RADIO
In Seattle Seahawks history, some of the most successful teams and eras have been defined by a strong running game.
In the franchise’s first decade of becoming a playoff contender in the 1980s, the offense was labeled as “Ground Chuck” under head coach Chuck Knox. The 2005 NFC Champion Seahawks were heavily based around MVP winner Shaun Alexander. Marshawn Lynch was a signature player on the two Super Bowl teams of the past decade.
So after a stunningly decisive loss to the Rams in the NFC Wild Card Game, Pete Carroll emphasized he wanted to run the ball more.
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No More Cooking for Russ?
There was a widespread initial reaction from fans, analysts and fantasy types about how we might see a return to previous Seahawk models, some recent ones that frustrated onlookers and had previously spawned the “Let Russ Cook” movement.
FREE Russell Wilson! https://t.co/5WDnI3RSiB
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 12, 2021
My seasoned co-host on RotoBaller Radio on Saturday mornings on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio engaged in a good debate with me on this line of thinking recently. I understood his position that he wanted the Seahawks to get back to the type of offense that made Russell Wilson into the best fantasy version of himself ever in the first half of the 2020 season.
But as has been well documented, NFL defenses adjusted to the increased emphasis on the passing game, and the Seahawks never properly adjusted back. Those in-game and overall failures to retool on the fly led to the end of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure as offensive coordinator. Opponents simply weren’t going to allow what fantasy players wanted to see anymore.
Searching for Answers
Many theories made the rounds on the airwaves and social media about what went wrong. They included going to a run-heavy approach too much in the second half, which simply was not true. The Seahawks were 18th in rushing attempts during the second half of the season. Chris Carson had 73 carries in his final six games, including the playoffs. That turned out to be a big part of the problem.
The running game was not a consistent threat to defenses, and the offense became more predictable. This led to scenes like this one in the NFC Wild Card loss to the Rams and further criticism of the offensive line.
The pocket for Russell Wilson a week ago Vs the pocket for Aaron Rodgers today....GB, New Orleans & TB’s OL’s are at such a different level than SEA’s. And GB down their Pro Bowl LT & still mauling the Rams run and pass pic.twitter.com/CDdWgcqrTi
— Brock Huard (@BrockHuard) January 16, 2021
Wilson’s front wall has long been the target of external ire throughout his nine seasons in the NFL. He has been sacked 394 times in his career, the most in the league since 2012. But as noted by The Athletic, Seattle’s line was actually ninth in pass block win rate in 2020. According to Next Gen Stats, Wilson’s Average Time to Throw was 2.97 seconds, which was fifth-lowest in the league.
Wilson has made a career of coming through with dazzling plays, often at critical times. But the dangerous flip side of his tendency to extend plays and deliver in unique fashion can also lead to taking several sacks. Wilson has been a very successful and often exciting QB, but his style of play puts extra pressure on his blockers while possibilities develop downfield. It’s the price the Seahawks have been willing to pay, but to make the passing game succeed more frequently, the team needs better offensive balance.
The Wilson we have been accustomed to seeing thrives as a deep thrower because of his outstanding skills as a play-action passer. Earlier in the season, defenses respected the threat of the running game, a longtime Carroll staple. Once they realized that the “Let Russ Cook” movement was the Seahawks new style of play, they adjusted to looks to better defended the deep pass. With opponents taking away the deep ball and Seattle not adjusting properly, the Seahawks offense became much easier to defend.
Wilson was removed from fantasy starting lineups down the stretch, Tyler Lockett was no longer a must-start player, and DK Metcalf had no 90-yard outings and one TD in his last five regular-season games. Those fantasy players who were hoping to ride top Seahawks to a Fantasy Super Bowl run were let down. In the aftermath, Metcalf himself admitted the offense became too predictable.
