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Breakouts and undervalued draft targets for fantasy baseball. Connor McEleney identifies infielders who broke out last season but may continue improving in 2018.
In this piece I highlight four infielders who will build off their 2017 breakouts. I want to clearly indicate how each player broke out and why they’ll continue to improve.
Since most of these players broke out after their age-25 season, the fantasy community is rightfully proceeding with caution on some of these guys. Travis Shaw had never been a sexy prospect, Justin Smoak underperformed his talent level for seven seasons, and Didi Gregorius was expected to regress after a solid 2016 showing.
The fact that these guys are still slept on is good for the enlightened fantasy manager. Now you have an opportunity to cash in on some great draft value. The guys listed below should be on your team all year, barring injury.
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Breakouts to Believe In
Justin Smoak (1B, TOR)
Why he broke out: Cut his strikeout rate, started hitting curveballs, stopped trying to crank homers, career-best contact rate, hit better on two-strike counts, boosted OBP and fly ball rate, received 600+ at-bats, ranked eighth in barrels per plate appearance (min. 120 batted ball events).
Why he’ll continue to improve: A breakout season from Smoak had always been anticipated, a full healthy season will produce similar results, .378 xwOBA, made major mindset adjustments at the dish.
Smoak admitted that he came into the league thinking he needed to be a bruising power guy. In an interview with Fangraphs, he explains how he ended up making real adjustments to his approach. Instead of focusing on knocking every pitch over the fence, he tried to make solid contact to center field. Rather than giving up on two-strike counts, he boosted his two-strike contact rate. These are real fixes made by a player with real talent. He’s a lock for 30+ HR and 90 RBI. You need to draft him.
Didi Gregorius (SS, NYY)
Why he broke out: Pulled more fly balls, hit better on the road, was already a great hitter and made the right adjustment.
Why he’ll continue to improve: He’s always been a good hitter, pull-heavy adjustment is repeatable, has an everyday role in a stacked lineup, no regression red flags in profile.
He’s your guy if you like mining fantastic value in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. Since he'd always been a good major league hitter, Gregorius was just one alteration away from ascending to the next level. The adjustment he needed to make was simple: start pulling more fly balls. He ended up doing just that, and the result was five more home runs and a 107 wRC+. The moral of the story: good things happen when great hitters make the right adjustments. You should expect more of the same from Gregorius in 2018.
Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF, PHI)
Why he broke out: 31.6% HR/FB, carried over minor league dominance to the bigs, 90% contact rate.
Why he’ll continue to improve: Stellar minor league track record suggests he really is this talented, fantastic plate discipline skills carry over year-to-year, only 25-years-old.
Hoskins should’ve been on your radar before the Phillies called him up last year. If you knew what you were doing, he was on your team the instant it appeared a record-breaking stretch was manifesting. In two minor league season in 2016 and 2017, Hoskins hit a combined 57 HR with 380 R+RBI. He’d been one of the most dominant minor league sluggers of the past two years, so it came as no surprise that basically all he did was set near records once called up. Factor in the importance of age-adjusted production, his refined plate discipline skills, and a full everyday role, and you have the makings of a future superstar. Just say no to passing on Hoskins at his current ADP.
Travis Shaw (1B/3B, MIL)
Why he broke out: Improved plate discipline, cut his swing rate, hit fewer fly balls.
Why he’ll continue to improve: Made true approach adjustments, locked into a potent lineup, will be 28 in April.
Raise your hand if you saw Shaw’s 2017 breakout coming. No one? I thought so. He’s not a flashy player and his name doesn’t resonate with casual fans, but this guy can flat-out hit. Shaw’s hard hit rate skyrocketed, his slugging percentage rose to .513, and his BB/K ratio reached a career high in 2017. These are the things we want to see from a blossoming slugger. If you were one of the few remaining Travis Shaw zealots who believed in him after 2016, pat yourself on the back for sticking with him. Don’t anticipate any major regression from Shaw, either. He’s locked into an extremely talented Brewers lineup and there’s enough statistical proof to label him as a polished stud major league hitter. I bet that your league’s best managers are planning to take him right at his ADP. They probably think they don’t need to reach for him. Prove them wrong on draft day when you steal him in the eighth round.
