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Mike's Week 11 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, November 4, Wednesday, November 5, Thursday, November 6, and Friday, November 7, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Three more top 10 teams fell last week. We are at the point of the season where most paper tigers have been exposed, but not all. Some won't get a chance to be exposed.
We are down to 51 games this week, but MACtion begins! It's not all bad. Nine of those games take place before Saturday. One team (Mississippi) is feasting on a cupcake this week.
We've got some good midweek DFS slates this time around to go with the betting. Keep an eye out for those as well!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 11
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Massachusetts at Akron (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Strangely enough, this feels low. That's how bad UMass is.
Pick: Akron -9.5
Miami (OH) at Ohio (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ohio Football will take the nation's 4th longest home winning streak into the Battle of the Bricks week.
Miami is the only team to beat Ohio on Frank Solich Field since 2022. pic.twitter.com/h5L40E3sVQ
— WOUB Bobcat Showcase (@BobcatShowcase) November 1, 2025
The Battle of the Bricks is always a fun rivalry. There have been many home winning streaks ended this season, and the Redhawks know how to win in Athens. I don't think it happens in the last Battle of the Bricks for Sieh Bangura and Parker Navarro.
Pick: Ohio -2.5
Kent State at Ball State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ball State is 3-0 at home this year, including a win over MAC heavyweight Ohio. This is too low.
Pick: Ball State -1.5
Northern Illinois at Toledo (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I hate that hook, and I hate trying to bet on Toledo covering. The Rockets lost to freaking Bowling Green, who just lost to Buffalo at home.
Pick: Northern Illinois +14.5
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mountaineers are not playing well of late, and Georgia Southern has talent on offense.
Pick: Georgia Southern +6.5
UTSA at South Florida (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the hook, but UTSA is 1-3 on the road against the spread with only Texas A&M failing to cover in the opener. I don't think they can handle Byrum Brown.
Pick: South Florida -14.5
Houston at Central Florida (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
West Virginia beat Houston by turning over Conner Weigman and limiting Dean Connors. UCF can't do either of those things.
Pick: Houston +1.5
Northwestern at (20) USC (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Northwestern's defense had moderate success against Oregon's passing game. They should against USC as well.
Pick: Northwestern +14.5
Tulane at (22) Memphis (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tulane can only play spoiler now after losing in the Alamodome last week. Memphis has been money at home, but I have a feeling about this one.
Pick: Tulane +6.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I think I had a decent week, even though I didn't believe in my team. So it goes.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
UTEP at Kennesaw State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
To paraphrase Ghostbusters, we came, we Kennesaw, we kicked its ass.
James Madison (-6.5) at Texas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
JMU is hanging around, just outside of the Top 25, waiting for the American Conference to cannibalize itself. Boy, what a win over Louisville would have done for this team...
Jacksonville State (-6.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took a miracle for Jacksonville State to pull this out in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders are playing better, but that hasn't translated into wins yet.
Florida International at Missouri State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A few notes on Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard:
— Is now 6-0 in October the last two seasons
— The most recent win was the school’s first-ever home victory over an FBS opponent
— Is 5-1 this year vs. non-P4 opponents, including three straight wins https://t.co/vR2xTzanGc pic.twitter.com/2YsTOBex95— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) November 3, 2025
I hope the Missouri State fans keep this intensity even after the novelty of 2025 has worn off.
Marshall (-5.5) at Coastal Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's the Carlos Del Rio-Wilson that Syracuse fans warned everyone about. He turned it over four times. Coastal quarterback Samari Collier only completed eight of 20 passes, and the Chanticleers still won by 17.
Tulane (-3.5) at UTSA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still don't trust the UTSA defense, but I should have trusted their home dominance. The Roadrunners have not lost a conference home game under Jeff Traylor (24-0, including CUSA Championship Games in 2021 and 2022).
(25) Memphis (-13.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I swear that Brendon Lewis plays better when he's hurt...
North Carolina at Syracuse (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This may have been Gio Lopez's best college performance. The Rickie Collins experiment may not be over after all. Freshman Joseph Filardi completed just four of 18 pass attempts for 39 yards in this one. Ouch!
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know what I was worried about. Somehow, Sam Houston still manages to be worse on the road.
Penn State at (1) Ohio State (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Penn State looked better under an interim coach, but that's not saying much. Ethan Grunkemeyer had no chance in this one.
