MLB Trade Deadline Analysis and Fantasy Baseball Impacts

Well it’s been a crazy deadline hasn’t it? Lots of big names on the move to new teams, and with that, lots of players who have changing value in fantasy baseball. I’m going to highlight some major players who have changed teams and how I expect it’ll impact their values.

 

Trade 1

Red Sox send Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to Athletics for Yoenis Cepesdes

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Jon Lester - SP, OAK

To date, Jon Lester has been a top-12 starting pitcher in Yahoo leagues, pitching to a 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.38 K/9, all while pitching in a park that is known more for giving us big hits over the famous Green Monster than for being pitching-friendly.

That all changes with the move to spacious O.co Coliseum. The move to a pitcher-friendly park should augur an uptick in Lester’s value (if that's even possible), and he may get more wins since the Athletics are one of the best offenses in baseball this year. Lester could easily break the top 10 pitchers after this trade.

Additional fallout from this move means one of Jason Hammel and Jesse Chavez could find himself going to Oakland’s bullpen. If I owned either, I’d keep a close watch on the news coming out of Oakland, although it's widely believed the Hammel will remain in the rotation and Chavez will be moved to a relief role.

 

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Yoenis Cespedes - OF, BOS

With this trade, the Red Sox won the Home Run Derby next year! Yoenis Cespedes on the season as an Athletic had a triple slash of .256/.303/.464 with 17 HR, 62 R, 67 RBI and 3 SB. I expect almost all of these numbers to improve in his new home in Boston. The Green Monster is no match for the monster power that Cespedes brings to the table. Expect all of his power numbers to go up, and I bet his average can even raise 15-20 points, as well.

 

Trade 2

Tigers send Drew Smyly and Willy Adames to Rays, Austin Jackson to Mariners
Rays send David Price to Tigers, Mariners send Nick Franklin to Rays

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: David Price - SP, DET

This is a day that saw two pitchers in the top 20 being traded. David Price's move was probably the most anticipated of the day, and the Tigers did a great job to get him at the price that they paid. On the year, Price has pitched to a 3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.97 K/9.

He has also only gotten better as the year has worn on after a rough start to the season. So how does the move to the Tigers impact his value? He will get more run support, and he is on a team competing for sure for a playoff spot-- like, Lester, it's hard to believe that Price's value could increase much, but I believe this is an ideal landing spot for his fantasy managers.

 

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Drew Smyly - SP, TB

As I said in my waiver wire pickup article, I really liked Drew Smyly to break out this season. It didn't quite happen this year, although he had been on a roll recently until yesterday's start. Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey seems to know how to get the most talent out of young kids, and I don't think Smyly will be any different.

Currently Smyly is pitching to a 3.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.80 K/9. My "bold prediction" is that I expect Smyly to be more of a 3.50 pitcher this year, to bring the WHIP down and see an uptick in strikeouts.  I know people are upset with the Rays' haul, but Drew Smyly is a solid pickup under team control for a few years.

 

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Austin Jackson - OF,  SEA

The Mariners got the center fielder they were looking for in Austin Jackson, and all they had to give up was Nick Franklin. I love this deal for them. Austin Jackson provides the bona fide hitter with upside that the Mariners desperately needed to add. It's helpful that he no longer has to compete with Rajai Davis for the leadoff spot, which means he should be in line to score more runs. However, the Tigers are a bit more of an offensive juggernaut than the Mariners are, so I'm not sure how much of an uptick in value I'd expect. This one may end up as a wash, but with how Jackson has been playing recently, he's still a very solid OF4 or even OF3 in most leagues.

 

Trade 3

Red Sox send John Lackey and Corey Littrell to Cardinals for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: John Lackey - STL, SP

John Lackey has been very serviceable this season, notching a 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.60 K/9. He's even managed to win 11 games while pitching for the light-hitting 2014 Red Sox-- a fairly impressive feat. Well, now Lackey finds himself in the National League, and it should be an improvement for his value. Similarly to Lester, Lackey finds himself going from a hitter-friendly home park to a more neutral home environment, and in Lackey's case, it doesn't hurt that he gets to face a pitcher in the batting order two or three times a game now. The Cardinals are another organization that seem to know how to get the most out of their pitchers, so watch for Lackey to be a solid contributor for the few months that remain.

 

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Allen Craig - OF, BOS

Boston really did a good job solidifying it's outfield for next year. Okay, so Craig is not performing his best this year, compiling a .237/.291/.346 with 7 HR, 34 R, 44 RBI and a steal. But in the past two seasons, he did reach 90 RBI, and I don't think that kind of talent just suddenly goes away.

Both his average and power numbers should get a boost from moving to Fenway, just like Cespedes. I wouldn't be rushing to go pick him up, but he is someone that I would keep an eye on. Additional fallout from this deal is that it opens more regular playing time for highly touted Cardinals prospect Oscar Taveras, who is certainly worth a flier in many leagues if he is still sitting on the waiver wire.

 

Trade 4

Red Sox send Stephen Drew to Yankees for Kelly Johnson

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Stephen Drew - SS, NYY

I wouldn't have put this trade on the list, but it covers a shortstop position that is relatively thin. I wasn't a huge fan of Stephen Drew to start the season, so it didn't surprise me to see him sitting out there as a free agent for a while. However, he has been heating up with the bat lately, and it's no secret that the Yankees offense needs help. Also, Drew is going to play 2B for the Yankees after they designated Brian Roberts for assignment. That means Drew will gain 2B eligibility as well, which alone would make him a more intriguing MI option for flexibility. When you consider his recently improved performance and the short porch in Yankee Stadium, I like this deal to increase his fantasy value a bit.

 

Honorable Mentions

Asdrubal Cabrera traded to the Nationals 

Cabrera should gain 2B eligibility, because the Nats intend to use him there and shift Rendon over to third to cover for the injured Zimmerman. He should score more runs in that lineup.

Martin Prado traded to the Yankees

Leaving the 2014 Diamondbacks means you can expect that it'll increase your offensive value. Prado will primarily play in RF spelling a player here or there for rest days. Expect increased overall offensive output from Prado.

 

That's it for now guys! Hope you enjoyed reading. For my thoughts on how more trades impacted fantasy values feel free to follow and tweet @RekedFantasy and I'd be happy to answer your questions.