RADIO
Scottie Scheffler has learnt how to putt, or so it seems. As a result we have got some really good odds down the board to lean into. So much so that we have 10 outrights going this week.
If Scheffler returns to planet earth and just finishes inside the top-10 like we have come to know, we are confident in our 10 guys to get across the line for us in the 50th PLAYERS Championship.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
I have been dreading typing up this article because I knew I had to hold myself accountable and reflect on the disaster that was last week. It wasn't the worst week from a pretournament perspective. We would have lost $25 had we not bet any live bets. We blew our entire $100 on live bets that should never have happened. We lost $50 on a bunch of +500 hole score bets and that we felt we had an edge on, but lost all 10 bets. It only got worse from there, as we bet Tom Kim's over on the only round he shot under par on the windiest day of the week. It was attrocious bank roll management and we must learn our lesson from this.
Going forward, outside of any round leader bets or outright adds, we are going to limit our exposure to return 1 unit. That way the natural success rate of the bet is determining the amount we bet on it, to avoid losing half our budget in a single day on a bunch of hole bets.
💰Breaking $100: -$127.33 loss
Outrights -$7.69
🙃Wyndham ClarkPlacements - $12,64
✅Scheffler T10
✅Byeong Hun An T10
✅Zalatoris T5Farewell Fiver -$5
❌+2100 6-ball parlay☠️Live Adds (-$107...)
- R1 Hole Bets -$16
- R2 Xander T20 -$11.50
- R2 Hole Bets - $50
-R3 Tom… https://t.co/oUN1sQP0w9 pic.twitter.com/RMv2rKoIw2— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 10, 2024
Outrights ($10)
The outright market is becoming like a battle royal throughout the course of a Monday, with crowd favorites getting tossed out of the ring before the majority of bettors can get their hands on fair outright numbers. It is becoming more and more important to have your research done before the week begins so that you can pounce on any numbers before the likes of Tom Hoge are hammered from 100-1 all the way down to 60. I do a Sunday Night Research Stream at 9ET, where I deep dive into the most likely winners for the upcoming week. After the show ends, I add time stamps for each golfer that was covered so you can use it as a research tool if listening to me for 3.5 hours is not your cup of tea (I commend those of you who do... LoL)
If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord, where you will have access to my early bets if you use code MANIAC to save yourself 10%. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them, too, along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
If my fingers thought last week was brutal with 8 outrights, we decided to bet 10 this week, still keeping pretty close to our 7 X return as we started our card at 33-1 and had half the card at 90-1. As I mentioned in the discord, the overarching theme is that of really good form with skill sets that fit this course.
Max Homa $2.09 (33-1 FanDuel)
💰Max Homa 33-1 (FD)
📈T8 @APinv
😍Putter is heating up (3rd @ API)
🐴Course History: T6 ('23) T13 ('22)
🍼Daddy Day Car Revenge Tour: 3-11-24 --> TBD https://t.co/2lWmqpdAhX pic.twitter.com/5jKpan9eHe— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
We have been monitoring Max Homa's putter the last few weeks, because he goes as his putter goes. In his last seven rounds he has gained putting in all them to the tune of 10+ strokes putting. Now, his approach play really hasn't done much since the farmers, which would be a concern had Homa not averaged a stroke on approach in his 11 rounds at the PLAYERS dating back to 2020. The approach shots on this course seem to fit his eye, which could make for a Florida fiesta of approach play and putting, leading Homa to his first win of 2024.
Max has also not lost strokes off the tee in any of his eight rounds since 2022, which leaves me feeling rather optimistic about the convergence of his recent short game with his historical ball striking. Our lead batter on the card has finished T13 and T6, looking to improve on that this year, etching his name into some of the richest non-major history books along with a clean $4.5 million as the winner of the PLAYERS Championship.
Wyndham Clark $1.98 (35-1 BetRivers)
💰Wyndham Clark 35-1 @BetRivers
📈1st @attproam
📈2nd @APinv
🎯3rd Weighted Good Shot %
🥸Gained +4.82 SG OTT @ 2023 Players (T27)
📈4th in SG Putting @APinv
🥷Strong Field Assassin
💅Lord of the Thick Lies pic.twitter.com/SrElpEhc8x— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
The crazy part about this bet, is the fact that Clark went from 60-1 when we bet him last week to 35-1, but yet here we are, betting him again at almost half the number on a course that, theoretically, is not as good a fit for him as we would expect. Do we get Clark Kent showing up at another big event actually causing the chaos like he has done at the Wells Fargo, US Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Or will the likes of Scottie Scheffler gaining strokes putting be his Kryptonite and ground the fearless Coloradan's hopes of adding PLAYERS Champion to a resume that has rapidly become one of the best in golf over the last 12 months.