(9) Vanderbilt at (20) Texas (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I told you not to take that 3.5! All told, it never should have been this close. It was an epic defensive meltdown on the part of Texas to even make this a game. The Longhorns dominated the first three quarters.
(10) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at SMU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not even a little bit surprised that SMU won outright. Not having to play games outside of your state until November is generally a bad idea.
The Hurricanes have a .774 winning percentage in August-October under Mario Cristobal. They have a .286 winning percentage in November and December. James Franklin was fired for less.
West Virginia at (22) Houston (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Uh, I think it's safe to say that West Virginia has found its quarterback. Scotty Fox Jr. abused the Houston defense.
Rutgers at Illinois (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was never a game. This Illinois offense is still a talented bunch.
Duke at Clemson (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke QB Darian Mensah by the numbers nationally -
Passing yards per game - 2nd
Completions per game - 4th
Passing yards - 5th
Passing efficiency - 7th
Passing TDs - 7thBoth bye weeks are behind him. pic.twitter.com/pQHF4ZvurC
— Blue Devil Nation (@BlueDevilNation) November 3, 2025
Darian Mensah is what everyone thought Cade Klubnik would be in 2025.
Central Florida at Baylor (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Just when you think no one is paying attention, the Baylor defense goes out and dominates.
UAB at Connecticut (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UConn was on. More people need to be talking about Joe Fagnano. Sure, this is the perfect offense for him, but he could have a future as a backup in the NFL. That's unheard of from UConn.
UConn QB Joe Fagnano is having a TREMENDOUS Season
2025 Stats
• 2,529 Passing yards
• 22 Passing TDs 0 INTs
• 68.8 % Completion Percentage
• 91 Rushing yards 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/gWYU8sNTrC— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) November 3, 2025
Fagnano still has not thrown an interception, and he has thrown at least 25 passes in every game. Colby Cameron of Louisiana Tech in 2012 was the last quarterback to not throw an interception in a full season with over 300 pass attempts.
Army at Air Force (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maybe Army wasn't far better, but this game was everything that you would expect in a game between service academies. The Commander-in-Chief Trophy will again go to the winner of the Army-Navy game.
Navy at North Texas (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
North Texas is going to need some help, but they are still alive in the College Football Playoff discussion. It doesn't hurt that the American might be better than the ACC this year, but no one wants to talk about that.
Buffalo at Bowling Green (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the kind of ineptitude we have to look forward to from the Falcons during MACtion.
Arizona State at Iowa State (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't care if Rocco Becht is hurt. There is no reason to be losing to a team that is starting Jeff Sims at quarterback, especially when you're the home team! What a disastrous season for the Cyclones. How do you allow 228 rushing yards to a quarterback?
East Carolina (-5.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. I even had ECU ranked in the "next 25" last week. ECU became the first team to pick off Evan Simon in 2025.
(16) Louisville (-10.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The hook didn't hook.
New Mexico at UNLV (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
My instincts were right. The UNLV defense has been living dangerously all season. They are wasting a great 2025 for Anthony Colandrea.
(2) Indiana (-21.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Curt Cignetti's teams do not get complacent. This is a team on a mission, and should be the top-ranked team in the CFP rankings tonight.
(5) Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Rivalries get weird. We know this. We may have to have an uncomfortable discussion about the state of the Georgia defense.
(12) Notre Dame (-27.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, this might be the worst Notre Dame has looked all season. That's not a good look when one of your "good" losses falls apart once again.
(13) Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Someone needs to say this for all of the SEC homers: Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. This defense is dominant!
Michigan State at Minnesota (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half...
Pittsburgh (-14.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I would like to thank Stanford for not going for two in the fourth quarter. The bettors thank you!
Delaware at Liberty (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, where did that come from? Liberty hasn't scored 59 points in a game since they dropped 62 on UMass in 2021.
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Will Maverick McIvor even get his job back? Freshman Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw four touchdown passes in his second career start. McIvor hasn't done that this year.
Fresno State at Boise State (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's another long home winning streak snapped. Washington, Oregon, and Georgia all had theirs snapped this season. Boise joins the list, thanks to an early injury to Maddux Madsen.
Old Dominion (-16.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a reason that I left this alone...
