DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Farmers Insurance Open Golf Advice (2023)

January 24, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Farmers Insurance. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

We can now move the tally to four worldwide victories in six starts after Jon Rahm overpowered the American Express, taking down a venue he self-proclaimed as nothing more than a "putting contest" a season ago. It has been an incredible run for the 28-year-old since voicing his displeasure with the modern setup of the Official World Golf Rankings, a system he called "laughable" and one that "devalues the better players."

If you can't tell by now, Rahm definitely has a lot of takes when it comes to the sport of golf, but while his criticism for how ranking points are measured should be viewed as justifiable, it also presents a challenging situation to solve since a safeguard is put into place to keep the PGA Tour on top of the pecking order. Without it, events would become more of a free-for-all than anyone would care to see, and in a day and age where the future of the sport is changing by the second, I'm not sure how great of an idea it would be to allow more pandemonium, especially when we need to be trying to figure out a way to consolidate the talent we have in one spot.

As the classic moniker states, 'winning solves everything,' and even if the third-ranked golfer in the world didn't reach the pinnacle of the mountain once again in stature, it is hard to argue against his current form grading out as the best player in the world. If the nine-time winner on tour can keep this pace up over the next few weeks, it won't be long before he is back on top of his rightful throne.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Farmers Insurance Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• Farmers Insurance Open Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties (Players Will Rotate Between North And South Thursday and Friday)
Top 25 Entrants: 10

Last Five Winners Of Farmers Insurance

Expected Cut-Line

We see an average of somewhere between two to three under par, although the current returns are shifting closer to expecting something more in the vicinity of one under.

Torrey Pines (South)

7,698 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa

Torrey Pines will always have a soft spot in my heart since it is the first course I ever covered when I got into this industry, although it continues to hold its place on my Mount Rushmore of tournaments for more reasons than being a nostalgic trip down memory lane.

The property was initially designed by William F. Bell in the 1950s but experienced a re-design in 2001 by Rees Jones in preparation for the 2008 U.S. Open. Beautiful scenery and views encompass the 36 holes of golf spread out between the North and South properties over the opening two days of the event, but it is important to remember everyone who makes the weekend will play both of their rounds back at the South setup. That awkward distribution can be a tricky split when modeling the pertinent data into actionable metrics, but I will quickly run through both stops and see if we can find a discernible connection between the two layouts.

From a statistical standpoint, there is a fine line between how to handle minor differences. The North requires marginally better iron play than the South, making around the green slightly more applicable, but I do think we start doing more of a disservice to our models than good when we begin to alter the plurality of the data to fit a set narrative that might only be functional a few times during the week. I recommend making a copy of my spreadsheet if you want to weigh the information yourself, but here is what I am using from a statistical perspective for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

• Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%)

• Weighted Fast Poa Greens (15%)

• Strokes Gained Total: Long/Difficult Courses (15%)

• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• 

• Weighted Scrambling (15%)
• 

• DraftKings Points Per Contest (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories:

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group: 

Jon Rahm ($11,600) - Is there a scenario where DraftKings priced Jon Rahm too low on the board at his $11,600 price tag? My model believes that answer is yes. The Spaniard has finished no worse than seventh at this track in his last five attempts, including a U.S. Open victory in 2021. Rahm's combination of safety and upside percolates through the page and is unmatched by any participant in this field.

Tony Finau ($10,500) - I've been a massive proponent over the last five years that Tony Finau will win this event before his career is over. The missed cut in 2022 at Torrey Pines shouldn't be viewed as more than an aberrational result, and I'd revisit the four consecutive top-13 finishes at the track before that slip-up a season ago when making my decisions near the top of the slate. Ownership will be the great equalizer to decide between Rahm, Finau, and Schauffele, but each man has merit when constructing your roster.

Xander Schauffele ($10,300) - The local narrative hasn't always worked out for Xander Schauffele, who started his career by floundering in his first few starts at Torrey Pines. We have since seen the 28-year-old post four top-35 finishes during his last five stops at his home track, but the American is more of a boom-or-bust option than anyone would care to recognize for the time being. I am still inclined to want to go overweight because of his first-place ranking in my model from an upside perspective, but someone likely has to be cut from Rahm, Finau, and Schauffele, and the overall data leans toward it being Xander. 

