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Mike's Week 9 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, October 21, Wednesday, October 22, Thursday, October 23, and Friday, October 24, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 8 saw eight top 25 teams lose. Half of those were top 10 teams. UAB fired its coach and took down the Group of 5 favorite Memphis. Auburn keeps finding ways to lose. There were bad beats galore with Michigan State screwing over a lot of people. It was carnage, which is just what college football fans like.
We are down to 53 games this week, with eight of them taking place before Saturday. There are no FBS vs. FCS matchups, so it's a nice and proper week!
This Friday isn't as exciting as last week's, but few Fridays are. Both ranked teams in action lost. It also made sure that I got off to a lackluster start.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 9
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
Kennesaw State (-3.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Come on, it's Vice Night with FIU sporting the Miami Vice uniforms. Can they really lose this?
Pick: Florida International +3.5
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Blake Baker is questionable for the Bulldogs, but Maverick McIvor was terrible last week. I feel a bounce back here.
Pick: Western Kentucky +3.5
Middle Tennessee State at Delaware (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. Delaware has proven to be a force in Conference USA already. There's enough juice on this number to make me think Vegas is right.
Pick: Delaware -8.5
Missouri State (-1.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bears nearly lost outright to Middle Tennessee State before the bye in Murfreesboro. I can't trust them in essentially the same situation against a better team.
Pick: New Mexico State +1.5
South Alabama (-6.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Alabama is 1-6 on the season, yet has been favored in every Sun Belt game. They're not covering this either, and may lose outright again.
Pick: Georgia State +6.5
North Texas (-26.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Temple covered this line last week in Charlotte, and that offense isn't nearly as potent as North Texas.
Pick: North Texas -26.5
California at Virginia Tech (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is actually up two points. There's almost no juice in the Virginia Tech side, which means Vegas is trying to get us to bet on the Hokies. After the way Cal looked against a cooked North Carolina team, I'll gladly oblige.
Pick: Virginia Tech -4.5
Boise State (-21.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh...I hate that hook, and Nevada has played a lot better lately. Are they better at home than UNLV on the road? Doubtful. I guess I have to swallow the hook and go with Boise.
Pick: Boise State -21.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I know this week was better than last week, but I also know that I was burned by a lot of close games just in the ones I've watched so far. I'm just trying to break even at this point.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
New Mexico State at Liberty (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was pure luck that the Flames won this game. New Mexico State outplayed them in their own stadium.
Arkansas State at South Alabama (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of the sloppiest football games that I've ever watched. The teams combined for 14 penalties in the first half.
Florida International at Western Kentucky (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The 2024 version of the Western Kentucky run defense showed up in this one. I've been waiting for this game from Kejon Owens all season!
Kejon Owens an absolute baller.
195 rushing yards, 8.8 YPC, TD
Guys been just consistent back the last three seasons and FIU and exactly what you want to see in a G5 RB that sticks around with your program.
Type of player you don’t see much anymore.
pic.twitter.com/iKLEgS2RRw— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) October 15, 2025
Delaware (-2.5) at Jacksonville State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
FBS expansion finally showed us what would happen in a chicken fight between a Gamecock and a Blue Hen. It ended much like we would expect.
UTEP (-2.5) at Sam Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's a low-water mark for your program when you get blown out by UTEP at home.
Tulsa at East Carolina (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
ECU controlled the game and still didn't cover. Baylor Hayes is going to be good for Tulsa in the near future.
Louisville at (2) Miami (FL) (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I had a feeling this would happen. Louisville overcame the road crowd and ACC officials to beat another top 5 team. Do you think Penn State is looking hard at Jeff Brohm yet? Look at this resumé.
Jeff Brohm is the KING of Upsets in College Football 🐐
2025 - W @ #2 Miami (24-21)
2024 - W vs. #11 Clemson (33-21)
2023 - W vs. #10 Notre Dame (33-20)
2021 - W vs. #3 Michigan State (40-29)
2021 - W vs. #2 Iowa (24-7)
2018 - W vs. #2 Ohio State (49-20) pic.twitter.com/x9L83EdqXJ— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 18, 2025
Matt Rhule had to lose to Minnesota again to prove that he didn't really want the Penn State job. That's how this works, right? Carson Beck is too talented to have the lapses that he did in this game. He threw two interceptions on one drive. That takes...uh...talent.
