are top-10 figures. The man hits just enough absolute moonshots to keep me hooked, and his ascent to MLB was so accelerated that I’m more gracious with waiting around for consistency.

He’s hitting more flies and fewer liners, but even so, the stark drop from last year’s .320 BABIP to this year’s .254 tally is steep. His overall xBA is 19 points higher, with fewer Ks and a barrel rate that has nearly doubled. The .278 xBA over the last 30 days is sandwiched between Ryan O’Hearn and Byron Buxton on the leaderboard.

At some point, we all have to be willing to acknowledge that batted-ball data and xStats can only provide so much shelter. But Smith’s early-season hot streak is still fresh on my mind, and he’s also 9-for-10 on steal attempts. Maybe I’ll be waiting around until 2027, just as last year’s second-half breakouts coverboy Jac Caglianone had me do, but I’ll be here. Will you?

Cam Smith 2025 vs Cam Smith 2026. His numbers might not show it, but he's made real progress pic.twitter.com/MB0EFCcQhC

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) July 12, 2026

Christian Scott, SP - New York Mets (15%)

The Mets need Scott, and everyone really, to step it up in the face of a horrendous expectations vs. reality gulf. Scott finished the first half on a high note, striking out five Royals over five shutout innings. I don’t love cherry-picking, but his first start was just so atrocious and showed no control against the rest of his portfolio that I’m okay nixing it.

Since May 1, he holds a 3.08 ERA with a 64:21 K:BB in 52 2/3 IP. He’s made three starts over the last 30 days, resulting in a stellar 15.4% swinging-strike rate and a 76.8% zone-contact rate that is only bested by Joey Cantillo over the same timeframe (158 SPs with 10+ IP). I’m still wary of the walks bubbling up and the errant meatball, but this is a strong trajectory after requiring hybrid Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure.

Mason Montgomery, SP/RP - Pittsburgh Pirates (2%)

If I were to ask which reliever has the highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days, and was so gracious as to spot you “Mason M…” on the prompter, you would default to Mason Miller, yes? Well, the buzzer would sound, and I’d get to smugly reveal that it’s Montgomery with 45.7%. (Miller’s 41% is fifth.)

Walks have been an issue, but I think we can all agree that his 21:3 K:BB over the last 10 IP is fine, yes? Now, Pittsburgh first slogged through the Dennis Santana times, and then we thought Gregory Soto was going to be the anchor moving forward, but he’s been stumbling too.

Monty has been used as the high-leverage arm, thrown into the tightrope situations no matter what inning reads on the scoreboard. This has included dancing around a bases-loaded, no-out scenario from Bubba Chandler. After Soto evaded a bases-loaded jam of his own for the save in Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader, Montgomery had an easier save in Game 2.

First save as a Pirate for Mason Montgomery! pic.twitter.com/hPlWrzuXvV

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 11, 2026

Make the switch. He’s barely rostered and could feed us all throughout the second half. Even if the Pirates stick with Soto or make a big trade at closer, Monty is a key FrankenAce piece to help us get across the finish line.

Tyler Wells, SP/RP - Baltimore Orioles (17%)

This writer isn’t expecting much out of Ryan Helsley for the rest of 2026, even if he’s been recently cleared of structural damage. Wells and Andrew Kittredge have stepped up to handle the ninth in his stead, but it’s Wells who has the whiffs and command that we want to prioritize.

His last 14 games have resulted in just two runs on nine hits with a 20:3 K:BB (17 ⅓ IP), logging two wins, two saves, and two holds. It’s been a long road since requiring UCL revision surgery in ‘24 after undergoing Tommy John in ‘19, so perhaps you’ve forgotten how he posted a 3.64 ERA/0.99 WHIP with a 24.9% K rate over 20 starts three years ago.

Andrew Morris, SP/RP - Minnesota Twins (7%)

Morris allowed six earned runs in a three-game stretch in early June, and has found another form over the last month (17 IP, 3 W, 2 V, 5 HLD, 0 ER, 6 H, 17:3 K:BB), allowing one measly barrel in that time.

I know Yoendrys Gomez is a deserved A-tier story after rising up from a terrible opening to ‘26 with the Rays, but Morris is a solds stud who could emerge if Gomez were to slide. Is he the heir to Minnesota's vacated Griffin Jax chair?

**Other key RPs I want:

-Elvis Alvarado (ATH), 4% - Highest Ks, good control, HRs can snakebite.
-Kirby Yates (LAA), 6% - Old man still has it, holds experience edge, lacks competition.
-Erik Miller (SF), 1% - Caleb Kilian keeps tripping up, Miller’s back looks healthy.
-Michael Petersen (MIA), 8% - Miami probably trades for a closer, though MP is the current hedge.
-Tyron Guerrero (BOS), 4% - Fun solds play, might be dealt.
-Jonathan Bowlan (PHI), 1% - Stuck behind others, but K% and ratios make him intriguing.
-Whoever the Opposite of Jordan Romano is (not COL) #Free Jimmy Herget

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