What happened to Seahawks offense, explained (quickly) by DK Metcalf pic.twitter.com/dQBwmSPFPr
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) January 25, 2021
Achieving More Balance
If you are hoping for the Seattle offense of the first half of 2020 to return for fantasy purposes, don’t hold your breath. After the season ended, though, Carroll cautioned that he was not about to completely abandon attempting to revive some of the explosiveness that was showcased earlier in the year.
“Let me make sure I don’t overdo this with the running more thing,” Carroll said. “We need to run more with focus and direction and count on it a little bit differently than we did. It ain’t gonna be 50 runs a game. We’re not doing that. I don’t want to do that.”
In his postseason presser, Wilson emphasized that he wanted to continue to guide an up-tempo offense. It was apparent that while the Seahawks goal was to re-establish a more consistent ground game, it was in a quest to achieve more offensive balance, rather than to make the running game the major, primary focus. A more sturdy running game will allow Wilson to be more effective on play-action strikes and keep defenses guessing more.
The Seattle offense was exposed by the Rams for not taking what the defense gave them, not having a respectable high percentage version of the passing game as well as not threatening the defense enough with the ground attack. The Seahawks also were not overly prolific with yardage after the catch numbers in 2020, as Metcalf ranked 29th and Lockett 42nd.
So Seattle identified what the team believes is an ideal offensive coordinator to fix those issues, and by extension, to raise the fantasy outlooks of the top players on the offense again. Shane Waldron, the former Rams passing game coordinator, is expected to re-brand the offense with a style of play that features a greater emphasis on quick-strike passes and working more effectively off play action while still keeping the element of downfield tossing. During Waldron’s tenure with the Rams, the team finished both top-10 in rushing and passing in three of the past four seasons.
Russell Wilson has been sacked the 3rd-most, 6th-most & 5th-most times in NFL last 3 years with Brian Schottenheimer as OC.
Rams have taken the 6th-fewest, fewest & 8th-fewest sacks the last 3 years with Shane Waldron as LA's quick-pass-game coordinator https://t.co/cYwDDSJNfM
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) January 27, 2021
The Fantasy Future in Seattle
While trying to turn Wilson into a shorter Peyton Manning may no longer be a realistic possibility, we can now put positive fantasy and real-life spins on the Seattle offense as we enter the offseason. It is good to have clarity on the offensive direction as we start to make our evaluations in dynasty, keeper and early Best Ball drafts while also peering ahead in 2021 seasonal leagues.
While Wilson may not compete with Patrick Mahomes at the top of the fantasy scoring ladder under Waldron, he should maintain his longtime presence as a steady top-tier fantasy QB. There is certainly upside for a top-three finish in a more balanced and efficient attack under Waldron that could make Wilson a very dangerous all-around passer.
Waldron is expected to incorporate fly sweeps and routes that promote yardage after the catch, which is very interesting for Metcalf. While he has already emerged as a top-five fantasy WR, if he progresses more as a pass-catcher on shorter patterns, his promise can only increase. We may have not seen the best of Metcalf yet, and if he becomes more well-rounded in the new-look offense, the possibilities seem amazing.
Lockett can also re-establish himself as a prime Fantasy starter in such an offensive format. If Wilson is taking more of what defenses give him frequently, that will mean a lot of volume for Metcalf and Lockett.
Of course, don’t fear that the downfield passing game will go away. That won' happen with Metcalf in the mix, as noted by Dave Grosby of ESPN Seattle.
In the offseason, the Seahawks will have to decide on their immediate future at RB, as Carson may not be back, and possibly add another pass-catcher to fit the Waldron style of play. In the meantime, dynasty owners should maintain confidence in Wilson, while possibly even expecting more from Metcalf. You may not want to deal him away in a keeper or dynasty format, and he is a superb early Best Ball target. If you can acquire Lockett from someone who is concerned about him, go for it.
You will see a revised version of the Seattle offense in 2021. It should still be very fantasy-friendly, and the passing game will still be a very good resource, even if it isn’t quite at the very top of the NFL offensive rankings.
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