(25) Nebraska (-7.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Some people have an issue with field storming. I still don't. Let the students have some fun so long as no one gets hurt. Most of the time, the field rushers are cognizant of the opposing team and usually leave them alone. Proof of that is when Squirrel White wasn't trampled in Charlottesville a couple of weeks ago.
Nebraska allowed more sacks (9) than they scored points (6). The offensive line was brutalized by Minnesota. Dylan Raiola made a couple of flashy plays, but Minnesota freshman Drake Lindsey looked like the more polished quarterback. If you're Nebraska, that's a huge problem.
San Jose State at Utah State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A healthy Danny Scudero may have changed this. The San Jose State offense is fun. The defense is atrocious.
North Carolina at California (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
There's nothing like fumbling out of the back of the end zone when going in for the winning touchdown. Believe it or not, that constitutes progress for the 2025 North Carolina Tar Heels.
(10) LSU at (17) Vanderbilt (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
PAVIA TO SPENCE FOR SIX pic.twitter.com/ndYjzfa3OR
— #10 Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 18, 2025
I psyched myself out of this one. I was on Vanderbilt most of the week, then I decided to go against the money. I shouldn't have.
Vanderbilt is 6-1 for the first time since 1950, and is ranked in the AP Top 10 for the first time since 1941. We are seeing things that we haven't seen in three or four generations in Nashville.
(12) Georgia Tech at Duke (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have followed the trend. I knew that Vegas still liked Tech because of the juice on them and none on Duke. The Blue Devils wasted a really good game from Darian Mensah when the defense couldn't stop Haynes King in the fourth quarter.
Tech is 7-0 for the first time since 1966. Aren't these unbalanced conference schedules fun?
Washington at Michigan (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hope you all didn't tease this line too much. We didn't need the points after all. That Michigan defense is still a strong unit.
Connecticut at Boston College (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have followed my instincts and bet a lot more on this one.
Arizona (-1.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is another one where I didn't follow the late money coming in on Houston. It's not like this was a bad beat, though. It was a close game as everyone thought. Arizona played well enough to win.
Baylor at TCU (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad I went heavy on the over and didn't mess with the spread. This was a wild ending (though not even close to the wildest) that ESPN moved to the app while it was in a weather delay, then the app crashed when everyone tried to get back on. Epic fail by ESPN.
Army at Tulane (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You want a wild ending that ESPN didn't cut off? Check this one out!
OH MY GOODNESS🤯🤯
SHAZZ PRESTON CAUGHT THAT FOR THE GO AHEAD TD WITH 27 SECONDS LEFT
📺 @ESPNCFB #BuiltToRise x @GreenWaveFB pic.twitter.com/tm4ltt43Ai
— The American (@American_Conf) October 18, 2025
I'm not even mad that I missed this pick. What a catch!
Central Michigan at Bowling Green (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I still can't believe Bowling Green laid a pterodactyl-sized egg at home in this one.
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Remember, kids, it's not MACtion unless we're sweating these bets.
(14) Oklahoma (-4.5) at South Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Here is where OU's defense ranks nationally through Week 8:
Total Defense - 1st
TFLs - 1st
Opponent first downs - 1st
Sacks - T-1st
Scoring defense - 2nd
Run defense - 3rd
3rd Downs - 3rd
Plays of 10+ yards allowed - T-3rd
Passing defense - 4thPretty good. #Sooners
— Jesse Crittenden (@JesseCrittenden) October 19, 2025
Ah, sweet revenge. Oklahoma's defense controlled the game again, and the run game looked better than it has all season. Tory Blaylock looks good as RB1. The gauntlet starts in earnest this week for Oklahoma. The SEC really hates us for putting this schedule together...
West Virginia at Central Florida (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Everyone but BYU is just beating on West Virginia for sport this year. The one year that we really need a West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State game, we don't get one. Thanks super-mega-big-ass-conference schmucks!
Kent State at Toledo (-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sure, now Toledo shows up...
Buffalo (-16.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Leave it to UMass to pick a pass off inside of a minute up by one point, and still lose. UMass hasn't won a game in 357 days.
Purdue at Northwestern (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a fitting sendoff to the little palace by the lake. I'm really going to miss this place.
Please take a moment to remember the end of an era:
This weekend was Northwestern's final game using temporary Martin Stadium while new Ryan Field is under construction; final two home games (Michigan & Minnesota) will be played at Wrigley Field in November. pic.twitter.com/H85FQo7CgL
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 19, 2025
Northwestern scored its first shutout of an FBS opponent since 2017 and started the season 5-2 for the first time since 2015. David Braun has the program healing. Part of me thinks the stadium helped. It was beautiful!
