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Mike's Week 6 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, October 4, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I got back on the winning side of things (but just barely) last week. This week looks a little bit easier. Those are usually the weeks that bite me again. Last week, I got a little too conservative on some picks that I was comfortable with and missed all my four-pointers in mostly bad fashion.
We have 45 total games today, which is a little lighter than a typical Saturday. Only North Carolina State is slumming this week, playing FCS Campbell. The other 44 games are FBS vs. FBS matchups.
If you'd like me to advise on the FBS vs. FCS matchup, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 6 - (10/4/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction since I am having issues finding the articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you know anything about computers and can help find defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
Kentucky at (12) Georgia (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Carolina covered this, and Georgia is likely a better team. I don't like these high spreads with Georgia. Kirby Smart is notorious for using these as practices.
Pick: Georgia -20.5
(14) Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is one where you want to shop around. This line opened with Iowa State favored by 3.5. With news that both starting corners are out for Iowa State, it has flipped to the other side. I've seen a couple of sites that still have ISU favored. However, if you like the Cyclones, I would just bet the money line on a site like FanDuel that has Cincinnati at -2.
Cincinnati is a tough team, and this is going to be close. However, the Cincinnati pass defense has struggled, and Rocco Becht is going to be playing on Sundays.
Rocco Becht is 6-0 Straight Up in his Career as a Starter when a Vegas underdog of less than a touchdown.
2023 Cincinnati (+4.5)
2023 Baylor (+2.5)
2023 Kansas State (+6.5)
2024 Iowa (+3)
2024 Miami (+4.5)
2025 Kansas State (+3.5)Iowa State is +2.5 at Cincinnati on Saturday 🌪
— Cole Converse (@c3trips) September 29, 2025
Pick: Iowa State +1.5
Wisconsin at (20) Michigan (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Maryland covered this AT Wisconsin! Are we serious right now?
Pick: Michigan -17.5
(22) Illinois (-9.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm surprised this isn't higher. Purdue lost by 16 to USC. You know, the team that Illinois beat last week. This is too low.
Pick: Illinois -9.5
Boston College at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a battle between two former Alabama quarterbacks in Eli Holstein and Dylan Lonergan. Holstein was benched last week against Louisville after two fourth-quarter turnovers. It was thought that Cole Gonzales had a chance to start this game, but Pitt is still starting Holstein. That doesn't mean they'll finish with him.
That's why I'm shocked that Pitt is favored. Desmond Reid is still listed as questionable, as he has been for the last two weeks. If Reid plays, I'll back off on this a bit. Vegas thinks he is, judging by the current spread.
Pick: Boston College +6.5
Clemson (-14.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't like the half, but Clemson's offense is still good. They can run 30 times with Adam Randall and cover this.
Pick: Clemson -14.5
Kansas State at Baylor (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Baylor hasn't been good at home. The offense is impressive. The defense is depressing. Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards are going to have a field day here. Can Sawyer Robertson and company keep up? This feels a little high, even if K-State doesn't win outright.
Pick: Kansas State +6.5
Air Force at Navy (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The first leg of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy is almost as important as the Army-Navy game. Navy is capable of covering this, but this is still a rivalry game. I have no interest in betting on this.
Pick: Air Force +12.5
Army (-6.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Black Knights for under a touchdown? Sure, I'll bite.
Pick: Army -6.5
Ohio (-14.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that half, especially in a road game. However, Ball State has allowed nine rushing touchdowns in just four games and is allowing 4.95 yards per carry. All Ohio does is run.
Pick: Ohio -14.5
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is on the way up, so catch it now if you want Tech. I would like it a lot less if it closes over a touchdown. Wake was jobbed last week, but Phillip Montgomery has turned Kyron Drones and Terion Stewart loose. This is what the Virginia Tech offense is supposed to look like.
Pick: Virginia Tech -6.5
UTSA (-6.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Dammit, I still believe! Meep meep!
Pick: UTSA -6.5
Western Michigan (-13.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Broncos beat Toledo and only lost to North Texas by three. This feels low with the way UMess has played.
