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Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 9 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 9 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Alec Bohm, Logan Henderson, Juan Soto, and Jeff Hoffman.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
We now have a couple of months of data, so there are plenty of opportunities to dig deep into player performance. Let's take a closer look at some Fantasy Risers and Fallers!
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 25, 2025.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (3B)
.267/.304/.382 Slash Line, 4 HRs, 20 RBI, 1 SB
Alec Bohm had a slow start to the season, which is uncharacteristic of his typical high floor. However, he has picked things up lately, slashing .333/.376/.538 in May. Is it back to business as usual for him?
Fortunately, signs under the hood point to yes. Bohm's overall Statcast page resembles his previous seasons, with most of his metrics at least league-average. His May has made up for his poor March and April. He hit just .221 with five extra-base hits (no home runs) in the first two months but has hit .333 with eight extra-base hits (four HRs) in May with two-thirds as many at-bats.
Alec Bohm’s stats in his last 30 games:
111 AB | 36 H | 3 HR | 14 RBI | 7 BB | 16 K | 14 R | .324/.374/.459pic.twitter.com/fDxFttC6Zo
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) May 22, 2025
There is still one aspect of his game that negatively stands out. Bohm's 7.1-degree launch angle is his lowest since 2021. He has hit the ball hard, but it hasn't translated into much power. Bohm has never hit for a ton of power, but his .382 slugging percentage is below his .414 career average.
Bohm may not be the flashiest fantasy option, but he has exposure to a strong lineup and is currently on a hot streak. He is a worthwhile fantasy starter in general and has been a particularly good option lately.
Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels (OF)
.230/.276/.526 Slash Line, 15 HRs, 37 RBI
Taylor Ward's season numbers may not stand out, but he has hit for plenty of power and has had a solid May overall. What should fantasy managers expect from him for the rest of the month and beyond?
Unlike Bohm, Ward’s batted-ball profile has been relatively consistent the entire season. He has always hit the ball hard and has a career-high 92-MPH average exit velocity.
🚨 TAYLOR WARD GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAM 🚨 pic.twitter.com/NLi5OcaSoY
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) May 22, 2025
His fly-ball rate in May has risen to 55.9% from 48.8%, but his hard-hit rate has remained about the same. This simply seems to be normal regression, as his BABIP jumped to .300 from .192 and his HR/FB rate doubled.
Ward has been a useful fantasy player throughout his career and a consistent source of power. His recent surge makes him a prime candidate to boost fantasy managers’ lineups in the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 25, 2025.
Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
3-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39% Strikeout Rate, 16 IP
Two months into the season, it becomes rarer to find a potential fantasy steal. Logan Henderson has made a strong impression, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a ridiculous 39% strikeout rate in his first three big-league starts.
Logan Henderson is making a great first impression in the Majors 🔥
(MLB x @SageUSAmerica) pic.twitter.com/wsyrMXMmTt
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) May 21, 2025
The interesting thing is that Henderson is essentially a two-pitch pitcher. His four-seamer only sits at 93 MPH, but his high spin rate has helped induce a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. He pairs that with a changeup that has gotten a 15.8% swinging-strike rate.
He is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher, with an average launch angle of 25.7 degrees. He has allowed middling hard contact, but his approach has been effective with a .233 BABIP.
No one should expect Henderson's elite ERA to persist or for him to maintain a 39% strikeout rate. Even with expected regression, I am skeptical that he can maintain strong results as a starter with his fastball-changeup combo. However, there isn't much harm in fantasy managers keeping him around for a few more starts to see how things play out.
Logan Evans, Seattle Mariners
2-1, 3.33 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 17.9% Strikeout Rate, 27 IP
There's more than one young Logan pitcher on the fantasy radar. Logan Evans has made the most of his opportunities with several Mariners starters on the injured list, compiling a 3.33 ERA in five starts. Which Logan has the brighter short-term fantasy future?
Unlike Henderson, Evans has a full six-pitch mix at his disposal. Unfortunately, only about half of those pitches have yielded strong results. Evans does appear to be learning, as he has started using his changeup more, which has been his best secondary pitch.
Logan Evans, Dirty 88mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/xDES2ZuNjo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025
His inflated WHIP seems to be due to bad luck. His 7.7% walk rate is fine and his batted-ball profile is roughly league-average, but his .305 BABIP is slightly elevated. He has also had some bad home run luck, as his 16.1% HR/FB rate does not quite align with his batted-ball profile.