Troy (-5.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Troy is SO back, folks.
(1) Ohio State (-25.5) at Wisconsin: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The only thing that we figured out from this game is that Iowa is better than Ohio State. The Hawkeyes won 37-0 last week. Ohio State only won 34-0. Weak! This Wisconsin offense is one of the worst I've ever seen, and I've watched UMass four times this year.
Michigan State at (3) Indiana (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of many bad beats this weekend. Michigan State kicked a field goal with 38 seconds left in the game to pull within 25. I have no words...
(4) Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A&M is still winning, but they have given up over 40 points twice and over 20 points twice more...to Utah State and UTSA. The defense will be the downfall of this unofficial reign.
(5) Mississippi at (9) Georgia (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mississippi scored a touchdown on each of its first five drives. The difference is that Georgia got two fourth-quarter stops. Mississippi couldn't stop anything.
SMU at Clemson (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thankfully, I got back to lowering the bet on this because I completely backed off of it with Cade Klubnik ruled out. However, I didn't flip to SMU and I knew I should have...
Wyoming at Air Force (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm still surprised that Wyoming didn't win this outright. Kaden Anderson had a solid enough game.
UNLV at Boise State (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV got too far behind early and didn't get nearly enough offense in the second half. This was a beatdown by Boise.
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone with my gut on the half. I never thought Coastal would win outright, though.
Old Dominion at James Madison (EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew I should have bet more on this once Old Dominion lost to Marshall. Alonza Barnett III is finally in a groove after being forced to split time and series with Matthew Sluka for the first month or so.
Texas State (-2.5) at Marshall: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took double overtime, but Marshall Magic is alive and well. Brad Jackson had a monster game for Texas State, but Carlos Del Rio-Wilson had another strong game despite throwing his first interception of 2025.
Temple (-11.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was never close. I wish I hadn't chickened out and bet low.
UTSA at North Texas (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow! This was total domination of a pretty good team. UNT isn't done yet.
Akron at Ball State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ball State is still money in Muncie.
Northern Illinois at Ohio (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's that Ohio offense that we know and love (and that will win the MAC). It has been a while since a MAC team put up 48 points on NIU. The last team to do it was Toledo in 2022.
(7) Texas Tech (-7.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a tough one to take for Texas Tech. Arizona State's defense got after Will Hammond early. Hammond nearly had enough to pull out a victory here. Did Tech lose because they didn't have Morton? Maybe, but Arizona State's defense played a solid game.
(22) Memphis (-21.5) at UAB: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alex Mortenson beats a ranked team in his coaching debut in a rivalry game. You can't make this stuff up. UAB better lock him up before one of these teams with openings comes sniffing around. Yeah, he'll leave Birmingham in a few years, but it could be a really good few years of UAB football.
UAB quarterback Ryder Burton was ready for his opportunity after 3 years of waiting.
He led the Blazers to a Top 25 win in his first start and had quite a journey to get to this point.
He stated in his post game presser:
“I've been to three schools in three years and it's… pic.twitter.com/3tluufACBV
— LIGHT ON COLLEGE SPORTS (@LightOnSports) October 19, 2025
If you don't love stories like this, you'll never understand why college football is so popular and so special...and why lunatics like me get so angry when money-hungry executives do things to cheapen the game.
Mississippi State at Florida (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Florida won, and they still fired Billy Napier. Crazy folk, I tell you. Billy should have just stayed in Lafayette, where his tutelage and nice-guy persona (genuine, by the way) were appreciated.
Southern Mississippi (-3.5) at Louisiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Unfortunately, I don't think Charles Huff is long for Hattiesburg. With eight coaching jobs already open and at least one more likely to open, that's no less than 10-15 jobs opening up for one reason or another. Someone will poach him.
(8) Oregon (-17.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
For those of you who may have doubted whether Oregon was still good or if Oregon would be focused, watch this replay. It won't take long. The Ducks left no doubt.
Washington State at (18) Virginia (17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Virginia was one boneheaded play by Washington State away from losing outright. I knew this line was bogus and should have put my money where my mind was.
(21) Texas (-12.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas needed overtime to win, and still only scored 13 points. This defense is close to elite. This offense is terrible. It's not all on Arch Manning as much as people want to tear him down. The Texas offensive line has been a wreck, and they haven't been able to run the ball consistently.
It's easy to forget that Arch is a first-year starter and has never started a road game in college before this season. It's cruel and unfair to expect him to be great with a struggling line in front of him.
