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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 6 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I had a solid week last week, but missing the 10-point pick ruined what would have been a really good week. chrismiller19 led the way with 43 points in Week 5. Mike - 50 YrO was the only other entry to hit 40 points. A good week from BamaBoy moved him up in the overall rankings.
We have a new group leader this week. chrismiller19 used his group-leading week to take the top overall spot in the standings with 194 points. Pick-and-Morty is holding onto second place with 191 points. BamaBoy moved up two spots to third place with 185 points. Riley is fourth with 183 points. kingrah23 rounds out the top five with 181 points.
One big week can still move up the list quickly. 11 entries have over 170 points. 17 more have over 160 points. The distance between first and 40th place is only 40 points.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there!
(1) Maryland over Washington
It's another one of those unconventional matchups that is now a conference game. Don't worry, this will still be unconventional. There are so many teams in these conferences that teams still only play twice every 10 years in some cases.
I'm trying to steal some points here. The public is heavy on Washington (68%), but FPI gives Maryland a 48.5% chance at a home win. Vegas still favors the Huskies by 5.5, but I'm a believer in Malik Washington.
Maryland’s Malik Washington in 2025:
vs FAU - 258 yds, 3 TD
vs NIU - 254 yds, 2 TD
vs TOW - 261 yds, TD, INT
@ WIS - 265 yds, 2 TDWashington’s 1,038 pass yds are the MOST for a Power Conf true freshman in his 1st 4 games since 2019 (Jayden Daniels, 1,073).
Stellar start. pic.twitter.com/TWpizB4a2O
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 22, 2025
This is why Mike Locksley was the right hire for Maryland and why the Terps never chased him out when the team was struggling. This is a young team that has quietly become loaded with talent. They show it here against a Washington team that is not-so-quietly loaded with talent, at least on offense.
(2) Miami (FL) over Florida State
What we saw in Charlottesville is not indicative of the kind of team that Florida State is. We also haven't seen Miami in a road environment yet this season. The public (81%), FPI (65.3%), and Vegas (-6.5) points all favor Miami rather heavily. I think this causes many entries to wager more points on this one.
The Wahoo fans storming the field in Charlottesville is the iconic college football image of 2025 so far. It's fresh in the minds of people picking these. I remember how Florida State looked at home against Alabama a little over a month ago.
I think the Seminoles show up here and make this uncomfortably close. Uncomfortable enough for me to keep it on the lower end of my confidence scale. Also, Paul Finebaum gave Miami his stamp of approval, and we all know he doesn't know jack about football.
(3) Vanderbilt over Alabama
We are about to witness a Top 25 ranked vs. ranked Alabama and Vanderbilt football game for the FIRST time since 1937. pic.twitter.com/jhklH1B4kD
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 28, 2025
I want to try to steal points here, but Vanderbilt hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 1984. Bama are heavy favorites (-11.5 in Vegas, 74.3% FPI) everywhere, including the public (85%). Can Vanderbilt win this game? Yes. Will Vanderbilt have to play nearly flawless football in order to do so? Yes.
The Alabama defense will be able to slow down the Commodores. Overshadowed by the point outbursts of the last couple of weeks is Vanderbilt's inability to run the ball. Diego Pavia is the leading rusher with 294 yards in five games.
Florida State beat Alabama by attacking the front and grinding away at them on the ground. Vanderbilt likely won't be able to do that. I would love to see another Vandy win, so I'm keeping this low. However, I feel like the metrics are right. Alabama would have to play a really bad game to lose at home.
(4) Kansas over Central Florida
Jalon Daniels is really talented, but... The same thing has been true since 2022. Daniels can't play defense. The Kansas defense was exposed by Cincinnati last week. UCF will likely be able to do the same. I just like the Kansas offense to outscore the Knights and make one or two fewer mistakes. Whatever the over is, I'm taking it.
FPI thinks the same as I do (55.9% chance of a Kansas win). The public is slower to come around (43%). If I were more confident in this, I would move it up. This is a good place to gain some points. However, relying on the Kansas defense to come through is risky business.
(5) Texas over Florida
The last time we played Texas… 😬 pic.twitter.com/3dpn8qx0rg
— Florida Gators 🐊🔥 (@gatorsszn) September 30, 2025
Florida's offense is a dumpster fire right now. The Gators have scored 16 points or fewer in three straight games. The last time that happened was at the end of the 2016 season. The Texas defense is good enough to make that four in a row.