Collin Morikawa ($10,100) - You never hear me make a sales pitch for why Collin Morikawa is a playable commodity for DFS, but I'll step outside my comfort zone and do something I once thought was forbidden from a recommendation standpoint. The two-time major winner is currently favored over every $9,000 option at the Farmers Insurance Open, and while I would temper my expectations when comparing him directly with the options in this range, it is incredible what a simple $100 decrease in price would have done to most people's psyches when viewing his potential this week. I am still determining if I am definitively going to use the American, but the cards are on the table for him to make my final player pool for the first time in forever – something I once thought to be fictional lore in all realms of my imagination. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: 

Justin Thomas ($9,400) - I am not convinced that the 14.80% ownership projection for Justin Thomas doesn't creep up over the next 48 hours, but to me, he is the epitome of a boom-or-bust target that becomes massively in play if his final mark comes in outside the top 10 names on the board. Thomas' weighted scoring in this field places him second (a recalculation I used to project all 18 holes), and the iron play and par-five scoring also graded inside the top five.

Sungjae Im ($9,300) - We always think about Bermuda surfaces when we talk about Sungjae Im's putting profile increase, but the same sentiment also comes into play on quick Poa – a metric he grades second in this field after I remeasured a category to look into how a golfer graded with these speedier conditions. The South Korean has steadily improved his finishing position during all four years at the track, and the following enhancement would equal a top five.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Jason Day ($8,800) - What a DAY! I can finally recommend my favorite golfer on the planet and not feel any apprehension that I am doing so because of an inner voice that tells me the Aussie is still a top golfer in the world. Metrically, Day's sixth-place output on my sheet is as high as we have seen in a few years, and the health continues to trend in the right direction – evidenced by his fifth top 21 finish since the Shriners Open in six attempts. Some might call it lady luck that turned his game around in Vegas. Others say the two of us standing within a few feet of each other re-centered the earth. Regardless of your take on this situation, the words "Day" and "back" can finally go in the same sentence after a back injury derailed his career for far too long.

Sahith Theegala ($8,700) - Sahith Theegala has convinced me over the last few months that the safety we have been asking for has finally come around. The 41st-ranked player in the world has made 11 of his previous 12 cuts, and the driver-heavy layout of Torrey Pines should play right into his strengths, especially when we consider the track is only an hour away from where the 25-year-old grew up as a youngster. If you are looking for tangible win equity down the board at minimal ownership, Theegala might be the man for that job.

Maverick McNealy ($8,600) - In a week, Maverick McNealy will run wild in popularity at Pebble Beach, but consider this the calm before the storm at his current 10 percent projection on Monday. McNealy's weighted scoring grades 24th in this field, and the top 25 returns for scrambling, DraftKings points per contest, and strokes gained total over the past 24 rounds will only add to that stance.

Justin Rose ($8,100) - My good friend Joe Nicely writes an article every week called 'Horse For The Course' – a piece where he highlights the best long-term fits for a property when we look at past success. I can only assume Justin Rose missed making that article by a fraction of a percent, but I want to throw his name into the mix of players that have dominated this venue in the past. On top of winning this event in 2019, the Englishman has generated two additional top-eight finishes since 2018, and there are reasons to be optimistic after the current form has improved to start the 2023 season.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

Robby Shelton ($7,200) - We can get into all the names above later in the week, but two leverage options are sticking out for me on my model – led by Robby Shelton at his $7,200 price tag. The 27-year-old has provided back-to-back top 36 finishes at this track, with the current form generating two top 10 results since the RSM Classic. Shelton's short game typically is his strength when trying to find safety on these boards, and he ranks as one of the best golfers in this field when combining his around-the-green metrics with his three-putt avoidance.

Martin Laird ($7,100) - The floor is lower here than I would care to admit, but Martin Laird's upside potential seeps through the cracks when running this tournament for someone's ceiling output. Laird jumps from 115th to 31st when comparing baseline putting to the expected outcome on fast Poa, and while the weighted scoring does leave something to be desired, his total driving was good enough in my sheet to place him top 25 of a relatively stacked field.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

I can't imagine getting much grosser than this slate in the $6,000 range. We typically will have one or two golfers slide into the top 40 of my model in this section, but unless we want to shoot for the upside on options like Kevin Streelman ($6,800) or Charley Hoffman ($6,900), I don't see much intrigue in massively staking my exposure into any name in this spectrum of the market.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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