March 18, 2016

RotoBaller's staff rankings and projections for 2016 fantasy baseball relief pitchers (RP). Tiered MLB relief pitcher ranks, expert draft analysis and fantasy baseball advice.

It's only fitting that we close out the March rankings with the closers. Because these "firemen" are often on the hot seat, the value of a closer can change more quickly than any other position. While it is beyond the scope of this article, it is important to monitor the closer handcuffs as the season progresses and you can use Rotoballer's tools to do so. There are two strategies with closers: draft the top closers and avoid the headache of constantly monitoring their situation and replacement, or pick up cheap saves with an eye on the waiver wire. The strategy you employ may depend on the depth of your league (i.e. how easy it will be to pick potential closer replacements off the waiver wire) and how closely you will monitor the closer situations. You should also note that having questionable closers can often cause you to clog your roster with handcuffs, removing valuable roster space for useful streaming starters or platoon bats. All that strategy being discussed, time to move onto the pitchers themselves.

Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Relief Pitcher

There were a lot of notable changes in the circumstances of the first tier of closers (as defined by our composite rankings), which consists of Wade Davis, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Chapman is facing a 30 game suspension and a new league; Kimbrel is facing a new league; Davis has the closer role full time; and Jansen is not dealing with a spring injury this year. I dinged Chapman quite a bit for the 30 game suspension, which not only limits his stats but also occupies a roster spot for a good chunk of the season. Combine those issues with his high walk rate, his change of league, and a possible effect on his routine to prepare for the season, and I knocked him all the way to sixth despite his outstanding strikeout rate. I knocked Kimbrel due to a rising ERA and WHIP the last few years, combined with the league change. Nonetheless, he, Davis and Jansen constitute my first tier.

In my second tier, I'd have Zach Britton, Ken Giles, Chapman, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Cody Allen in that order. Britton posted a 1.9 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP, to go with 10.83 Ks/9 and a ridiculous 79.1% groundball rate. That should play well in front of Baltimore's incredible infield defense. Giles has a 1.56 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and 11.7k/9 the past two years; his numbers trended in the wrong direction last year but he is only 25. Chapman has an absurd 15.4k/9 career rate, but his WHIP is slightly over 1 due to issues with walks. Familia had a 1.85 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 9.9k/9 last year, but isn't higher due to his shorter track record combined with outperforming his FIP. Robertson has a 2.44 ERA, 1.06WHIP and 12.3k/9 over the last four years; even though his ERA has risen over the years, his WHIP has declined and his K-rate has remained similar. Allen has a 2.44 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 12.0k/9 the past three years, with his K-rate increasing each year.

Outside my top two tiers, there are five players who I rated significantly differently than my peers.

Overrated

Trevor Rosenthal

Rosenthal has WHIPs of 1.41 and 1.27 the past two years. He has ERAs of 3.2 and 2.1. Despite an 11.00 K/9 rate, those other numbers are too concerning to have him ranked so highly. He has been the beneficiary of a lot of save opportunities, but his other numbers are not top 10 material.

Brad Boxberger

Boxberger is getting too much credit in the rankings for his 2014. Among his four seasons, his 2014 sticks out like a sore thumb: he has posted WHIPs of 1.45, 1.46, 0.85, 1.37, K-rates of 10.7, 9.8, 14.5, and 10.6, FIPs of 4.29, 4.41, 2.84, and 4.26. Based on these numbers, 2014 appears to be the exception rather than the rule and he is a risky pick, despite the upside.

Underrated

A.J. Ramos

With the Carter Capps injury, Ramos has the closer job all to himself. Over the past two years, he has posted a 2.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.3k/9, followed up by a 2.3 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 11.1k/9. The biggest issue is that he has outperformed his FIP, but nonetheless, he has posted a low 2s ERA with a great strikeout rate and good WHIP, and has his hand on the job. He is thus being ranked too low by my peers.

Francisco Rodriguez

K-Rod has played 14 seasons, and despite a shaky 2012, he has been consistently very good. He has a career 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. The past two years, he has a 2.66 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 82 saves and 9.7 K/9. Despite changing leagues this season, there is reason to believe that at 36 he still has enough left in the tank to post another very good season.

Jake McGee

Since 2012, McGee has a 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 11.4 Ks/9. In those years, he has posted ERAs of 1.95, 4.02, 1.89, and 2.41, K-rates of 11.9, 10.8, 11.4, and 11.6, and WHIPs of 0.80, 1.18, 0.90, and 0.94. Thus, in three of the last four years he has been elite, while he was somewhat serviceable in the other. The obvious issue is that he is moving to Coors Field, and everyone knows that it is an extreme hitters' park. Nonetheless, McGee's fastball should play well there, and even with the effects of Coors, he should post good numbers with significant upside.

Relief Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

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