MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/26/2026)

March 26, 2026

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/26/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Tyler O'Neill, Spencer Torkelson, and Will Smith.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Opening Day! I'm so glad to be back writing MLB content again. Last year was extremely fun, and I'm excited to have another fun season. We had multiple big days last season filled with big wins! Let's hope we can crush the season and start with an Opening Day winner! The first week of the season is always the toughest, as a lot of pitchers and hitters change their approaches, and we have only last year's data and spring training data to use. As the season gets going, it will be easier to hone in on our top targets, so play light to start the year!

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate, as well as a longshot bet. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, March 26, 2026. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/26/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, March 26:

• Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Tyler O'Neill, Baltimore Orioles
• Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
• Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
• Cole Young, Seattle Mariners

Will Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)

Starting with a Dodger feels too easy, but honestly, they are going against Zac Gallen, who was giving up home runs like candy last year. He gave up 31 home runs last season, which leads all pitchers on the slate today. 19 of those home runs were hit by RHH, which led me to decide between Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez.

Gallen had a 1.71 HR/9 last season to go along with a .430 SLG, 43% HardHit%, and a 9.7% Barrel%. The Dodgers have quite a few LHH to go against Gallen, but it's been the righties to get the job done more often. The thing I love about Smith in this spot is his pitch mix, which lines up nicely against Gallen.

As I've shown below, it's a whole lot of green for those pitches. Outside of the Knuckle Curve, but Smith hasn't seen much of it to get an accurate reading. He has been crushing the four-seamer and the slider, resulting in 11 of his 15 (including postseason) home runs against RHP.

Smith has been significantly better against RHP, too; he hits them for a .513 SLG, .204 ISO, and a .397 wOBA. It should be nice and warm in L.A., with temps projected to be in the high 70s to low 80s.

Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+308 DraftKings)

I think I would be doing everyone a disservice by not bringing up Tyler O'Neill. "Mr. Opening Day" has been known for his unbelievable power on the first day of the season. He has six straight seasons of an Opening Day home run, which is just absurd.

O'Neill by no means has been known for being a power hitter; he only had nine home runs in 76 games last season. But something seems to work for this kid on Opening Day, and he is actually getting a relatively good matchup against Joe Ryan, whom he does have a home run against, although it was nearly three years ago.

Ryan is third on this slate in home runs given up last season, with 26. He has been quite a bit worse against lefties, so keep Gunnar Henderson in mind as well if you don't feel like going with the trendy O'Neill pick.

Against RHH, Ryan is giving up a 1.05 HR/9 with a .331 SLG, an overall HardHit% of 51.4%, and a Barrel% of 13.5%.

O'Neill has been crushing it in spring training so far this season, with a 1.145 OPS in 21 ABs. He has only played in nine spring training games this season, as he played in the WBC for Canada as well. I would not be surprised to see O'Neill make it seven consecutive years in a row.

Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+630 FanDuel)

I normally don't love going against Jacob Misiorowski, but I think this is an interesting spot for the White Sox. Munetaka Murakami is coming over from Japan, where he has outright dominated in the NPB. For the last seven years, he has been crushing the ball in Japan.

Now, he gets a chance to come over and hopefully be a spark plug in this White Sox offense that so desperately needs it.

Misiorowski has been great in his limited time in the big leagues, but he has struggled against LHH. He has given up six of his eight home runs to lefties, resulting in a 1.65 HR/9 with a .410 SLG. Overall, hitters have a 44.8% HardHit% and a 10.3% Barrel% against him.

Murakami hit the ball well in spring training with a .276 AVG and .448 SLG. Most of his preseason at-bats came in the WBC, as he played for Japan and hit a home run in those games.

A home run in his first career game would make for one hell of a storyline for the rookie out of Japan. At +610, I think we are getting solid value on the rookie to crush one off Misiorowski or a Milwaukee reliever.

Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+377 DraftKings)

Spencer Torkelson had an excellent season that resulted in 31 home runs, 17 of which came against RHP. He has been great at fastball hunting, which has allowed him a .456 SLG and .200 ISO against the specific pitch. Nick Pivetta is throwing his fastball 41% of the time, and it got hit hard last season, resulting in 12 of his 17 homers coming off the four-seamer.

I'm expecting another solid season from Tork, and it all could start here against Pivetta. Pivetta has been significantly worse against righties, giving up a 1.48 HR/9 with a .366 SLG. He also is sporting a 10.9% Barrel%, which is the second highest on the slate, and a 45% HardHit%.

As Pivetta ages, I expect to see some regression. With that, the four-seamer will already be in the low 90s. It will only become easier for guys to hit it. Torkelson has hit the ball hard against Pivetta in his last four ABs; he has four straight hard-hit balls resulting in exit velos of 96 mph or higher.

Torkelson didn't have the greatest spring training, but he did have two home runs, and I expect him to get off to a good start to this season.

Longshot: Cole Young OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+860 DraftKings)

Cole Young is not known for his power hitting, but he had an elite spring training, hitting six home runs with a .667 SLG. It's a long shot for a reason, though. Young only hit four home runs in the entire season last year, but that didn't stop him from crushing the longest home run of the year by a Mariner at 456 feet. He had one in spring training that went 478 feet!

Cole Young AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/bip0iW3Sm2

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) March 21, 2026

If he can get a solid pitch from Tanner Bibee, who gave up 27 home runs last year, which is the second most of any pitcher on the slate, Young can thrive. Bibee last season had a 8% Barrel% and a 36.6% HardHit%. The HardHit% is a bit lower than I like, but there is still potential in this spot.

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