RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Ted Potter, Jr. held off heavyweights Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson to win his second PGA Tournament (-17) by three strokes. I thought it was over when Dustin Johnson was three strokes ahead (-16) on Saturday and four-under through his first seven holes. But Potter, who was $7,100 in DraftKings played near-perfect golf bogeying just three times over the weekend.
In this article, I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Genesis Open. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Genesis Open
The West Coast swing continues with the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. The course (finally just one course) is a par 71 that plays between 7,200 and 7,400 yards. The course is on the more difficult end with hard fairways to hit. Getting from the fairway to the small green is tough. And once you're on the green, the Poa Annua fast surface will cause you headaches. There are four par-3's, 11 par-4's, and three par-5's. Six of the 11 par-4's are between 450-500 yards.
This is a very very good field with many known-name players; Tiger, Phil, DJ, Spieth, Rory, Vijay, Ernie, to name a few.
Past winners include Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, James Hahn, Watson, John Merrick, Bill Haas, Aaron Baddeley, and Steve Stricker.
My custom stat model will be focusing on SG: Total (30%), SG: T2G (25%), Par-4 scoring 450-500 yards (25%) Greens-in-regulation gained (10%), and birdie-or-better gained (10%). SG:T has been as close to a determinant to place of finish as possible. The past five tournaments, the top-5 finishers in SG:T2G have finished in the top-5 14 of a possible 25 times. Top-5 finishers in GIR's placing in the top-20 a 20 of a possible 30 times and in the top-5 12 times. In terms of Par 4: 450-5oo yards, top-5 finishers have placed in the top-20 24 out of 25 times and in the top-5 10 times.
Johnson has by far the most SG: Total at Riviera with 52. K.J. Choi is next with 35 followed by Watson, Adam Scott, and Sangmoon Bae.
These rankings account for the last 12 rounds at Riviera and 24 rounds at all courses. If you're wondering who the best putters on Poa greens have been...
Strokes Gained: Putting on POA Greens Leaders
c/o @fantasynational
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— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) February 12, 2018
I will reference both rankings below and factor in that chart above.
With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson ($11,900), Jordan Spieth ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,700), and Paul Casey ($10,200).
D.J. will be the most-owned player this week. Last week he was more than 40% owned in GPP and cash games, and that number may rise to 50% this week. He's off a runner-up, has finished in the top-5 at Riviera in four consecutive years and five of the last six. He somehow missed the cut the other year. He's number one in all my stats at this course over his past 22 rounds. In 1,000 simulations, he made the top-20 55%, top-10 41%, top-5 28%, and won 10%. He's number one in putting at Poa greens over the past 24 rounds. He's a surefire top-10 finish and must be owned in all cash games.
Spieth has been under the weather recently. He had a T-20 last week, a nice rebound after missing the cut in Phoenix. He's 3/5 in making cuts at Riviera including a T-12, T-4, and T-22 last year. I'll toss him in one or two lineups of mine.
McIlroy will be avoided in all my lineups. He's not a good putter on Poa greens with a number in the red. He missed the cut last week and I will wait until he plays well before taking him at this price tag.
Thomas's numbers aren't too good here. He's 3/3 in cuts made, but those all come with a T-41, T-54, and T-39 this year. He's a little above average putting on Poa. That's not good enough to justify his price tag.
Casey is a player I really like this week. He was T-8 last week and at Riviera has a T-2, and T-39 the last two years. He's projected to finish in the top-20 40% of the time, top-10 25%, and top-5 15%.
Middle-Priced Players
Phil Mickelson ($9,900) - Mickelson has been playing tremendous golf of late after T-5 at Phoenix and runner-up last week. He's played here three times since 2012 and has a runner-up, T-21, and T-34 last year. He's also terrific putting on Poa greens ranking sixth over the last 24 rounds.
Daniel Berger ($9,200) - He's seventh in my overall rankings, but has only played here once in 2016 missing the cut. He was T-11 two weeks ago at Phoenix and is number one in putting Poa greens over the last eight rounds.
Alex Noren ($8,700) - This will be his first time competing at the Genesis Open. He is trying to make his way on the PGA Tour this year and so far it's been good. He was runner-up at the Farmers and T-21 at Phoenix two weeks ago. He has been less than 10% owned the past two tourneys and if that number is projected to be around 15% this time around, which is solid.
