Battle of the Rookie Quarterbacks

September 29, 2018

The historic 2018 NFL Draft QB class has already taken the field. Daniel Benjamin decides which rookie quarterback will help fantasy football owners the most in redraft leagues.

The 2018 NFL draft is part of football history. The reason that the 2018 draft will always be remembered is that it marked just the third time in NFL history that at least five quarterbacks were selected in the first round in the modern era (since 1960). 1983 and 1999 are the other draft classes where five or more quarterbacks were chosen in the opening round of the draft.

With the Arizona Cardinals' Josh Rosen and the Cleveland Browns' Baker Mayfield making their professional debuts in Week 3, all five quarterbacks have now appeared in a game. Three of the rookie signal callers played in Week 1, although the New York Jets' Sam Darnold was the only one of the trio to garner a start. However, Darnold was not the first to participate in a game. That honor simultaneously goes to the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and the Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson as those two made relief appearances in the Ravens 47-3 victory over the Bills on Sept. 9. Darnold and the Jets didn't play until Monday night.

So, which of the five quarterbacks will have the best career? Only time will tell. The more important question for fantasy football players is which one of that quintet deserves a roster spot in redraft leagues?

Taking the Throne

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Mayfield was the first one off the board as the Browns made the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner the top overall pick as he was seen by the team as having the highest ceiling. The former University of Oklahoma star was not expected to see the field this early in the season as the Browns brought in veteran Tyrod Taylor in the offseason to be the starter. But he was essentially forced in last week's game when Taylor suffered a concussion during the second quarter of the Browns 21-17 come-from-behind win over the Jets. Mayfield will make his first start of the season in Week 4 against the Oakland Raiders.

Mayfield entered the Thursday night game with 1:23 left in the first half and subsequently led the team to a score on his opening possession under center to cut the Browns deficit to 14-3 at halftime. He went on to lead the Browns to four scores in eight possessions overall, two of those possessions consisted of kneel downs at the end of each half. Mayfield finished the game 17-of-23 (73.9%) for 201 yards.

Mayfield tallied 10 points in fantasy football last week.

Sam Darnold, New York Jets

Darnold was in the mix for being selected No. 1 overall as he was seen as being the readiest of the five quarterbacks coming out of college. The No. 3 overall selection has had an up-and-down campaign so far this season.

Darnold was stellar in his debut -- recovering nicely from having his first professional pass returned for a pick-six -- as he led the Jets to a 47-16 victory over the Detroit Lions.  The 21-year-old, who became the youngest quarterback to start a season opener since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, completed 16-of-21 passes for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Darnold averaged 9.4 yards per attempt in the game and registered solid QBR of 82.9 and Rating of 116.8.

The former USC Trojan hasn't been as good in his other two games. He is 56-of-93 (60.2%) for 701 yards to go along with three touchdowns and five interceptions for the season. However, he did throw for 334 yards on a career-high 41 attempts against Miami in Week 2.

Darnold ranks 29th among quarterbacks in fantasy points according to Pro Football Reference. His points vary depending on the scoring system from anywhere from 30 and 38.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen was seen as the most volatile of the five players entering the draft. While at Wyoming, he showed off tremendous upside due to his athleticism, big arm and courage. On the flip side, the big 6-foot-5, 240-pound gunslinger had issues with accuracy, turnovers and didn't possess the greatest intangibles.

Still, Buffalo's brass saw enough in him to move up a few spots and select him seventh overall. Make no mistake, Allen has been very good since taking over the starting job. He has demonstrated poise and maturity in the pocket while also showing off his playmaking ability -- both with his arm and feet. Yes, Allen has made mistakes and does not have pinpoint accuracy.

Allen has improved in each of his three appearances. He has gone from completing only 40% of his tosses after replacing Nathan Peterman in the season-opener to connecting on 68.18% (15-of-22) of his passes and a score against Minnesota last week, despite several drops. He recorded a season-high  111.2 quarterback rating against the Vikings.

For the season, Allen is completing  55. 7% of passes for 515 yards along wing two touchdowns an a pair of interceptions. He also has racked up 97 yards and two more scores on 22 carries.

Allen has produced between 46 and 52 fantasy points depending whether it is standard, PPR or another hybrid scoring system.

Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals

Rosen perhaps has the most upside of any in this quarterback class. The athletic 6-foot-4, 216-pounder possesses good footwork and a quick release. Accuracy is not a strong point and he sometimes tries to force things. He is also not a nimble runner and there are character concerns.

Rosen has the least experience as an NFL quarterback in the group. The No. 10 overall selection replaced Sam Bradford with a little over four minutes remaining last week. He completed four-of-seven passes for 36 yards in his one series and totaled 12 yards on one carry against the Bears. But the former UCLA Bruins star did throw a key fourth down interception that halted the Cardinals comeback attempt.

Rosen, who has seen action on 13 snaps, has accumulated one fantasy point so far.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

There was a lot of talk before the draft that Jackson would have to switch positions to just get a shot at the NFL. In a surprising move, the Ravens swooped in with a trade and nabbed him in the back end of the first round. He has been Joe Flacco's backup in every game and has even seen action in every contest.

Jackson is an elite athlete who has "football" skills not just the ability to play quarterback. He is definitely a better runner than passer at this point of his career. Therefore, there is some debate whether he will ever become a full-time starter.

Jackson has been on the field for 38 snaps this season. The Louisville product has completed one-of-his-four passes for 24 yards. He also has run the ball nine times for 45 yards. The interesting thing is that four of those runs have come in the red zone.

And the Winner Is...

This was a really tough question and with such limited information, there is no clear-cut answer. You also have to assume that each of the quarterbacks will get better as the season progresses.

Jackson won't get enough time on the field to qualify and is not an accurate enough passer. Rosen and Allen are on bad teams and don't have many offensive weapons.

Darnold hasn't shown the ability to spread the ball around yet and is prone to mistakes. He also has yet to show any willingness to run. Darnold has been sacked seven times and has totaled zero rushing yards on eight carries, although he does have a long run of six yards.

Mayfield is a precision passer and has a history of not throwing interceptions. He has the ability to scramble to avoid on-coming pass rushers and knows when to take off and run. The 23-year-old also a better arm than he is given credit for. Mayfield averaged more than 8.7 yards per pass attempt against the Jets --which would rank him among the top-10 quarterbacks if he qualified -- as he connected on two-of-five passes of 15 or more yards and five-of-nine on tosses of at least 10 yards.

More importantly, Mayfield has perhaps the best supporting cast on both sides of the ball of any of the rookies. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is one of the best receivers in the league, hauling in at least 84 passes and four touchdowns in each of his first four campaigns. Athletic and dynamic tight end David Njoku has shown that he is able to make big plays and running back Duke Johnson Jr., is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. 2018 fourth-round selection Antonio Callaway has shown promise as being a reliable receiver as has third-year pro Rashard Higgins through the first three games. Plus, the offensive line has come together since the start of the season and could provide ample protection for the new franchise QB in Cleveland.

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