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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/16/21. Brian Entrekin's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We have an 11-game main slate on tap tonight, and it's a good one. There are some excellent pitchers to pay up for with some solid stacking options. The value is primarily with the bats tonight, but there are some superb value spots if feeling like taking some chances. The weather in Wrigley will be one to monitor as it could turn a perfect stacking opportunity into an interesting punt pitching spot. Lots of ways to go on an 11-game slate, so make sure to listen to MLB DFS Quick Hits to get the full slate rundown.
The slate starts with which pitchers to build around. Do you take the chances with pitchers like Woodruff and Urias, who have been on shorter pitch counts of late or are pitching in Coors? Do you pay up for Gausman and hope we see more of the 1H Gausman than the 2H? The mid-priced pitching is pretty solid, with the punt pitching being rough unless taking a chance on Drew Rasmussen versus Toronto. The Yankees, Astros, and Braves will be popular again when it comes to bats, but there are other nice spots to attack. The Phillies and Orioles game has a lot to like, while we also have Coors Field in play and a few other nice spots. It should be a fun slate with a lot of excellent ways to go.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/21/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Alek Manoah - P, TOR at TB ($9,500)
This season, Manoah has been quite the roller coaster ride, pitching absolute gems like his last start or struggling to get through five or six. The solid starts out-weight the struggles, but always something to keep in mind with the Jays' young right-hander. He takes on the Rays again tonight, who dominated his last start, throwing eight shutout innings and striking out 10. He has faced the Rays three times now and has dominated. Throwing another seven shutout innings with ten strikeouts, the other start pitched only 3.2 with two earned runs but struck out nine. That makes 29 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched. Not too shabby. Manoah will likely be more popular than he was last time he faced the Rays, but it still is a great play, especially with that strikeout upside.
Jordan Montgomery - P, NYY vs. TEX ($8,300)
Montgomery is coming off a dominating start versus the Orioles, where he struck out 12 over 5.2 innings, allowing only one run. Looking back at Montgomery's starts, he has been excellent this season, allowing three earned runs or less in 21 of his last 24 starts. The issue with Montgomery is the distance he throws, usually ranging from four to six innings, and the inconsistencies with strikeouts. The good thing for Montgomery is the fact he is facing the Rangers tonight. In September, the Rangers strike out 26.4% of the time versus LHP with a .215 average, .100 ISO, and 64 wRC+. We saw Nestor Cortes rack up the K's last night and did great until the long ball got him. Look for Montgomery to have similar success at a friendly price tag tonight.
Other Options: Kevin Gausman (SF at SD) $10,100, Marcus Stroman (NYM at BOS) $9,200, Jose Urquidy (HOU at LAA) $9,000, Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS vs. NYM) $8,600
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Carson Kelly - C, AZ vs. Drew Smyly ($3,700)
Kely is in a bit of a funk right now, only hitting safely in three of his last eight games, with only one extra-base hits. So you may ask, "Why would I want to use Kelly then?" It's pretty simple for me. He is coming at a discount from where he's been priced a lot recently, and more importantly, he is facing an LHP. Think about when we target Mike Zunino at a higher price tag, some thought process. On the season, Kelly is hitting .310 with a .300 ISO and 1.028 OPS versus LHP. Those are elite numbers. He takes on Smyly tonight, allowing LHP to hit .264 this season with a .467 SLG and nearly 2 HR/9. Smyly may not be long for this game but should be around long enough for a couple of at-bats for Kelly. Enjoy the savings in your GPP lineups.
Yuli Gurriel - 1B, HOU at Packy Naughton ($4,100)
Gurriel heads into tonight's game swinging a scorching bat. He has hit safely in six of his last eight games, with multiple hits in all six games. He is not flexing his muscle a ton with a .056 ISO over the stretch, but he is also striking out only 8.1% of the time. Gurriel is hitting third or fourth for the Astros most days, just increasing his fantasy appeal. Tonight he faces the lefty Naughton, and that is another boost for Gurriel. On the season, Gurriel is hitting .314 with a .214 ISO and .911 OPS. Gurriel is an outstanding value in the Astros lineup and should be paired with Alex Bregman and others when stacking up.