Bill Haas ($8,100) - Each week he has continued to improve. He opened up 2018 with cuts at the Sony and Career Builder, and then placed T-54 at the Farmers and T-26 the Phoenix Open. He's had a mixed history here with 4/6 cuts since 2012. He won in 2012, T-3 in 2013, and was T-11 last year.
He has withdrawn after being involved in a scary multi-vehicle fatal crash. Let's hope he recovers quickly and wishing him all the best.
Brendan Steele ($7,900) - He's made six consecutive cuts at Riviera with one Top-10. He did not play last week, but was T-3 two weeks ago in Phoenix.
Bubba Watson ($7,800) - It's like the golf world forgot him after he won two green jackets. But I think this is the year he reminds people why he's a two-time Masters champ. He's off back-to-back made cuts at the Phoenix Open and Pebble last week and now comes to a venue where he's won twice the past four years. He's projected to be 10% owned.
I take back everything I said about Watson. He would rather play in a stupid meaningless NBA All-Star Celebrity Game than play in the Genesis Open. It's clear where his intentions lie. No wonder why he hasn't won a tournament since 2015, and hasn't had a top-20 finish in a major since the Masters in 2014, that's 15 consecutive missed cuts.
Thomas Pieters ($7,700) - This will be his PGA Tour debut and it's the perfect venue for him after he was runner-up last year. He last played three weeks at Dubai where he was T-32. Pieters has also gained over a stroke putting on Poa surfaces.
Kevin Chappell ($7,700) - Big big fan of him. He doesn't shy away from the moment and isn't afraid to go for it. He's alternated making the cut with missing it at Riviera since 2012 and last year he missed it so that's good news for this year. He has two top-10's in 2018 including T-8 last week.
Ollie Schienderjans ($7,600) - One of the only pros on tour who doesn't wear a hat. He took off last week, but already has a top-5 in 2018 at Phoenix. He was T-8 last year, his first time playing in the Genesis Open and is a good putter on Poa.
Keegan Bradley ($7,600) - The St. John's alum has made the cut five of the past six years including two top-5's. He's made all three cuts in 2018 and I expect him to make it four in a row.
Jason Kokrak ($7,500) - He's 5/6 in cuts made and 3/3 in 2018. He was also runner-up in 2016 at Riviera.
Adam Scott ($7,400) - Scotty is one of my favorite plays this week and I am shocked at this price. He's third in my rankings at Riviera and it's not like he's been bad here; T-17 in 2012, T-10 in '13, DNP in '14 and '15, runner-up in 2016 and T-11 last year. I am going to throw Scott in around 80% of my lineups because this price is absurd. He's projected to be around 10% owned and if that's the case, he's a lock for GPP and cash plays.
Charley Hoffman ($7,400) - This is a CBS Sportsline play. He withdrw last week, but has made five consecutive cuts at Riviera with a T-4 last year.
Low-Priced Players
Jimmy Walker ($7,200) - Another player's price that is a joke. He's second in putting on Poa greens through the last 24 rounds. He's made 5/6 cuts including a top-5. I'm not sure how his price goes down $500 after a T-11 last week, but I'm all about Walker at this price.
Sangmoon Bae ($7,100) - He was cut at the Sony, Career Builder, Farmers, and Phoenix, but seemed to turn it around last week with a T-15. He played here from 2013-15 had two T-8's and a T-12. He's also been really good on Poa greens so this price makes no sense.
William McGirt ($7,100) - He's made three cuts in a row here and all have been inside the top-20.
James Hann ($7,100) - He won here in 2015 and that's a man reason I'll be picking him.
K.J. Choi ($7,000) - After missing three cuts in a row, he finally bounced back with a T-26 last week. He has made six consecutive cuts at Riviera including a top-5 and two top-20's.
Scott Brown ($7,000) - He's number one in putting on Poa greens through the past 12 rounds. While he was cut in Phoenix and Pebble last week, he was runner-up at Riviera last year.
Martin Laird ($6,900) - He did not play last week and was T-9 in Phoenix. He was T-11 two years ago and T-8 last year at Riviera.
Cameron Tringale ($6,700) - He's had an up-and-down year, but has made six consecutive cuts at Riviera including T-8 last year.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
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