Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 Valpsar Championship

Scottie Scheffler is a cheat code when the putter works and when it doesn't, well, he can still win golf tournaments. The guy tweaked his neck and then was taped up like Jason Kelce and still managed to win a golf tournament of the highest demands. Despite doing the back-to-back piggyback, winning back-to-back tournaments in the space of two weeks and then winning The PLAYERS back-to-back for the first time in that tournament's illustrious history.

When he wins tournaments, Scottie reminds me of that big, lovable golden Lab that has been the only dog in the family for the first six years of his life who then has to deal with a new puppy that becomes part of the family and simply won't stop getting in his face, despite not being that big of a problem, more so an inconvenience. We had two puppies in the form of Clark and Harman, yet no matter how hard either bit and clawed, Scheffler's historic tee-to-green fluffy armor barely felt their feeble efforts to be the new dog on the block. Scottie Scheffler, the most feared dog on the planet ... an adorable golden Lab.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Scottie Scheffler

Since we only have two outrights this week, I spared my fingers the marathon that was writing up 18 outrights in the last two weeks. I want to try highlight the level that Scottie Scheffler is playing at, and despite his ridiculously short odds every week, he has been the most profitable golfer to bet since the beginning of 2023. In order to match that return of $$$, you would need to have bet on Nick Taylor (3rd), Tommy Fleetwood (4th), and JT Poston (5ht) each week to return $2,804, which is still $7 shy of Scheffler.

The last twelve months of golf, not including Matchplay and smaller field events, Scheffler would have returned $1,050 in the top-20 market. The FedEx St. Jude would have been one of only two instances he never cashed your $100 for your T20, losing $400 in the process. His top-10 market has been almost as efficient, only missing out on four top-10s in 19 starts, finishing inside the top-5 a dozen times in that same time span. Scheffler's placement market remains a wagon that we need to jump on until things start to look much different to what they do in his current form.

The wild thing about thing about Scheffler in the outright market, is that betting him every week would have lost you -$128 since 2023 and -$87 over the last 12 months. He simply has not won enough at 7-1 odds to return a profit. He now has won seven full-field tournaments since 2022, with the Masters being the only event he has not won twice (API, PLAYERS, WMPO). Scheffler's 5-1 Masters future looms ominously on the Azalea horizon, and as somebody with one or two Masters futures, that price is just a painful step too far.

Recap of Last Week

Wyndham Clark (and us) would have a win and a 3-man playoff on his resume in the last two weeks had Scottie Scheffler not existed. Scottie Scheffler T10 will be on our cards going forward for the foreseeable future. Having the T5s on Clark and Harman came in clutch as well. Shane Lowry had a heroic Sunday to back door a T19 and Doug Ghim notched his 5th consecutive T20 at +333. Matthieu Pavon played terribly, but not as Terribly as Hojgaard, cashing that matchup on Friday despite both missing the cut.

Breaking $100: +$12.42 profit

❌Outrights (-$10)
- Clark
- Harman

✅Placements (+$17.42)
- Harman T5 +850
- Clark T5 +650
- Scheffler T10 -138
- Lowry T20 +150
- Ghim T20 +333

✅Matchup (+$10)
- Pavon OVER Hojgaard -110

❌Hit 3 of 4 legs of the Parlay...

Notes:

I…

— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 17, 2024

Our farewell fiver had Russell Henley fail to beat Steve Stricker and Brice Garnett in R1 to ruin our +2544 parlay which has been one of our favorite bets, having hit it twice since the RSM. We have another 4-legger this week at 33-1 odds!!!

Outrights ($10)

The outright market is becoming like a battle royal throughout the course of a Monday, with crowd favorites getting tossed out of the ring before the majority of bettors can get their hands on fair outright numbers. It is becoming more and more important to have your research done before the week begins so that you can pounce on any numbers before the likes of Brian Harman are hammered from 35-1 all the way down to 22.

If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord, where you will have access to my early bets if you use code MANIAC to save yourself 10%. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them, too, along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!

I am so excited to just type up two outrights for the week.

Sam Burns $6.32 (12-1 FanDuel --> Now 14-1 on DraftKings)

I really didn't even give this bet much thought. For the last few weeks, I was always going to bet Sam Burns at a golf course he has four top-12 finishes in five appearances, including two wins. Burns has not missed a cut this year and the T45 and T30 he has leading into this event are probably the reason we are not betting only Sam Burns at 9-1. Had he continued to rattle off top-10s, +1200 is not a line we can bet this week. It is still really short, but if we have seen anything from Scottie Scheffler, some guys are just more comfortable on certain courses.

