October 27, 2017

Fantasy football strategy for owners holding onto ADP busts. Steve Rebeiro advises whether to hold, sell, or drop big name disappointments in 2017.

I've been writing a series of articles known as Disaster Recovery this season. Each week, I looked at typical must-start plays that turned in dud performances. You can call this list the Disaster Recovery All Stars. These guys would have appeared multiple times if I covered the same player two weeks in a row, and any of them who have qualified for the column this week have been featured.

The players listed below were players with relatively high average draft positions that have not lived up to where they were selected this season. Some of it is due to talent, some of it is due to opportunity, some of it is due to situation, and one player has experienced a combination of all three.

I'll be breaking down whether you should cut and run on these high draft picks, if you should try and make a trade, or if you should stay on course.

Let's Calm Down a Bit

Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) (4, 47 ADP)

Reed has been incredibly disappointing, but unless owners can command a ransom for him in a trade he should remain an every week plug and play unless you also own an elite tight end. He's one of the most talented tight ends in the league, he has a history of success with his quarterback, and he finally produced a real fantasy performance just last week. The fact that his season high in receiving is 64 yards is a concern, but Reed has seen at least five targets every game he has played this year and has a high floor compared to many other tight ends in that regard. Most importantly, tight end is weeeeaaak. Reed still managed to rank as Roto Baller's sixth overall tight end this week, and I'd even consider playing him over Hunter Henry and Kyle Rudolph. The cause for concern with Reed is much lower than the rest of this list.

Amari Cooper (WR, OAK) (9, 21 ADP)

Cooper would be in a much different spot on the list if not for the 210 yards and two touchdown performance he had last Thursday. If you want to hold onto Cooper, by all means, his talent and situation warrants it. But lets not forget that his previous five games consisted of receiving totals of 33, 6, 9, 8. and 28. This is as perfect of a sell high opportunity as I've ever seen. Could he go full Ajayi and post back to back 200 yard games? He has the talent to do so. But Cooper could potentially be flipped for a reliable WR2 or RB2 thanks to his big performance. It all depends on how much faith you have in Cooper. I'd personally try and move on. Either way, we need to end the notion that he may be droppable after his last game.

He's Been Bad, But You Got Someone Better?

Sammy Watkins (WR, LAR) (25, 56 ADP)

Watkins has been one of the most frustrating fantasy players this season. Since his dominant Week 3 performance against San Francisco, Watkins is averaging one reception for 18 yards per game. He's been completely unplayable in all formats.

The most frustrating thing about Watkins is that, unless you really need the roster space, I still wouldn't advise against cutting him, and nobody is going to want to trade for him. The three most important factors when scouting fantasy prospects is volume, opportunity, and talent, often in that order. Watkins has the latter two. He's played in at least 80% of snaps for the Rams during this four game stretch, and his talent still draws WR1 attention from opposing defenses. What are the odds that you're going to cut Watkins for somebody of equal talent and opportunity? Is it really worth dropping Watkins for a guy like Josh Doctson? He still makes for a better desperation play than many guys available, and has a bye week to try and figure it out with Jared Goff. It's just hard to justify cutting him for what's available in most leagues.

Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK) (12, 24 ADP)

Let me start by saying that Lynch's ADP was just as insane at the time as it is now. The guy didn't even play in the league last year and wasn't good the last time he was in the league. That being said, there's no reason to cut Lynch, just temper expectations massively. He isn't going to be relied on for 20 plus carries and he isn't going to have much of an impact out of the backfield. But he still should be good for somewhere between 40-80 yards when he plays and still should see goal line work for an offense that should start finding itself in the red zone. Lynch has the benefit of playing with a talented quarterback in a talented passing attack and no real threat on his starting job. You aren't going to find a RB1 in a better situation among available players. I'd still advise owners to try and sell the Beast Mode brand to an unsuspecting owner, but if you can't trade him there's no reason to cut him.

Maximum Panic Approaching, Consider Abandoning

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) (15, 28 ADP)

Crowell is the flip side to Lynch. He's still getting high volume, but he isn't playing with a talented quarterback, he doesn't have a talented passing game around him, and he kind of has a threat to his job in Duke Johnson. Crowell is averaging just 3.15 yards per rush this season and it doesn't look like its going to get any better. His volume still makes for an alright desperation play, but his lack of touchdown upside really derails his value. Any owner who has three other running backs that are useable should have no problem cutting Crowell. His volume makes him an asset, but he has done absolutely nothing with any of his opportunities this year. Crowell ranks 15th in carries but 44th in yards per rush out of 49 qualified players. It doesn't seem like he'll ever be a capable NFL running back.

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) (3, 37 ADP)

The Falcons offense this season looks nothing like the Kyle Shannahan-led unit that played for a Super Bowl last season. Despite ranking fifth in passing offense, the Falcons are 26th in passing touchdowns, 11th in interceptions, and in the middle of the pack in points per game. They haven't been abysmal, but nowhere near the level you'd expect them to be following last year, and it starts with Matt Ryan. The reigning NFL MVP is one interception away from matching his total from last season and has failed to find a real connection with Julio Jones this season. Most importantly for us, he's averaging the 22nd most points per game for quarterbacks, behind the likes of Eli Manning and Trevor Siemian. If you own any of the top 15 quarterbacks and have made it past their bye week, I wouldn't lose any sleep over cutting Ryan. He might improve, but there is no way he returns to MVP form with the current offensive situation. He's a QB2 at this point. Owners who like to keep one QB on the roster can cut and run on Ryan.

Jump Ship At All Costs

Terrelle Pryor (WR, WAS) (13, 31 ADP)

I warned owners to stay away from Pryor at his preseason ADP, but even I didn't imagine it going this poorly for him. Pryor has a season high of 70 yards in a game, just one touchdown on the year, and has seemingly lost the starting job to Josh Doctson. Doctson played 84% of Washington's snaps, while Pryor only appeared in 30%. Compare that to a 82% vs 26% difference just the week before in favor of Pryor. Pryor is no doubt an extremely talented football player, but we still have no idea if he can consistently produce at an NFL level. He had under 50 yards in more than half of his games last year and only produced at a high level when he was receiving crazy amounts of targets. Pryor owners should try and trade Pryor for whatever they can get due to his name recognition. If they can't get anything, there should be guys available with higher volume on the wire.

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