Just like Homa, success at this venue begins with momentum off the tee around the narrow, water-laden fairways of TPC Sawgrass. Despite his atrocious "accuracy off the tee" Clark has actually averaged a stroke off the tee in his last seven rounds here. He can dial it back and use his power to precisely navigate the Florida fairways by threading his driving-iron through the majority of the tighter golf holes. Clark is an exceptional Par 5 scorer, taking advantage of the 16 opportunities most Par 72 layouts offer him. If he can continue the form that notched him a second-place finish last week, with a bit of self-approved lie improvement, his ceiling is as high as a Snoop Dogg concert.
💰Wyndham Clark 35-1 @BetRivers
📈1st @attproam
📈2nd @APinv
🎯3rd Weighted Good Shot %
🥸Gained +4.82 SG OTT @ 2023 Players (T27)
📈4th in SG Putting @APinv
🥷Strong Field Assassin
💅Lord of the Thick Lies pic.twitter.com/SrElpEhc8x— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
Sahith Theegala $1.26 (55-1 FanDuel)
💰Sahith Theegala 55-1 @BetRivers (7 place EW)
💣Drive to survive (4th OTT @APinv)
🔥Will putt for pink slips (10th)
👹Wedge warlord
🥸Loves long journeys (26th SG App 200+)
🚗Recent destinations:
- T6 API
- 5th WMPO
- 2nd TOC
- 1st Fortinet pic.twitter.com/QBRIAl652W— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
The theme of this card so far, which will continue with Ben An, is that each of these golfers has finished 2nd when he had bet them outright. Sahith was ousted by an unconscious Chris Kirk at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and who has reverted back to mediocrity that made his menacing Maui miracle that much more frustrating. Sahith has since followed up that runner up with a 5th place finish at the WMPO, where he was the only golfer from the horrendous weather wave to appear at the top of the leaderboard. As a result of burning the candle at both ends through treacherous conditions, his waxless wick of wizardry lost its ability to continue burning bright on Sunday. A tough break.
Not sure why we typed out that first paragraph, but I guess it is to try highlight the sporadic and immense success Sahith has experienced shortly after winning the Fortinet Championship in the fall. I have often compared Theegala to my favorite golfer on earth, Cam Smith, as their driver is often drunk, while their short game operates at a perpetual level of "buzzed" that allows onlookers to marvel at their brilliance wondering how they continue to get away with the things they do. However, Sahith has rectified his driving inefficiencies of late, gaining the 14th-most strokes off the tee this year, having only lost strokes twice in his last dozen rounds. If we can keep the ball in play off the tee and get out of the way of the magic that typically ensues after that, Theegala seems like a deserving PLAYERS Champion, in my non-biased opinion.
Byeong Hun An $0.77 (90-1 FanDuel)
I took a look into the future and I saw this on Sunday the 17th of March
💰 @ByeongHunAn 90-1
This year:
🔥T2 @ Sony
🔥4th @ Sentry
🔥T8 @ API
🔥T16 @ Genesis
🔥T21 @ CognizantIt's. Time. pic.twitter.com/ck0ZAGeMDi
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 13, 2024
This card is turning into a nightmare trip down memory lane, as Benny An promptly followed up Sahith's runner up finish with a missed four footer in a playoff to finish second to Grayson Murray. Yes, Grayson is back on the PGA Tour. No, he has not done anything substantial since... An has not stopped playing good golf though, with finishes inside the top-21 in his last trio of starts, storming up the API leaderboard on Sunday to finish eighth last week.
An has typically struggled with the putter, but heading into TPC Sawgrass for the first time since converting to the broomstick, we head back to a venue where he actually had mild success with the old putter, with hopes that the broom stick can sweep up the strokes gained putting he left lying around on the smooth Florida greens over the years. He is playing the best golf of his career, with his strokes gained through the first 11 weeks of the season +0.65 more than his next best year, all the way back in 2015 on the DPWT. An's distance off the tee putts him in a similar boat to Wyndham Clark, capable of drizzling the driving irons over the fairways and attacking pins from perfect positions in the fairway. He is due a win and this week would sure be an exciting time to get his first W as a PGA professional.
Min Woo Lee $1.16 (60-1 FanDuel)
💰Min Woo Lee 60-1 @FDSportsbook
📈2nd @the_cognizant (comp course)
🐴T6 here last year
🔥Let. Him. Cook! pic.twitter.com/VmT1mSRtmh— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
The statistical profile of Min Woo Lee had him as a fade candidate at the Cognizant Classic, beating Benny An's T21 with a 2nd place finish of his own. What would you know, another outright with a recent finish on tour that was just not good enough to grab a win. However, a solid performance at the PLAYERS last year and a similarly impressive outcome at the Cognizant two weeks ago, has me wondering if Lee is becoming a short, Florida specialist. At 60-1 with two wins on the DPWT over the fall break, we are okay paying that price to find out what he cooks up this week.
