Anthony Edwards - Fantasy Basketball Rookie Profile

December 16, 2020

Andrew breaks down rookie guard Anthony Edwards and his fantasy basketball value for the 2020-21 NBA season. The 1st overall pick in the NBA Draft is analyzed for fantasy upside.

The Minnesota Timberwolves selected shooting guard Anthony Edwards first overall in this year’s NBA Draft. Edwards was one of a few prospects who seemed like a logical choice at first overall this year, but there’s no question that he was the best fit with the Timberwolves amongst the top options.

The Timberwolves’ primary nucleus going into the draft was the combination of point guard D’Angelo Russell and center Karl-Anthony Towns. The other two players on the radar for the first overall pick were point guard LaMelo Ball and center James Wiseman, two players who could have been problematic fits with the Russell/Towns duo.

Edwards is a multi-talented shooting guard who probably has the most overall potential of any player in this year’s draft class. Whether or not he can reach that potential is very much up in the air.

Anthony Edwards' Strengths

Edwards is a 6’5” guard with a 6’9” wingspan. He has an NBA-ready frame, despite just turning 19 years old in August.

Edwards played just one year of college basketball at Georgia before declaring for the NBA. During his one season, he averaged 19.1 points per game while hitting 2.3 threes per contest. The clear highlight of his season came against Michigan State when he dropped a total of 37 points, including 33 in the second half:

Edwards can score the rock in a variety of ways. He has a smooth-looking jump shot with a refined form that shouldn’t need any major tweaking in the pros. He’s a good creator, able to beat defenders off the dribble and explode for a strong finish at the rim. When he doesn’t get all the way to the rim, he’s also able to beat defenses with his step-back jump shot.

The rookie also has a lot of upside as an off-ball offensive asset. Because of his great leaping ability, he’s a fantastic alley-oop target and he’s shown a knack for his timing on off-ball cuts, making his runs to the rim at optimal times to beat defenses.

Edwards might not have the on-ball defensive attributes necessary to lock down the league’s top point guards, but there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be more than capable against secondary guards. He also has a lot of potential as an off-ball defender and has already shown some shot-blocking potential this preseason:

Weaknesses

It’s hard to find a glaring weakness for Edwards when just looking at his pure, raw skills alone. The weaknesses for Edwards come in different forms, and unfortunately, they could be the type of weaknesses that greatly prevent him from reaching his considerable upside mark.

Edwards showed a lot of inconsistency during his lone college basketball season at Georgia. In his final three games at Georgia, he shot a combined 11-for-35 (31.4%) from the field. In one of those games, against LSU, he made just 1-of-12 shots from three-point range.

Edwards’ shot selection as a whole in 2019-20 was rather questionable. He shot just 40.2% from the field and 29.4% from three-point range. Despite the low three-point percentage, he still took 7.7 three-point attempts per game.

While he was surely a bit rusty going into the game, Edwards’ first shot in the Timberwolves’ first preseason game can at least give a little hint of his inconsistent shooting and questionable shot selection:

Edwards’ pre-draft interview, in which he stated that he “can’t watch basketball” and that he was “still not really into it” was certainly a bit overblown through the social media-verse. Chalk it up to some bad PR work from Edwards’ team. However, it does call some attention to another potential red flag for Edwards. Will he have the work ethic and dedication necessary to realize all his potential?

While Edwards has a jack-of-all-trades type of skillset on the offensive ends, he needs to constantly work at refining each and every one of those skills in order to become the elite scorer he has the potential to be. He has the foundation to be a great shooter and a great creator, but if he only ends up being just good – and not great – at either or both of those attributes, he’s going to amount to more of a tertiary scoring option or a second-unit guy, rather than an elite NBA scorer.

Fantasy Outlook

Edwards being drafted by the Timberwolves is equal parts intriguing and terrifying.

On paper, the situation is great. Russell and Towns are elite offensive players in need of a strong, third scoring option at the wing position. Edwards should also see a lot of run with veteran point guard Ricky Rubio, whose passing acumen always makes those around him better. Additionally, the competition for playing time for Edwards is rather minimal. Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver are the team’s other two primary shooting guards/small forwards, but neither has nearly as much upside or as much raw skill as Edwards. Okogie has significant defensive upside and Culver could end up being a solid scorer, but neither has the complete package that Edwards could provide.

Now for the terrifying component of Edwards joining the Timberwolves. The organization has been absolutely atrocious at developing young players over the past five-to-ten years. Towns is one of the very few counter-examples, though there’s probably an argument that he would be a perennial MVP candidate by now if he came up through most other systems.

Culver was a sixth overall pick in 2019 who the team already appears to be souring on after a rough rookie year. Okogie, who was taken 20^th overall in 2018, also hasn’t made many strides in his two seasons. But the most alarming example is a player with a very similar skillset to Edwards: Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins joined the Timberwolves prior to the 2014-15 NBA season as one of the top prospects in the NBA. He showed flashes of stardom and had all the tools to become an elite NBA swingman – like Edwards – but not only did he fail to develop into that star player, he regressed substantially during the prime of his NBA career. In his last full season with the Timberwolves, 2018-19, Wiggins shot just 41.2% from the field and averaged 18.1 points per game. Wiggins was 23 years old during this season, two years after he averaged 23.6 points per game and shot 45.2% from the field.

The Wiggins comparisons for Edwards are numerous. Everything from the tantalizing upside to the questions of whether there’s enough dedication to the game to enable his growth into stardom.

For the 2020-21 season, Edwards has a solid chance to lead all rookies in scoring. He should be able to average double-digits in points this year and he has a chance to average around 15 points per game if everything clicks. He could also hit around two threes per game this year. However, the rest of his stats might be a bit empty and he might struggle in field goal percentage due to his inconsistent history.

As for dynasty fantasy leagues, Edwards has a decent floor due to his raw abilities, but don’t sell out for the upside potential. In a few years, look for Edwards to offer a similar fantasy output as T.J. Warren did last year. Warren is a great offensive player who can score in a number of ways. Last year, he averaged 19.8 points and 1.4 threes per game while shooting 53.6% from the field and 81.9% from the line. Edwards is more athletic than Warren and he should be able to average more rebounds than Warren, who pulled down 4.2 boards per game last year, but he’s also unlikely to reach or even come close to that field goal percentage Warren maintained last year.

Edwards should be viewed as someone who will be worthy of a fourth or fifth-round pick in standard fantasy leagues in a few years with the upside to return the value of a late second-round pick and the downside to play like an eighth-round pick.

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