2021 PGA DFS Preview: Sanderson Farms Championship

Hi RotoBallers! I'm Andy Lack and I'm very excited to be with you for the PGA Tour Swing Season! In our ongoing attempt to expand and improve our PGA coverage, I will be dropping a 'Tournament Preview' every Monday morning.

I hope this preview will give you a head start on your Sanderson Farms Championship research and I'd also like to encourage you to check out my Inside Golf Podcast to hear more of my thoughts on the Country Club of Jackson and this week's tournament. If you aren't already utilizing RotoBaller's amazing weekly PGA content, fix that right now by joining us this week and throughout the rest of the PGA Tour season.

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RotoBaller Weekly PGA Article Schedule

Monday

You can find out all you need to know about this week's layout with Josh Bennett's Course Breakdown (Premium) and learn which golfers have thrived at this course in the past with Joe Nicely's Horse For The Course.

Tuesday

We kick your DFS research into high gear with articles from Spencer Aguiar! Spencer will highlight his favorite DraftKings Plays of the week - an article that also includes his popular PGA DFS Rankings Wizard Model - and offer great tips with his Head-To-Head Betting Preview, while Joe Nicely drops some salary savers in his DraftKings Value Plays (Premium) article. We also have you FanDuel fans covered with free PGA DFS picks for every tournament.

Wednesday

Things start getting intense on Wednesday and we've got you covered! You can check out RotoBaller Staff One And Done selections and get inside the mind of our team with our PGA DFS Expert Roundtable (Premium). We also have two of the most popular articles in the PGA DFS industry with Spencer Aguiar's Vegas Report (Premium) and Joe Nicely's DraftKings Core Four (Premium). You can also check out Josh Bennett's DFS Cheat Sheet (Premium) for a quick cram session!

Tournament Overview

2021 Sanderson Farms Championship

Recent Winners

• 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
• 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
• 2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
• 2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
• 2016: Cody Gribble (-20)

Event Details

• Purse: $6,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500 (Winner)
• Field: 156 Players

After a one week break for the Ryder Cup, the fall swing is back in gear, and players will be traveling to Jackson, Mississippi, this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Albeit under different title sponsors, this tournament has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1968, although it has only been played at the current host course, the Country Club of Jackson, since 2015. In the past, this event was generally played opposite a major or limited field tournament. It moved to late October as part of the fall swing during the 2014-2015 PGA Tour season, still playing opposite the WGC - HSBC Championship in China. For the 2019-2020 season, the tournament was finally upgraded to a standalone event in September. The changed status means that the winner will receive the full benefits of a regular PGA Tour event, with 500 FedEx Cup points and an invitation to the Masters.

While many of the world's best players will be opting to rest up after the Ryder Cup, Sergio Garica is making the trek from Wisconsin to defend last year's title. Other notables include Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, and Corey Conners. The field is about what we've come to expect for fall series events. While there may be lack of elite talent at the top, there is a still an abundance of capable players in the middle to lower tiers of this field. As I always say with weaker field events, I believe these are the easiest weeks for fantasy managers to capitalize on, especially if they are willing to do the legwork on some of the lesser known players that might not be household names to the general public. Let's get into my course, breakdown, and key statistics, and three players that are worthy of further attention.

Course Breakdown

Country Club of Jackson - Jackson, MS

The Country Club of Jackson is a stock par 72, measuring 7,461 yards. It opened all the way back in 1914, but received a major facelift in 2008 under John Fought, who lengthened and attempted to create a "Donald Ross" vibe, which is evident in it's parkland style routing and undulating green complexes which average 6,200 square feet. Water comes into play on five holes, and the fairways and rough are all Bermuda-grass. The greens are a specific blend of Champion Bermuda-grass, the very same surface that we see at Quail Hollow, TPC Southwind, and Sedgefield Country Club.

Despite lengthening the course to over 7,400 yards, PGA Tour pros will still have their way with the Country Club of Jackson. 7,461 yards is pretty standard these days in terms of length, and much of it actually comes on the set of par fives. Only three par fours measure over 450 yards, and six measure between 400-450 yards. Players will still have their fare share of wedges at the C.C. of Jackson, as 36% of approach shots come from between 100-150 yards. There aren't too many tricks to this course either. It sits on a relatively flat piece of property and most of the holes are fairly straight. While the fairways measure only 29 yards wide on average, the rough is only two inches, so players are fully comfortable bombing away. Similar to Silverado, driving accuracy is extremely low here (54%), but that does not mean that C.C. of Jackson is a course where accuracy off the tee is of upmost importance. After his 2018 victory, Cameron Champ stated, "Obviously driver is the key out here. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it's a very score-able course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there." Accuracy mavens such as Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Corey Conners, and Ryan Armour can certainly still succeed here, but a bomb and gauge approach, as we saw with Cameron Champ in 2018, and to a lesser extent, Sergio Garcia last year, can definitely work here.

The largest challenge that the C.C. of Jackson may present is its fast Bermuda-grass greens. The Donald Ross inspiration can certainly be felt here. Not to say that this tournament is a complete putting contest, but with little penalty for missing the fairway, and a greens in regulation percentage well above Tour average, a hot flat-stick is certainly required. Last year, each of the top-10 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting, with Peter Malnati and J.T. Poston, who finished second and third, gaining a combined a 17.7 strokes putting. Both players, who are not known for their ball-striking chops, lost strokes off the tee, giving more credence to my suspicion that missing the fairway here is not a death sentence. It's also worth noting that on a course that emphasizes putting, there is a far wider range of players that have the ability to compete here. Since the tournament moved to the C.C. of Jackson, no player with a pre-tournament price of under 66/1 has claimed victory. Ryan Armour and Cody Gribble won as 125/1 long-shots in 2016 and 2017. Peter Malnati won at 250/1 in 2015, and Nick Taylor won at 400/1 in 2014. It's no coincidence that since moving venues, winners have averaged a rank of 27th in driving distance, 36th in driving accuracy, 27th in proximity to the hole, yet fourth in putting average.

