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Updated on July 6: I stand by all of these predictions!
There were plenty of surprises in the last few baseball seasons, including some huge ones that we didn't really find out about until 2020. There's no reason to think that this year will be any less surprising, and if anything, there's plenty to go on when thinking '20 could be the most surprising season yet.
While bold predictions are coming out about what team might overperform, what perennial playoff team may disappoint, and so on, this article will focus on my bold predictions regarding bullpens. I spend a lot of time looking at every team's bullpen as part of my weekly Closers and Saves Report series, but that doesn't mean that some of these bold predictions won't still be a little bit wild.
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So here we go, 2020 baseball season, looking at bullpens. Some bold predictions almost sure to not come true, but boy, will I look Smart™ if they do!
Brad Boxberger leads the Marlins in saves and nets a legitimate prospect at the Deadline
Boxberger hasn't been good since 2017 and hasn't been great since '14. He was particularly bad in '19 with the Kansas City Royals, putting up a 5.40 ERA that was backed up by his 5.45 xFIP. The Marlins were able to sign him to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training, and he'll make a $1 million base salary if he makes the team. Early reports from Grapefruit League play have been encouraging, as Boxberger reportedly has regained his velocity and is once again throwing an "alien curveball" that he hasn't thrown in a game in a few years. Offseason work with Driveline Baseball has helped him regain movement on his fastball, reportedly back to where it was in previous successful seasons. He's also finally healthy and has changed his delivery a bit.
Basically, the Marlins version of Boxberger may not be the same one that has struggled for two straight seasons. Currently, Brandon Kintzler is penciled in as closer for the Marlins, but it's not hard to see how manager Don Mattingly could salivate over Boxberger's team-leading career 77 saves. If all the hype about the new Boxberger is real, he could pick up something like 25 saves (another bold prediction -- the Marlins flirt with a .500 season this year) before the Trade Deadline, and then be dealt for a legitimate prospect before August begins.
James Karinchak makes would have made the All-Star team
Non-Cleveland Indians fans and non-bullpen nerds probably don't even know the name James Karinchak yet. Here's a bold one for you: They'll know it much better on July 14 when he's introduced at the All-Star Game in Los Angeles. Karinchak has put up video game-like numbers in the Minors, including 2019 strikeout percentages (K%) of 72.7%, 66.7% and 53.9% at three respective levels. He earned a cup of coffee in September and threw 5 1/3 big league innings, striking out eight while allowing just three hits and one run. Most importantly, small sample size notwithstanding, Karinchak only walked one batter in his Major League stint.
Control has been an issue for him throughout his Minor League career, but there have been promising signs lately. Cleveland might have to settle for just a pair of representatives in the All-Star Game. With Corey Kluber (Texas) out of the way, Karinchak could be the one to join Francisco Lindor in Los Angeles for the Mid-summer Classic.
Josh Hader exits the top tier of fantasy closers and is just OK
Hader is one of the best arms in baseball and alone in the top tier of closers for standard fantasy formats -- for now. Here's another bold one for you: Hader will struggle in 2020 -- not enough to lose his job and not enough to not still be a valuable fantasy piece, but enough to no longer be unquestionably top tier. Enough to be a closer who, if he weren't Hader, you'd probably not hear much about. Enough to miss the All-Star Game. Enough to have an ERA over 3.50. Hader has been excellent for all three years of his big league career, but there are warning signs that are getting a bit harder to ignore.
Is he still going to strike a ton of guys out? Yes, without a doubt. Elite swing-and-miss stuff like Hader's doesn't just go away. But you know what does go away? The "ability" to leave 93.2% of baserunners on base. Hader had the second-highest left on-base percentage% in the Majors last season, and a simple regression to his career average (mid-80s) would lead to a decent bit more runs scoring against him. Combine that with his extremely concerning 1.78 HR/9 and you have the makings of a guy who might not be the unquestioned best for much longer.
Edwin Diaz has a huge bounce-back season, gets Cy Young Award votes
The New York Mets thought they had their whole bullpen figured out after they acquired Diaz from the Seattle Mariners before the 2019 season. Diaz was one of the top closers in baseball, and advanced stats backed up his dominance. But then, of course, he put on a Mets uniform and just about everything went wrong. Diaz ended his first season as a Met with a 5.59 ERA and seven blown saves. He intermittently lost his closers job to several different guys and never really got it back full time. This season, however, the Mets have recommitted to Diaz, although they also signed right-hander Dellin Betances to a one-year deal.
Betances will be breathing down Diaz's neck, but here's my bold prediction: The Mets will never have a reason to wonder if they should take Diaz out in the ninth inning. Despite all of Diaz's struggles in '19, there were plenty of positive signs. For example, he ended up with a 3.07 xFIP and 2.63 SIERA, both excellent numbers. He still struck out 39% of the batters that he faced and walked just 8.7%. He was unlucky with batted balls (.381 BABIP) and allowed 2.33 HR/9. His seemingly unsustainably low 76.2 LOB% didn't help matters either. Diaz will bounce back and put up numbers similar to, or better than his '18 Mariners season. He'll get 40 saves and besides making the All-Star team, will receive some Cy Young Award votes at the end of the season as well.
Luke Jackson will be the best pitcher in the Braves' bullpen
Will Smith. Mark Melancon. Shane Greene. Darren O'Day. A.J. Minter. Chris Martin. Luke Jackson. The Atlanta Braves' bullpen is absolutely loaded for the 2020 season. Smith will probably lead the team in saves, even though Melancon is starting the season as closer. That's not a bold prediction. Here's one though: Jackson will be the best pitcher in the Braves' bullpen. But not fantasy-wise, though. I don't think that he'll get more saves than Smith or Melancon. But in terms of on-the-field performance, I think Jackson will be the best pitcher in the Braves 'pen.
Jackson was very, very good in 2019. The few times that he wasn't very very good? The most critical points of the game. Jackson had the fifth-best xFIP in the Majors for pitchers who amassed 60 innings last season, but still ended up with seven blown saves. He allowed 76 hits all year. The most interesting thing about Jackson's seven blown saves last season? It wasn't the pressure that got to him. Conveniently, he faced almost the same number of batters in low leverage (106), medium leverage (105), and high leverage (104) situations. He allowed a .320 wOBA in low leverage, .356 in medium, and .256 in high. So, Jackson was actually at his best in high leverage situations. He was just, perhaps, extremely unlucky. So you heard it here first, folks: Luke Jackson, best reliever in the Braves' bullpen and, hey, let's get really bold, one of the top-10 relievers in baseball.