Pick: Western Michigan -13.5
Oklahoma State at Arizona (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know why the line is up four points, but Baylor couldn't cover this on the road. The OSU offense puts the defense in bad situations, but we saw some fight in the Cowboys last week. This still feels high.
Pick: Oklahoma State +20.5
(7) Penn State (-24.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The good news is that blue is one of UCLA's colors, so maybe people won't know that the UCLA fans are outnumbered.
Pick: UCLA +24.5
(9) Texas (-5.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas is now a 4.5 point favorite against Florida.
The line opened Sunday at Texas -7.5 pic.twitter.com/548KI2aXJJ
— Texas Sports Unfiltered (@TSUnfiltered) October 3, 2025
The drop in this line was one of the more predictive things ever. We saw it last year. Billy Napier, on the verge of being fired, gets a new lease on life because his team wins games they have no business winning.
I get it. Texas hasn't been tested since the first week. If Week 5 was any indication, that may not be a good thing. I prefer the under 41.5 here. Both defenses are strong, and the offenses just aren't good.
I bought into it as well. I had both Florida and Texas highly ranked in my rankings coming into the season. I was high on both DJ Lagway and Arch Manning. They're young enough to still come around, but it's not going to happen here.
If you're buying the under, it's hard not to side with Florida. A low-scoring game would certainly favor the Gators. That said, I think Florida would need a defensive touchdown to avoid getting covered. I'm not sure that happens.
Pick: Texas -5.5
(16) Vanderbilt at (10) Alabama (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We are about to witness a Top 25 ranked vs. ranked Alabama and Vanderbilt football game for the FIRST time since 1937. pic.twitter.com/jhklH1B4kD
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 28, 2025
This line is just weird. There's a lot of juice at 10.5, but if you stretch it to 11.5, there's none at all on the Alabama side. Vegas seems convinced this is going to be a 35-24 game.
Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt have that swagger. This is what they have been waiting for. That said, Vandy hasn't anchored down in Tuscaloosa since 1984. I'm really torn on this one.
I tend to think that Vandy steals a close one or Alabama blows them out. I'm not sure there's an in between. The more I think about it, the more I don't think Vandy loses by double digits.
Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5
Boise State at (21) Notre Dame (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is way up. Like, five points up. That's too much.
Pick: Boise State +20.5
(24) Virginia at Louisville (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vanderbilt and Virginia are ranked in the AP Top 25 in the same week for the first time since October 20th, 1947 ⚓️⚔️ pic.twitter.com/B7ScxRcacq
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 29, 2025
Doesn't this feel like a bit of an overreaction to Virginia beating Florida State? It sure feels like it.
Pick: Louisville -6.5
Washington (-6.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be a great showdown of young quarterbacks. They are different quarterbacks, but great nonetheless. Demond Williams Jr. is more of a dual threat. He can run, and he can throw. More importantly, he can throw on the run. Malik Washington is a pocket passer with a big arm.
Williams has the better supporting cast, but I don't know. This feels like a game that Maryland needs to take that next step. They have been close a couple of times under Mike Locksley, but haven't made that step. Is this it?
Pick: Maryland +6.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Northwestern (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Come on! The Wildcats couldn't even cover UCLA by this, and I tend to think Monroe is at least as good as UCLA.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +11.5
Oregon State at Appalachian State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The winless Beavers head to the other mountains in search of a win. App State just got demolished by Boise on the Smurf Turf. This is a tough one.
Pick: Appalachian State -1.5
Syracuse at SMU (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rickie Collins was a mess against Duke last week. Then again, SMU is 0-4 against the spread and only beat Missouri State by 18. There isn't much to like about this line.
Pick: Syracuse +17.5
Florida International at Connecticut (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down four points already. I would like it even more if it drops lower, but I doubt that's the case. Delaware smacked FIU. The Blue Hens needed OT to beat UConn at home. This feels a little easier now.
Pick: Connecticut -7.5
James Madison (-20.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Dukes look as they should, with Alonza Barnett III rightfully instilled as the full-time starter.