In conclusion, there is no set way to succeed at the C.C. of Jackson. We've seen players bomb and gauge their way to success, we've seen fairway finders win, we've seen short and inaccurate players off the tee succeed due to elite iron play, and we've also seen the player that simply rolls in the most 20-footers claim victory as well. For that reason, I am not entirely caught up in finding elite specialists at a specific skill-set. I'm more-so looking for players that can make a ton of birdies, are in good form, and have experienced success on Bermuda-grass greens. Given the wide range of skill-sets in play here, I would definitely favor recent form this week over course fit. Let's dig into the metrics!

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Key Statistics 

Outside of the obvious four major statistical categories (strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained putting), here are a few ancillary statistics that should prove pivotal, as well as the top-5 players in the field in these metrics over their last 24 rounds.

1. Birdies or Better Gained  
   1. Aaron Wise
   2. Cameron Davis
   3. Sam Ryder
   4. Patton Kizzire
   5. Sergio Garcia
2. Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass Greens
   1. Chesson Hadley
   2. Denny McCarthy
   3. Zach Johnson
   4. Brendon Todd
   5. J.T. Poston
3. Weighted Proximity 100-150 yards 
   1. Matthew NeSmith
   2. Russell Knox
   3. Russell Henley
   4. Zach Johnson
   5. Patton Kizzire
4. Strokes Gained: Par Fives
   1. Lucas Herbert
   2. Kevin Tway
   3. Taylor Pendrith
   4. Michael Gligic
   5. Cameron Tringale
5. Average Strokes Gained Per Round: Easy Scoring Conditions 
   1. K.H. Lee
   2. Sungjae Im
   3. Seamus Power
   4. Corey Conners
   5. Chris Kirk

While those five statistics are a great place to start, I am also looking at driving distance, proximity from 200 yards plus, and greens in regulation gained.

Players To Target

High-Price Tier

Corey Conners 

Although he is by no means a bomber off the tee, Corey Conners' game fits the C.C. of Jackson quite nicely. Conners falls directly into the category of super-accurate drivers and elite short iron players that have also experienced a great deal of success on this course. The Canadian has a runner-up finish here in 2018, and he also finished 17th here last year. Conners had an excellent 2020-2021 season, and I see no reason to believe that he cannot carry the momentum into the Fall swing.

Conners is coming off a performance at the TOUR Championship where he gained 2.6 strokes off the tee and 1.5 strokes on approach. The only reason why he was not a bigger factor at East Lake is because he lost six strokes around the green. I do not expect Conners to have to rely on his short game at C.C. of Jackson nearly as much as he did at East Lake. While his putting is always a concern, it is worth noting that Bermuda is far and away Conners' best surface. When he was putting well earlier in the season, it came during the Florida swing on Bermuda-grass greens. During that stretch, Conners went on a run where he gained over two strokes putting in four consecutive starts. Pair trending ball-striking with a return to Conners' preferred putting surface and I fully believe that the former Valero Texas Open Champion will be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Mid-Price Tier

Charley Hoffman 

It finally feels time for Charley Hoffman. The four-time PGA Tour winner has been percolating all season and become one of the more trustable options this year for fantasy managers. The shine might be a little off Hoffman after a slow finish to the season, but I was incredibly encouraged by how his ball-striking has been trending. Hoffman gained 1.2 strokes off the tee and 1.8 strokes on approach en route to a 22nd-place finish in his last start at the Fortinet Championship.

Now he travels to a course that he continues to improve on. In three appearances at the C.C. of Jackson, Hoffman has finished 35th, 23rd, and most recently, sixth. His success at this venue is far from a surprise, as over his last 36 rounds, the UNLV product ranks third in strokes gained approach, fifth in birdies or better gained, seventh in proximity from 100-125 yards, and 21st in driving distance. Hoffman is an excellent wedge player, he makes a ton of birdies, and he is plenty long off the tee. He has been due for awhile now, and the C.C. of Jackson feels like the perfect spot for the San Diego native to break through with his fifth career PGA Tour win.

Value-Price Tier

Joseph Bramlett 

I love this spot for Joseph Bramlett. The University of Stanford product is one of the longest hitters on Tour, and we've seen dominant players off the tee such as Cameron Champ and Sergio Garcia be able to pick the C.C. of Jackson apart with their driver. Along with being the number one player in this field in driving distance over his last 36 rounds, Bramlett also ranks sixth in proximity from 200 yards plus, 11th in strokes gained off the tee, 20th in strokes gained approach, and 24th in greens in regulation. I fully expect Bramlett to continue his solid ball-striking at a course that should suit his eye nicely. While he has only played the C.C. of Jackson twice, which resulted in a nondescript missed cut and 44th-place finish, Bramlett is a much better player now than he was on then.

The California native is coming off his first professional win at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in September, which was evidently a nice confidence booster and propelled him to one of the best ball-striking weeks of his career at the Fortinet Championship. Bramlett gained 3.5 strokes off the tee and 4.9 strokes on approach that week. Unfortunately, he was only able to muster a 42nd-place finish because he lost 5.2 strokes putting. The flat-stick is always a concern with Bramlett, but the ball-striking has been so impressive that he will likely still justify his price with mediocre to average putting. The ball-striking performance at the Fortinet Championship was far from a flash in the pan. Bramlett has had three other starts this season where he gained over three strokes off the tee, and five other starts this season where he's gained over three strokes on approach. Bramlett has been awesome on easy, bomb and gauge courses, and he is merely a decent putting week away from breaking through.

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