Louisiana at South Alabama (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How do the Cajuns lose to Rice, then beat South Alabama in Mobile? This team is impossible to read. How about Lunch Winfield in this one? He only had one incompletion in 15 attempts.
(15) Virginia (-5.5) at California: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wahoo fans needed to give their tickers some rest. Virginia hadn't won a game by more than one score since September 20.
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess this is par for the SEC course. The bottom of the SEC may be kind of bad, but at least it's really entertaining. You can't say the same for the bottom of the Big Ten.
Oklahoma State at Kansas (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Zane Flores FINALLY got a touchdown pass! The Pokes still lost, but there are moderate signs of life.
Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm at a loss for words. Western loves to run the ball, but wasn't having much success with it.
South Carolina at (7) Mississippi (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The entire state of South Carolina is a disappointment in 2025.
Purdue at (21) Michigan (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
You can't even blame this on the absence of Justice Haynes. Jordan Marshall ran for 185 yards and three touchdowns. What more do you want from him? Bryce Underwood's recent struggles are a problem.
Arizona (-4.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Things are awfully quiet out there in Boulder. No one wants Deion Sanders fired, but they aren't happy either. It's a weird kind of silence.
Colorado is in good hands with QB Julian Lewis🙏🦬 #SkoBuffs pic.twitter.com/GhC5NJb2b1
— GUCCE🦬🐦⬛ (@gucceCU) November 3, 2025
Coach Prime is turning to Julian Lewis, likely for the rest of the season. Colorado has nothing else to lose. I'm shocked that Kaidon Salter didn't work out for the Ralphies. He was stellar at Liberty.
Wyoming at San Diego State (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Beating Wyoming by 17 was basically a blowout, but this is the sloppiest the Aztecs have played since the loss to Washington State.
(8) Georgia Tech (-5.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tech's days of living dangerously finally caught up to them. The defense couldn't stop the Pack at all.
(18) Oklahoma at (14) Tennessee (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Oklahoma passing game is still a bit of a disappointment, and the defense gave up a ton of yards. The difference was the turnovers and the run game. John Mateer looked better in the second half of this game than he has all season.
Oklahoma still has an outside shot at the playoff, but that just explains the ridiculousness of an expanded playoff. Oklahoma is not a championship-caliber team, and this is coming from an Oklahoma fan. 12 teams lead to a watered-down postseason.
(23) USC (-4.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It wasn't a win for Nebraska, but the offense was a total disaster after Dylan Raiola left. With Raiola now done for the season, Nebraska may not win another game.
Kentucky at Auburn (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew this line was bogus. I also knew that Auburn wouldn't score 10 points. Another coach bites the dust, and this one likely should have been fired at least a month ago.
Washington State (-3.5) at Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is no way that Oregon State should have won this game, passing for just 60 yards on 12 completions. The Beavers should have moved on from Maalik Murphy long before this, but Gabbari Johnson wasn't much better.
Wake Forest at Florida State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the first game in which Wake trailed at the half this season. That says something about the schedule...
Arkansas State at Troy (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy got throttled in the first quarter and had to abandon the run. That ruins this offense.
(17) Cincinnati at (24) Utah (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a statement by Utah. The Cincinnati offense still got the yards, but turnovers and special teams doomed the Bearcats.
Hawaii at San Jose State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
As expected, this was a fun game. Danny Scudero is making people forget about Nick Nash.
Least talked about star of this season? @SanJoseStateFB WR Danny Scudero. Last night vs Hawaii:
7 rec, 215 yds & 2 TD
1st in FBS in rec yds, T-2nd in rec TD and 4th in receptions15 catches of 30+ yards. 5 more than anyone else. And no player in last 7 seasons has more than 18 pic.twitter.com/nXNCpTBW7B
— So, About that Stat… (@soaboutthatstat) November 2, 2025
College Football Betting Season Results
I started well enough, but had a rough afternoon. I rebounded later in the night to make it respectable, but I slipped under .500 at 25-27 for the week. My season total is now at 250-261. I'm running out of time to get back in the black. I likely lost points as well.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-3 (36-27) = 9
2. 6-10 (81-104) = -46
3. 10-7 (86-76) = 30
4. 4-6 (35-41) = -24
5. 1-1 (17-13) = 20
I lost six points this week to put me at -11 on the season. I gained back nearly everything that I lost in Week 4, but I'm giving some back in recent weeks.
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