However, the core of this offense already saved Billy Napier's job last year. Can they do it again? Florida fans on X are actively hoping Florida loses this game so Napier can be fired. Where's the logic in that?
His buyout is $21 million, with $10 million due at firing. That's significant, even for a school like Florida. The buyout goes down a little after the season is over. It's more likely Florida would fire Napier then, compared to this point in the season.
Texas's offense wasn't good until Arch Manning got his groove back against a bad Sam Houston team. I fully expect the Florida defense to get after Arch and force him into more mistakes. Texas is not a lock to win in the Swamp by any means, no matter what FPI tells you (76.7%).
Texas only mustered seven points against Ohio State on the road. Florida's defense isn't Ohio State's, but it's close. I expect a closer game this year since Texas hasn't been tested since Week 1. Florida's whole season after the Long Island game has been a test.
(6) Duke over California
I would have this game higher if it weren't for the East Coast team playing at night on the West Coast. This game doesn't kick off until 10:30 p.m. Eastern time. Most players are in bed by that time on game days. I want to move this higher since so much of the public is on Cal (66%).
The FPI ranking is supposed to account for time zone differential as well. If that's true, Duke should win going away. FPI gives the Blue Devils a 62.2% chance at a win. Vegas has Duke as a 3.5-point favorite.
I really wouldn't view this as an upset. Duke's losses are to a good Illinois team and a solid Tulane team on the road. Cal got blanked by San Diego State.
(7) Baylor over Kansas State
Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson leads the nation in passing yards, passing touchdowns and total touchdowns.
- 1,713 passing yards
- 17 passing TDs
- 18 total TDs#SicEm 🐻 pic.twitter.com/A8BjglicW8— Grayson Grundhoefer (@GrayGrundhoefer) September 29, 2025
The public is very heavy on Baylor (92%), but should we be? Baylor lost at home to Auburn and Arizona State. Baylor's defense is going to give up a lot of yards and points, but Kansas State doesn't have the deep threat to get to Baylor. Auburn has Cam Coleman. Arizona State has Jordyn Tyson. K-State? Jace Brown. Brown, while good, is not good enough to take the top off of this defense.
Baylor is only a 5.5-point favorite in Vegas, but FPI has them at 61%. That's about what I would consider, so I'm not putting more points on this.
(8) Iowa State over Cincinnati
I'm nervous putting this up here. I don't think Cincinnati has a ton of talent, but they play tough. They give it all every game. You never watch a Cincinnati game and feel like the Bearcats left something in the tank. Too many teams don't play like that.
Iowa State, and particularly Rocco Becht, look better and better every game. Chase Sowell finally gave Becht a receiver that he can feel comfortable throwing to in high-pressure situations. That wasn't in the Iowa State offense before the bye.
FPI isn't helping my anxiety over this game (51.5% for Iowa State). Neither is Vegas. Cincinnati is a slight home favorite in this one (1.5 points). The public slamming Iowa State (85%) is where I would usually take the other side and try to steal points.
I won't do that here. Cincinnati is what Iowa State was two years ago. The Cyclones perfected what Cincinnati is doing right now. I'll take the old dogs over the new tricks.
(9) Louisville over Virginia
The Cardinals haven't hit their stride yet, but the Louisville defense isn't as forgiving as Florida State's. The Seminoles pressured Chandler Morris into mistakes. Louisville will do the same. The difference is that Louisville won't let Morris take over on the ground.
FPI gives Louisville a slight edge (56%), but Vegas has the Cardinals at nearly a touchdown favorite (-6.5) at home. I'm siding with Vegas here. This feels like an overreaction to Virginia ambushing the Seminoles last Friday.
(10) UNLV over Wyoming
Altitude only means so much. The Wyoming football team is awful, no matter where you play them. FPI has UNLV as a massive favorite (73.5%), but Vegas only has the Rebels favored by 5.5.
I get it. UNLV's defense is an adventure at best. That said, the Wyoming offense is stuck in neutral during its best games. The Cowboys have only scored 67 points in four games. 31 of those were against FCS Northern Iowa.
