Booms and Busts for Week 5 Lineups

October 10, 2021

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 5 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

The world of fantasy football can be a vicious cycle throughout the long season with mind-numbing performances from players that can leave managers second-guessing roster decisions. That was yet again the case in Week 4 as the trend of under-the-radar players outperforming their rankings continued. Players like Taylor Heinicke, Kenneth Gainwell, and Van Jefferson took advantageous matchups and provided stellar production worthy of being in starting lineups. The downside to this was that very few managers had them in those lineups to take advantage of the value they provided.

It's something that we see every week as the mindset of starting the more well-known player takes hold. This strategy has its faults and can lend itself to disappointment more than achieving success. You'll once again see these conflicting strategies face-off in Week 5 as there are several matchups to attack with unheralded players in good spots. While on the other side of the coin, we see several top-tier players facing difficult matchups that could prove to be landmines in your starting lineups. The further we get into the fantasy season, the more analytical data compiles together and gives us a more broad scope in which to make lineup decisions.

That analytical data is what drives this article each week as I dive into the numbers and deflect all of the white noise you may hear. Instead of setting and forgetting with your studs locked in each week, I look to provide you with some options that should sneak into your lineups. Those players could prove to become the difference between winning and losing your ever-important fantasy matchups in Week 5.

Week 5 Woos - The Good

Joe Burrow vs. Green Bay Packers

After a rough couple of weeks to open the season, Burrow is starting to gain some confidence in his return from injury this season. He's had multiple touchdowns in each game and with his 300-yard performance last week, he finished with his first QB1 week. Although he has not been very active to begin the year (29th in attempts and 20th in yards), he has been productive with his limited work (ranks fifth with nine touchdowns). There are so many narratives at play here that could lead to a big game for Burrow. Joe Mixon is trending towards not playing, putting more work on Burrow and a passing game that will be getting back Tee Higgins. The Packers defense (allowing 20.3 FPPG to quarterbacks) will be without Jaire Alexander, opening up mismatches in the secondary. And of course, facing Aaron Rodgers could also mean this game becomes a shootout, giving Burrow more opportunities to score. He is a fringe QB1 this week and is worthy of a start in this game.

Damien Harris @ Houston Texans

Harris has become somewhat of a forgotten man coming off the heels of two stinkers against some of the top defenses in the league. With only 10 carries combined over the last two weeks, his advanced analytics have taken a beating. He's fallen outside the top 20 across all major categories and will be looking to rebound. Not to mention his FPPG (8.2) has dropped drastically over the last two games as he ranks 45th at the position. Look for a return to normalcy in Week 5 as he will be facing a Texans defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed to the position (21.4 FPPG). You should view Harris as a solid option at RB2 this week.

Laviska Shenault Jr. vs Tennessee Titans

The injury to D.J. Chark opens the door for more opportunities in the Jaguars' passing attack. Shenault will be looking to assume the top dog role after his disappointing start to the season. Things are already off to a good start as he produced his best game to date last week (six receptions for 99 yards) once Chark exited. Even though he ranks fourth at the position in slot snaps (138), look for the Jaguars to move him around to maximize his skill set. Things are shaping up for a big game this week as he will be facing a Titans secondary that is currently the worst in the league in points allowed to the position (36.1 FPPG). I'm viewing Shenault as a solid Flex play in Week 5, but seeing WR2 production should not be unexpected in this matchup.

Mike Gesicki @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Left for dead just a couple of weeks ago, Gesicki has seen a resurgence with Jacoby Brissett under center for the Dolphins. He's provided back-to-back TE1 scoring weeks as he's been the focal point of the Dolphins' passing attack. He's currently ranking inside the top 10 in most statistical categories, but the touchdowns have yet to truly hit as he has just one on the season. But with that score coming just last week, Gesicki could continue to ride the hot streak. He will be facing a Buccaneers defense that is among the worst in the league in points allowed to the position (10.5 FPPG). With the Dolphins trailing in this game, they will be attacking the weakness of the defense, which could be very productive for Gesicki. Another finish as a TE1 should be on tap in Week 5.

Week 5 Boos - The Bad

Justin Fields @ Las Vegas Raiders

Many in the world of fantasy football are looking forward to the upside that Fields provides to a very boring Bears offense. There are pieces to work with in this offense, but the utilization has yet to click. The struggles of the play-calling show in advanced analytics as he ranks near the bottom in both yards per attempt (6.7) and fantasy points per drop back (0.37). This week could prove to be yet another tough game as he will be facing a Raiders defense that ranks 18th in points allowed to the position (18.6 FPPG). Fields' time as a weekly starter in fantasy is coming, but it will not begin this week.

Miles Sanders @ Carolina Panthers

Another struggling player that is driving fantasy managers bonkers is Miles Sanders due to his disappointing usage and performance. After 28 carries in the first two games of the season, he has seen just nine over the last two games. His six receptions have kept him afloat, but nowhere near the production that many were expecting. He ranks 37th in fantasy points per game (10.1) and with the increasing usage of Kenneth Gainwell, a rebound for Sanders is looking less likely by the game. To make matters worse, he will be facing one of the league's toughest defenses in points allowed to the position in the Panthers (10.5). Sanders finds himself squarely in the doghouse with fantasy managers and he should be a player that is on your bench in Week 5 unless you lack any better options.

Odell Beckham Jr. @ Los Angeles Chargers

Since his return to the lineup, Beckham has been consistently involved in the passing game (16 targets) as the Browns lack options. But the downside is that the production has yet to take hold as Baker Mayfield has struggled with consistency. In his two games back, he already ranks inside the top 10 in deep targets (7), but the completions just arent there. The struggles for Beckham will likely continue this week as he faces a Chargers secondary that is one of the best in the league in points allowed to the position (16.4 FPPG). With the receiver position stacked with a depth of options to go to, finding one to replace Beckham in your starting lineup should be easy to do in Week 5.

Robert Tonyan @ Cincinnati Bengals

Plenty of people were expecting some regression from Tonyan in 2021 coming off an amazingly efficient 2020 season. But we weren't expecting to see him disappear entirely. He has just eight total catches through the team's first four games with only one TE1 finish (Week2). His 5.4 FPPG lands him at TE30 on the season and he has likely found himself either on benches or cut entirely. Another tough performance is to be expected in Week 5 as he faces a Bengals defense that has been one of the toughest this year in points allowed to the position (4.3 FPPG).

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