Brian Harman $0.92 (75-1 FanDuel)
💰Min Woo Lee 60-1 @FDSportsbook
📈2nd @the_cognizant (comp course)
🐴T6 here last year
🔥Let. Him. Cook! pic.twitter.com/VmT1mSRtmh— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
The most bet golfer on Twitter will make his way onto our card at a price that seems underpriced relative to the skillset he has to conquer the challenges TPC Sawgrass asks. Harman has only lost strokes off the tee in four of his 23 rounds here, averaging +0.82 OTT since 2017. With that level of consistency and safety with the big dog in his hand, the Georgia Bulldog will look to capitalize on the familiarity from the fairways with iron play that gained the third most strokes on approach a week ago. If Austin Eckroat taught us anything at the Cognizant, it's that sometimes that iron play continues to surge the following week, making Harman and his Champion-Golfer-of-the-Year caliber short game a great combination that will look to improve on his T3 he had here in 2021.
Tom Hoge $0.69 (100-1 FanDuel)
💰Tom Hoge 100-1 @FDSportsbook
👑King of the Iron Throne (SG App 1st)
😎Renowned Playa (T3 last year)
📈Last 5: T12, T28, 8th, T17, T6
🔥Gained putting in 6 of last 7 starts pic.twitter.com/i4mrxAPL3O— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 11, 2024
Worthy of a "King of the Iron Throne" graphic, Tom Hoge returns to TPC Sawgrass where he broke the course record last year on route to a third-place finish. If he can continue to stripe his irons at a level even Scottie Scheffler has not managed to match in 2024, while getting the putter outperforming his average of +0.36 strokes per round, 100-1 is a very acceptable price to get our chips into the pot and hope that the only flopping is done in the 2nd round.
Matthieu Pavon $0.46 (150-1 @ FanDuel)
💰Matthieu Pavon 150-1
🔥Strokes gained total in 2024... SIXTH!!!
🔥Starts in 2024: 7th, 39th, 1st, 3rd, 28th, 52nd
💪This course suits him way better than Bay Hill
🇫🇷Paint the town rouge, blanc and bleue pic.twitter.com/GkFdASQEqi— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 12, 2024
Whether or not Pavon wins this tournament, it would be betting malpractice to not grab the golfer in this field with the sixth best strokes gained to begin the year at this price. He won at the Farmers and then finished third the week after at Pebble Beach. He has been hitting his irons exceptionally well and converting the ample birdie opportunities with a putter that has been as impressive as his iron play. With this kind of course fit, this kind of form, and this kind of price, we have done our due diligence and now it's up to one of the hottest golfers on US soil to paint TPC Sawgrass red, white and bleue!
Billy Horschel $0.35 (200-1 @ FanDuel)
💰Billy Horschel 200-1
📈T9 at Cognizant (Gained across all four areas)
🐴4th at Wyndham
🤞Buddy has found some form at a ridiculous number pic.twitter.com/doBVcYWczT— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 12, 2024
Horschel has shown us that he has a course blueprint that matches his blue-collar mentality of hard work and perseverance. If you are pulling data for the last 12 months, it won't look promising, particularly if that data omits DPWT stats. Billy got his groove back across the pond to end the year and has top-10 finishes at the Wyndham and Cognizant Classic - two short, positional tracks. He also finished T18 at the Sony to start the year, and at 200-1, the winner of the 2022 Memorial Tournament has the pedigree of a PLAYERS champion, with his game flirting with a return to the form where he no longer takes out his frustration on obnoxious golf fans.
Nick Taylor $0.32 (220-1 @ FanDuel)
💰Nick Taylor 220-1
Last three starts:
T12 @ API
WIN @ WMPOIn 2024:
8th in SG Putting
10 in SG ApproachT16 @ Players in 2019 pic.twitter.com/zjCURYuOnQ
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) March 13, 2024
The price of Nick Taylor's outright ticket at 220-1 simply did not match up to the form he has shown this year. The champ of the WMPO and RBC Canadian Open has gained the 10th-most strokes on approach and the eighth-most strokes with that putter that has buried the hopes and dreams of both Tommy Fleetwood and Charley Hoffman, sinking putt after putt to win both playoffs. The underrated part of Taylor's game is his irons, which we hope show up to the TPC Sawgrass party for his third win in less than a year.
Placings ($74)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won in the last 12 months, and the green column is the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.
Matchups ($11)
$11 Pavon over Hojgaard -110 (FanDuel)
Pavon has beat Hojgaard in every tournament they have played together, including the time Nicolai finished 2nd at the Farmers. We love the course fit and advantage of recent form in this matchup.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $127.22 (DraftKings)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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