Pick: James Madison -20.5
Central Michigan (-7.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not a big believer in the Chippewas, but installing Angel Flores as the full-time starter was long overdue. Akron is bad, even at home.
Pick: Central Michigan -7.5
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is still all over the place. I've seen it as high as 11. I like it a lot more under 10. I would lower the bet more if you have to take it over 10.
Pick: Buffalo -9.5
Miami (OH) (-4.5) at Northern Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Expect a defensive battle here, which makes it hard to take anything over a field goal. I like the under 38.5 more than the spread.
Pick: Miami (OH) -4.5
Kent State at (5) Oklahoma (-45.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm curious to see what Michael Hawkins Jr. can do, just in case he has to start against Texas. Oklahoma's defense has bordered on elite. They have to cover this, right?
Pick: Oklahoma -45.5
Michigan State at Nebraska (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska had trouble with both Brendan Sorsby and Bryce Underwood. Aidan Chiles is much like they are, except his arm isn't quite as good. This feels too high.
Pick: Michigan State +11.5
Texas State (-13.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats are solid. Arkansas State...not so much.
Pick: Texas State -13.5
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
CCU looked a lot better against South Alabama last week, but I'm not sure that means a lot.
Pick: Old Dominion -20.5
(11) Texas Tech (-11.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tech blew the doors off of Utah in Salt Lake. This shouldn't be much of a problem.
Pick: Texas Tech -11.5
UNLV (-3.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Picking a spread in Laramie used to give me anxiety. Not with this year's Wyoming team.
Pick: UNLV -3.5
South Alabama at Troy (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels like the Louisiana and Marshall line from last week. It's as high as 1.5 on either side, depending on where you look. The weird part is that there is a lot of juice on 1.5 for either side. Oddsmakers have no idea what to do with this line. It opened with Troy favored by 3, so I'm keeping it on the Troy side.
Pick: Troy -1.5
Florida Atlantic at Rice (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Rice runs more than any team in the country not named Army or Navy. FAU can't stop the run. You know where this is going...
Pick: Rice -4.5
Minnesota at (1) Ohio State (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
PJ Fleck was asked about the injury status of Darius Taylor who was listed as OUT for Rutgers.
PJ replied we'll see the Injury report two hours before kickoff.
— Dan - Gopher Insight (@GopherInsight) September 29, 2025
The Gophers might be without Darius Taylor in this one, too. As if it weren't bad enough before...
Pick: Ohio State -23.5
(3) Miami (FL) (-4.5) at (18) Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is another line that has cratered. I get it. Miami hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2019. I do expect Florida State to come out swinging in this one, but I also have Miami ranked at the top for a reason.
Pick: Miami (FL) -4.5
Mississippi State at (6) Texas A&M (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Do we really think that the Aggies are this much better than Tennessee? Or that Mississippi State is this much worse on the road? I have a hard time believing that.
Pick: Mississippi State +15.5
Colorado at TCU (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado has only played one road game all season. They lost to Houston by 16. Kaidon Salter looks good now and didn't start the Houston game. Is that enough to keep Colorado close?
Pick: Colorado +13.5
Kansas (-4.5) at Central Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Kansas defense is a problem. I promise that Jalon Daniels is more of a problem.
Why is no one talking about Jalon Daniels? 3-2 record but the QB play is STELLAR. pic.twitter.com/5unjTf09vN
— Logan (@LoganAndrew99) October 1, 2025
Pick: Kansas -4.5
Tulsa at Memphis (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Memphis truly is the class of the American and wants that playoff berth, they need to cover these.
Pick: Memphis -20.5
Duke (-2.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This has the makings of a great game...so long as Duke's East Coast clocks aren't upset by the extra-late kickoff. That's going to make me lower the bet.
Pick: Duke -2.5
Nevada at Fresno State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
With the way that E.J. Warner is playing, this feels high. Would I bet it? Not a chance!
Pick: Nevada +13.5
I'm living large in the middle this week with 36 of the 50 picks for either two or three points. I have six each of the four-pointers and single points. I maxed out two bets this week. I thought there would be more, but there's no going back now!
Good luck out there! This is a big weekend! It's time for redemption!