It would be different if Manning thought he was God's gift to football and was telling the world he was great. He's the opposite. The world was telling Arch that he was great. He just said that he was grateful for the opportunity to prove it. I dislike Texas as much as any other Oklahoma fan, but it's hard to dislike Arch. I can be upset at him for beating my team, but I can never be upset at him for how he handles himself.
He has handled this ESPN-fueled media circus as well as can be expected.
Penn State at Iowa (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa is 5-2... and still has not beaten a team with a single win in conference play. That includes UMass (0-3 in the MAC) and FCS Albany (0-3 in CAA Football). Combined conference record of 0-18.
The Big Ten West will live forever.
— Aaron Marner (@A_Mar32) October 19, 2025
Iowa blowing this cover against a first-time head coach and a first-time starting quarterback at home is the most Iowa thing ever. This was also a terrible game to watch, despite it being high-scoring for these teams. Neither quarterback threw for 100 yards in this game. These two offenses have set college football back decades...
Maryland at UCLA (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It has been a very long time since I've seen this kind of fight from a UCLA team. HIRE TIM SKIPPER NOW!
UCLA is just the third Big Ten team to lose its first four games and win its next three, joining 1963 Indiana and 2001 Penn State.
The only power conference teams to do so in the BCS/CFP era are 2001 Penn State, 2021 Florida State and 2025 UCLA.
— Ben Bolch (@latbbolch) October 19, 2025
Hawaii at Colorado State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Even Hawaii got a coach fired in 2025. Carnage, I tell you.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles have their first three-game winning streak in this rivalry, and they did it dominantly.
(11) Tennessee at (6) Alabama (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That tells me that my instincts were right. Tennessee just did bad things at the absolute worst time...like throwing a 99-yard pick-six to end the first half.
ELECTRIC ⚡️ Alabama defensive back Zabien Brown's 99-yard pick six had Bryant-Denny on another level before halftime. #RollTide pic.twitter.com/0P4pBgca5J
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) October 19, 2025
(20) USC at (13) Notre Dame (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC lost its will with Jadarian Price's kickoff return for a touchdown. They almost had this for me.
Florida Atlantic at (19) South Florida (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Byrum Brown is that dude. It's going to be really hard for anyone to beat South Florida before the CFP begins.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Can you imagine where Pitt would be if they had started the season with Mason Heintschel under center? They should have at least put him in after halftime of the Backyard Brawl just to see if it would help.
(16) Missouri (-1.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
That Auburn offense is still an absolute disaster.
Auburn football has had 12 SEC games under Hugh Freeze in which the score was either tied or separated by a single possession with 6+ minutes left in regulation
the Tigers are 2-10 in those games, and they lost a fourth-quarter lead in half of them — including five of the losses pic.twitter.com/loaaPskEoo
— Justin Ferguson (@JFergusonAU) October 20, 2025
(23) Utah (-3.5) at (15) BYU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was everything you could want in a rivalry game. The crowd was so loud that you couldn't hear the two guys in the booth much of the time on the TV broadcast. Let's see your rivalry do that!
(24) Cincinnati (-21.5) at Oklahoma State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oklahoma State fans may be a lot of things, but they are never boring. It was tarps off in 231, and dozens of students in banana costumes were doing a conga line around the stadium.
If you can't support the team when they're bad, you don't deserve them when they're good. OSU will be back at some point. I'm glad the fans are making the most of this season.
Nevada at New Mexico (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New Mexico was very lucky to win this game. Carter Jones is going to be good somewhere, but I fear it may not be at Nevada. This is the state of college football now. They may as well be the Reno Aces instead of the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Florida State (-17.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I think it's safe to say that Mike Norvell has lost this team. Here's the bad news:
Not only that, but most of his assistants have buyouts, and a new coach would cost at least $10 million per year for someone the Seminoles want. The university spent all of its money fighting to get out of the ACC. Now they can't afford the much-needed buyout. It's game over for Florida State.
College Football Betting Season Results
A horrible start to the week ended up hurting me in the long run. I rebounded to finish 29-30 on the week, putting me at 199-207 on the season. I likely lost a few points too, but I hope not.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-2 (29-20) = 9
2. 9-13 (66-82) = -32
3. 9-11 (69-62) = 21
4. 4-3 (26-33) = -28
5. 2-1 (14-10) = 20
I did well enough on the max bets, but missed too many in the middle. I lost two points on the week, leaving me 10 points down on the season.
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