We have some really good 2024 form entering the week. If we add that to his course history, it was one of those scenarios where you Keep. It. Simple. Stupid. Of the four names sub 20-1, he gives me the most belief that if he finds himself in contention to win this week, he will finish the job. He has gained a whopping 34 strokes on the greens here in 20 rounds, an average of +1.7 per round! In fact, four of his 18 best weeks putting have come at Innisbrook. Two of his four best have come here too!

Let's dive into this a little more. Since 2017, only 8 other golfers have putted better at a specific venue (min 8 rounds). If we remove the guys with only 8 rounds, Burns (+1.70) sits a blade of grass behind Todd (+1.72 @ Wells Fargo). But, Brendon Todd is a historically good putter, which is not the worst person to have ahead of you on this list. Looking at golfers with at least 20 rounds somewhere, Burns has gained +0.3 more strokes on average than next best, Andrew Putnam (+1.38 @ The Sony).

I filtered on every of the four biggest strokes gained categories to see if Burns leads all of them who have 20+ rounds. He does not. Hideki Matsuyama has gained +1.80 strokes on approach at 20 US Opens with ShotLink data since 2017. But, that's it, nobody other than Hideki has gained more strokes in a specific area, at a specific venue/event they have 20 rounds of golf at. Rory leads OTT at the US Open (+1.37) and Harold Varner III has gained the most strokes around the greens in 20 PGA Championships.

These are truly some historic putting splits from Burns at this venue and having gained on the greens in every start in 2024, the putter is purring patiently, eagerly waiting its opportunity to pounce on these greens and sink his claws further into the history books of prolific putting around the Snake Pit. Let's get that third win, Sammy!

Brian Harman $2.17 (35-1 FanDuel --> Now 22-1)

If you are looking at Harman's last 24 rounds of golf, it will look good. However, what he has done over the last 8 rounds of golf has been something should scare a lot of golfers looking to win on the PGA Tour. In his last two events Harman has gained 16 strokes on approach. His irons are scorching hot right now. He had the third best week on approach in his T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and gained 10 strokes on approach last week in his T2 at the PLAYERS. That is not a typo. 10 strokes on approach.

His performance on approach at the PLAYERS was the 89th best week on approach since 2017 (30,355 rounds) and the sixth best approach performance at the PLAYERS. A truly impressive week on approach that likely does not repeat itself, but 80% of the 89th best week on approach is more than acceptable heading into conditions that are rather similar to that of the Open Championship, which Harman will be defending later this year.

Amidst a few of the missed cuts at this venue, Harman also has a T5 here in 2022 which is another box checked. He knows how to get the job done here, despite his lack of consistency being a bit of a concern. With weather expectations becoming clearer closer to the start of the event, the wind is expected to blow rather intensely for at least two of the four days, making Harman's scrappy short game even more important in those rounds.

💰Brian Harman 35-1 (now 25...)

🔥Last 8 rounds --> +16 strokes on approach
📈T2 & T12 last two starts
🐴T5 @ValsparChamp in 2022
🥸His iron play is trending REALLY hard right now pic.twitter.com/jNv2KvJMva

— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 18, 2024

Live Add? 50-1 $1.52

I am going to have my eye on Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. Both can play exceptional golf in the wind, and with winds looking strong over the course of the weekend, if they barely make the cut, they can win this thing from way behind if things get nasty out there.

Placings ($75)

Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.

The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won in the last 12 months, and the green column is the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.

Matchups ($15)

$15 Brian Harman over Min Woo Lee -140 (DK)

Bonus Bet ($10)

Winning Score OVER 268.5 +100 @ FanDuel (posted this in the discord last night as it is now -140).

💰Winning Score OVER 268.5 +100 @ FanDuel

2017 - 270
2018 - 274
2019 - 276
*2021 - 267
*2022 - 267
2023 - 274

*Wind did not get above 12mph in any of those 8 rounds

Friday and Sunday look BRUTAL with winds 18mph+

Field has only managed to shoot under par when wind never… pic.twitter.com/1sFMTlDOsh

— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 19, 2024

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $167.69 (DraftKings)

Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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