Javier Baez - 2B, NYM at Eduardo Rodriguez ($4,600)
Baez has been locked in at the plate lately. He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, suitable for a .410 average. He has five extra-base hits, including three home runs and three stolen bases. His .282 ISO is solid, but his 1.203 OPS is outstanding, and that is in large part due to a 17% walk rate. Baez has always been criticized for his lack of plate discipline, but the discipline is there right now and makes his overall production even better. He faces Rodriguez tonight, who has been effective most of the season, but it has come with the long ball when he has struggled. This also bodes well for Baez, who is hitting .278 with a .287 ISO versus LHP this season. The Mets are a sneaky GPP stack, with Baez being the center of that stack for me.
Trevor Story- SS, COL vs. Julio Urias ($4,700)
There are many shortstop options tonight, but I wanted to point out the discount Story gets tonight while in Coors Field. Sure he is facing Urias, who has been solid this year, but even Urias struggled in Coors this season. Story is also swinging it well heading into tonight's game by hitting safely in all but two games this September. He is hitting .262 with ten extra-base hits, including five home runs. Story has a .361 ISO to go with a .941 OPS. Story has always hit LHP well, and this season is no different as he is hitting .296 with a .311 ISO and .404 wOBA. He can mash and mash anyone. The Rockies will come in lower rostered than they should, and that makes Story and others great tournament plays tonight in Coors.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, STL at Brandon Woodruff ($4,700)
Let's take a look at another player that likely goes overlooked tonight as he faces a stud pitcher in Woodruff. I know Arenado and the Cardinals were overlooked last night versus Freddy Peralta, which worked out just fine. Arenado collected two hits, including a home run at less than 5% rostered. He comes in, hitting safely in seven of his last nine games with multiple hits in four games and a .324 average. Arenado has had four home runs in the past nine games while also walking over 10% of the time. He has been a fantasy gem of late and makes for a piece of a sneaky stack with Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O'Neil.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Gavin Lux - OF, LAD at Antonio Senzatela ($3,000)
The injury to AJ Pollock has opened the door to regular playing time for Lux, and he has taken full advantage. Lux has hit safely in six of his last seven games, with multiple hits in four of those games. He has three extra-base hits to go with a .273 ISO. More impressively is the plate discipline, where Lux only strikes out 11.5% of the time while walking 11.5% of the time. He faces Senzatela tonight, who has been solid this season but still can give up the long ball from time to time. The fact Lux is this cheap in Coors makes him a lock-in cash games as well as tournaments. Do not overthink this and play the chalky Lux tonight.
Eddie Rosario- OF, ATL at Luke Weaver ($2,900)
It has been a rough year for Rosario, from battling injuries to being traded, but he appears to be comfortable and locked in right now. Rosario brings a five-game hitting streak into tonight's game, where he has five extra-base hits, including three home runs. He is hitting .556 with a .667 ISO and 1.8222 OPS. Yes, unsustainable, but worth riding the hot streak while it's happening. Rosario's plate discipline is also solid as he is only striking out 15% of the time while walking 10% of the time. The contact quality has been off the charts as he is barreling the ball 20% of the time to go with a 60% hard-hit rate. The best part is the fact he is so cheap. I mentioned paying up for pitching tonight, and we will find value with the bats. Well, Lux, Rosario, and others check that value box.
Chas McCormick- OF, HOU vs. Packy Naughton ($2,000)
If we are looking for a full punt, then look no further than the Astros' outfield. In yesterday's value article, I wrote up Jose Siri, and he led off and went yard. I am 100% on Siri again; I do not think he leads off, let alone play with the lefty starting. That brings McCormick into play. McCormick picked up two hits last night and has hit safely in six of his previous eight games. He has two home runs over the stretch and even threw in a stolen base. What makes McCormick appealing is the fact he has some solid power versus LHP. He is only hitting .230 versus LHP but has a .230 ISO to go with four home runs. Keep an eye on McCormick and Siri tonight, as they are both the minimum and bring great value from an awesome Astros' stack. (Let me clarify, Siri is my preferred play of the two, especially if he leads off. I just wanted to bring to life another very qualified value in the outfield for the Astros.)
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Houston Astros (Packy Naughton, LHP)
- Colorado Rockies (Julio Urias, LHP)
- Atlanta Braves (Luke Weaver, RHP)
- Philadelphia Phillies/Baltimore Orioles (Dillon Tate, RHP/Mike Minor, LHP)
- Sneaky Stack- New York Mets (Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP)
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