RADIO
Golf is a fascinating sport. I bet Xander in a matchup at the Wells Fargo and he surrenders a lead to Rory, the only person he needed to beat in the field. Fast forward a week later and the only person Bryson needed to beat to cash our PGA Championship outright, was Xander... I feel like this year we have been running extremely suboptimal on the outright side of things with SEVEN runner ups to go along with our single Jake Knapp Mexico win.
You are who you are, until you are not. Xander Schauffele has been playing FAR too well to have not won a tournament in the last two years. He has been the unanimous second best player this year from a strokes-gained standpoint, yet, any time he has had a chance to win a tournament, he never. Until he won the PGA Championship, draining a 5-foot birdie putt on the last to seal the deal by one stroke. Since 2023, he still needs to win twice in order to recoup your investment in his outright market since he has been so short in that market, yet never having won anything.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
When you throw $10 out the window on outrights and $15 on hail-mary parlays that can make a winning week with one hit, we still managed to overcome our $25 "luxury fee" and churn out just about $50 in profit in what I like to call the "bread and butter" bets, where we profited $31.10 in the placement market and our major fade of Sam Burns helped us with $17.39 in profit there.
✅PGA Championship: +$18.60 profit
Outrights: -$10
🙃BrysonPlacements: $31.10
✅Bryson T5/T10 🪜
✅Xander T10
✅Collin T10
✅Min Woo T30
💀Sahith T5...Matchups: +$17.39
✅Young over BurnsFarewell Fivers (R1, R2, R3): -$15
Live bets with @btngolf: +$12.50
✅Spieth R1 Pars… https://t.co/0mlnIWLSwB pic.twitter.com/doNP5y57tf— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) May 20, 2024
2024 Summary
Here is the summary of the pre-tournament bets that we have made in the Outright, Placement, and Matchups.
- Outrights: -$137.48
- Matchups: -$12.39
- Top 5s: $55.69
- Top 6s: -$1.25
- Top 10s: $101.48
- Top 20s: $11.13
- Top 30s: $22.30
- Top 40s: -$8.90
- Total: $30.57
Outrights ($10)
Collin Morikawa $0.93 +7500
In my Stat Buffet article you can see the key proximity buckets that we expect here, and we should expect a decent chunk of shots from inside 200 yards (77%). This is a scenario where we have addition by subtraction, as the less shots that take place outside of 200, the better for Collin Morikawa. Over the last 12 months, Collin Ranks 13th in strokes gained from 100-150, 11th in SG from 150-200 yards, while his 200+ numbers rank 72nd in this field. His obvious weakness will be significantly overlooked this week, while what remains an apparent ball striking strength between 100-200 yards will be magnified.
Other statistically relevant metrics that make Collin an appealing bet is his ability to drive his golf ball through a key hole, if that were asked of PGA Professionals, ranking third in accuracy off the tee and 8th in SG OTT on courses shorter than 7,200. At this venue, hitting the fairway is imperative, as the new, firmer greens are not going to be receptive of spinless balls that come out the new Bermuda rough that typically is a much more difficult blade of grass to generate spin out of. If you took a quick peak at Morikawa's other side of the long-iron teeter totter, his around the green game has become sensational, ranking 4th ARG in 2024, and despite only ranking 61st in putting this year, his last sixteen rounds on the greens are averaging +0.6 strokes per round.
Collin Morikawa returning back to his swing coach, Rick Sessinghaus, who he left prior to the 2023 Ryder Cup, is arguably the biggest reason we are going to commit so much of our chips to one golfer. if you take a peek at Collins 2023 SG APP in the graphic above, there is a pink 3, but in 2024, he ranks 25th. If the Sessinghaus can become a Sessinghome, Collin Morkiwa returning as an elite iron player, while having added another 1.5 infinity stones with his ARG (full stone) and Putting (0.5 a stone), is a scary proposition.
Sepp Straka $1.69 (+4500)
Sepp Straka let us down at the PGA Championship, but the formula here with Sepp is simple - his iron play is ELITE right now (2nd over L20 rounds) while his putter (38th) has gained more strokes than 9 of the top 10 approach players over that span. Straka ranks 2nd in total strokes over that stint and has finishes of T8, T11, T5, T16, MC, T16 prior to his missed cut last week. A T29 here last year while losing on approach is enough to believe that he stands a good chance of bettering that finish in his current form. We have had some luck with Straka in the past, hitting him as an outright at the John Deere Classic, so hopefully those vibes can take us to the promised land again.
Billy Horschel $1.27 (+6000)
Buddy! You playing some good golf right now! Billy Horschel won the Corales Puntacana alternate event to add to his four top-12 finishes since the Cognizant. His T8 at the PGA Championship last week is what has us most excited as he gained a stroke per round with his irons, while going nuts with his putter. The putter likely cools down a little, but as a good putter over the course of his career, we can anticipate it to still remain a damage dealer. Heading from a 7,600-yard Valhalla to a restored 7,200 yard venue that will emphasize scrambling and driving accuracy, is another reason why like Big Bad Billy this week!
Keegan Bradley +7000 ($1.09)
If I told you that the golfer who gained the most strokes off the tee at Valhalla is priced at +7000, you simply have to click that button especially when Keegan Bradley has been hitting his irons as well as he has. If the week unfolds in a low scoring fashion, Bradley's lack of putting consistency could get rescued with an elite week of ball striking and par making. However, we will be putting on Bentgrass greens (2nd L36), which is easily his best putting surface, with his putter showing some life since getting into the Bent stretch since Augusta. We are leaning heavily into the ball striking and hoping that at this price, we get some putt luck!
Lee Hodges +12500 ($0.61)
Lee Hodges has a T12 and T24 in his last two starts. In his PGA Championship he gained just shy of 10 strokes on approach. That is likely not going to continue at that level, but after having one of his best weeks on approach behind the week he won the 3M last July. Hodges is also really accurate off the tee and has a T29 and T35 in his two showings here so far!
Placings ($85)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10 (see Wyndham T10%/T5%). Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
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Matchups
NO MATCHUPS THIS WEEK.
LAST WEEK: Cameron Young over Sam Burns -115 (FanDuel)
The major track record speaks for itself. The closer Cameron Young climbs to the top of the leaderboard, the less likely Sam Burns has of catching him in a major. Burns has only one major top-20 in his career (T20) but five PGA Tour wins. He has struggled mightily in majors, while Cam Young has thrived. That top-10 rate is rather ridiculous, as Young looks to earn his sixth career major top-10.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $75.96 +1519 (FanDuel)
We are sick of going 3 for 4 ... so Chad Ramey hail mary 3-legger!
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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