At this point, Henderson may have a longer run in the rotation than Evans due to injuries and depth. Evans doesn't have the strikeout stuff of Henderson but does have a favorable home ballpark and gets a decent matchup against the Nationals in his next.
Henderson presents more potential fantasy value long-term, but Evans is a decent stream for next week at least.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 25, 2025.
Juan Soto, New York Mets (OF)
.241/.370/.422 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 23 RBI, 6 SBs
The first season of Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract is not going quite as planned with a pedestrian .241/.370/.422 slash line. Should fantasy managers be worried, or is it just a slow start?
The tangibles mostly look good. Soto has impacted the ball as well as ever, and his Statcast page is very red. His approach at the plate also looks solid, with a 17.4% walk rate and a 16.5% strikeout rate.
The part of his game that numbers can’t explain is mental. Soto hasn't exactly settled in smoothly with the Mets, and there have been issues with his hustle. He has always been a high-profile player, but he is just 26 years old and now has a lot of pressure on him.
Soto has not produced to the level fantasy managers expect. His relatively poor performance may not be due to mechanical issues, but fantasy managers will just need to be patient with him. His track record and skills are too great for fantasy managers to get impatient at this time.
Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants (3B)
.214/.335/.401 Slash Line, 9 HRs, 25 RBI, 5 SBs
Matt Chapman had a solid first season with the Giants in 2024 but hasn't followed it up as well in 2025. He does have nine long balls and five stolen bases, but he has not provided much batting average or power. What should fantasy managers do with him?
Some of this seems to be due to bad luck. Chapman has impacted the ball very hard as he always has, but his .256 BABIP is much lower than his .293 career mark. Both his expected batting average of .245 and expected slugging percentage of .467 are higher than his current numbers.
On the other hand, these sorts of swings are not new to Chapman. He has only batted above .249 once in his career, and he has produced mediocre slugging percentages before despite hitting the ball hard. The good thing is that he has kept his strikeouts in control at 26% and has walked a career-high 15.3%, but neither of these explicitly helps his average or power.
While he hasn't been great, Chapman has provided decent counting stats for roto leagues, and his high walk rate has helped maintain his value in points leagues. Fantasy managers in win-now mode may want to switch him out for a hot bat, but it seems the ideal strategy would be to hold onto him and wait for regression.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 25, 2025.
Jeff Hoffman, Toronto Blue Jays
10-13 Save Opportunities Converted, 6.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 37% Strikeout Rate, 46 2/3 IP
Jeff Hoffman's save count, WHIP, and strikeout rate this season all look like those of a higher-end closer. However, his bloated 6.04 ERA is a stark contrast to the rest of his stats. Should fantasy managers be worried about his job security?
As I mentioned, the good news is that he has fundamentally done a good job as a closer. His strikeout rate is a career-high, he has avoided putting runners on for free with a 6.5% walk rate, and he has allowed league-average hard contact with a respectable 13.3-degree launch angle.
He has experienced some bad luck, something out of his control. His WHIP has been higher than in previous seasons because his BABIP has jumped to .319 despite a decent batted-ball profile. Home runs have been a huge source of bad luck. Hoffman's 32.7% FB rate is lower than his career mark of 39.9%, but his 29.4% HR/FB rate is a career-high and is over double his career average.
The pieces have been there for Hoffman, but a few too many home runs have inflated his ERA. Only one other pitcher has seen a save opportunity for the Blue Jays in the last 15 days, so they seem to believe in Hoffman, which should be good enough for fantasy managers for now.
For the latest bullpen news, be sure to check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Chart series.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
3-6, 5.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 23.6% Strikeout Rate, 61 2/3 IP
Zac Gallen has been a higher-end fantasy option throughout his career, but has been difficult to figure out at times. This season has been frustrating from the start, given his 5.25 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. What has been going on?
The main problem has been an increase in contact in the air. Gallen has allowed a career-high 17.3-degree launch angle, much higher than his career average of 12.4 degrees. He has also allowed hard contact, so while his current HR/FB rate is in line with his career mark, he’s allowed more HR at a 1.46 HR/9 rate.
He has paired this with an increase in walks. Gallen has allowed a career-high 10.9% walk rate, meaning that almost half his long balls have come with runners on base.
Essentially, Gallen has mixed the two worst results of pitching: hard contact in the air and putting runners on for free. Fantasy managers could attempt to sell him low, but his value would be very low.
Fortunately, his next matchup is a favorable one against the Pirates. Hopefully, he can put forth a solid showing to either help him get things on the right track or at least boost his fantasy value.
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