September 3, 2024

What running backs for fantasy football have some potential red flags and should be avoided in 2024 drafts? Kyle Lindemann breaks down five backs to avoid.

Alright, fantasy footballers, let’s talk about the elephant in the room--or rather, the running backs in your draft queue. This position, folks, is the Bermuda Triangle of the NFL; players disappear faster than you can say “contract extension.” With NFL front offices and coaches prioritizing running backs less than ever, there are several backs littered across the draft landscape who could be landmines.

We’re diving into the nitty-gritty, pinpointing five running backs who are currently sitting a little too pretty in their draft positions. Conventional wisdom might push you to grab a stud RB early, but why not break the mold? Imagine locking down an elite receiver instead. These positions bring less drama and more consistency. Once Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall are off the board, maybe give those some of those high-maintenance RBs a hard pass this year.

Here’s the real talk. History tells us that sustaining peak performance is tough for running backs, much tougher than for other positions. These players aren’t necessarily heading for a cliff, but if you’re spending a top pick on them expecting last season’s glory, you might just end up with a front-row seat to a fantasy faceplant. Let's navigate through these turbulent waters and steer clear of these overhyped rushers in 2024

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Williams is going off the board as the RB8 with an ADP of 17.0 and him making the running back fade list for 2024 has nothing to do with him returning punts. It has everything to do with his size as a sub-200 lb. back on top of the Rams drafting Blake Corum from Michigan in the third round (No. 83 overall) of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Kyren had a phenomenal 2023 season with 228 rushes for 1,144 yards (5.o YPC) and 12 touchdowns to go with 32 receptions for 206 yards and three more scores. He was placed on injured reserve for four games after suffering a high-ankle sprain and missed most of his rookie season in 2022 with a broken foot. It's fair to question at this stage if Kyren is able to hold up for an entire season at his size.

McVay said in his press conference on Tuesday that Kyren Williams will be the team’s primary punt returner to start the season.

"It's another opportunity for him to get touches and impact the game," McVay said. "And you feel comfortable with that because of the confidence in… pic.twitter.com/zsh7WzwJyD

— RambLAng Man (@RambLAngMan) August 28, 2024

Williams led the NFL with 19.0 carries per game in 2023 while ranking fourth on rush attempts inside the 10 yard-line and was eight in the number of rushes inside the five. He was very efficient last year and was a big part of the Rams success. While there is no denying that he's a solid back, it's pretty clear that the Rams drafted Corum for a reason. Last season, Williams averaged 5.0 yards per carry, which was incredibly high. Can he sustain that again in 2024?

Meanwhile, Corum is two-plus seasons removed from an ACL tear, but fresh off a season with 27 touchdowns! He might not be a burner, but Corum does all of the little things exceptionally well, including picking up those tough yards. In many ways, he is a very similar back to Williams, which has plenty out there feeling like this could become more of a backfield split than expected.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Maybe Henry really is just a cyborg after all. He was one of the ten fastest ball carries in 2023 according to Next Gen Stats, but he will turn 31 years of age before the season is over. Henry also ranks second among active running backs with 2,185 career touches. Only Ezekiel Elliott has more with 2,421. To put it in perspective, Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is almost two years older than Henry and has just 766 career touches.

He's going off draft boards as the RB9 with an overall ADP of 18.0. The guy led the NFL with a hefty 280 carries, piling up 1,167 yards and scoring 12 times. Toss in 28 receptions for an extra 214 yards, and you've got a season many backs would tweet about. However, Henry's 4.2 yards per tote dipped to a personal low since 2017. Now was that due to the Titans' porous offensive line or signs of a Henry decline?

The funny part about Henry’s “down year” is that it was better than most backs’ career peaks. However, the inevitable cliff has to come at some point and it's better to be a year early than a year too late on a back like this.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one was the toughest of the five on the list because pass-catching running backs are such a cheat code for fantasy. White is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league but was one of the NFL's least efficient runners in 2023, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. What's ironic about that is he still maintained a workhorse back type of role, seeing a total of 336 touches, which was second only to Christian McCaffrey with 339.

White is currently the RB13 in drafts with an overall ADP of 35.0. He finished as the RB10 in 2023, but he was mostly a stat sheet stuffer. White snagged the fourth highest snap share, the seventh spot in opportunity share, and was even fourth in weighted opportunities. The guy was a magnet for the ball with ranks like second in carries, ninth in targets, and ninth in red zone touches. But here’s the kicker, the volume was there, but the fireworks? Not so much.

Dig a little deeper, and you’ll find White was more of a fantasy workhorse than a fantasy racehorse. He was way down at 42nd in making defenders miss and 40th in breaking off those big, explosive runs per PFF. Even his after-contact yardage left him in the dust at 45th among his running back peers. Sure, he saw a heap of targets, but when it came to efficiency, he was way back at 43rd, and his yards per routes run (1.22 per PFF) weren't exactly top tier either.

Is Alvin Kamara similar to the 2023 value of Rachaad White? pic.twitter.com/nf0ndpFsWD

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) September 2, 2024

Heading into 2024, keep an eye out for Bucky Irving. That kid might just start carving up a decent chunk of the action, making the Bucs backfield a bit more of a tag team effort. Temper those expectations for White with a dose of reality on his efficiency and the potential for Irving to mix things up. Seeing 336 touches again feels rare.

Saints running back Alvin Kamara is a similar version of White, only a better pass catcher set to see a workhorse-type of role at a reduced cost.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

There was plenty of optimism surrounding Stevenson heading into the offseason. The Patriots re-signed him to a 4-year / $36 million contract, and he appears entrenched as the team's RB1. However, the organization completely cleaned house moving on from legendary coach Bill Belichick and decided to draft North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye at No. 3 overall.

While this is undoubtedly a solid move for the Patriots long-term, it is fair to think that they have a bottom five offense heading into the season with issues along the offensive line and not many proven pass catchers. The team also brought in veteran scat back Antonio Gibson, who is one of the league's better pass-catching backs. There's no doubt that Rhamondre will get run, but it's fair to question just how involved Gibson will be out of the backfield.

Stevenson is being drafted as the RB20 with an overall ADP of 59.0. While his ADP probably feels "about right" to most, we don't want Stevenson to finish as the RB20 if we draft him, we want to be targeting other positions or drafting running backs in Stevenson's place who have RB1 upside instead. This is why many refer to the area of the draft where Stevenson is going as the "Running Back Dead Zone."

Unless New England's offense completely shocks the world this season, it's hard to see a top 12 finish for Stevenson as thing's currently sit. There are reasons to be optimistic about the Patriots potential rebuild for the long haul, but they feel like a bad team who will struggle to move the ball consistently in 2024.

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders

White’s entering the 2024 fantasy fray with more hype than a blockbuster movie premiere, thanks to some solid spot starts last season when Josh Jacobs was sidelined. Yet, before we all jump aboard the Zamir express, let's temper those expectations a bit. Last year, filling in for Jacobs, White racked up 285 yards off 59 carries and snagged eight passes across four games, not bad, but not exactly earth-shattering either.

Now, Raiders' head coach Antonio Pierce is preaching about shaping the Raiders into a tough, smashmouth squad. Sounds great for branding, but it might just cramp White’s style on the field. Given the Raiders' expected slow game pace and heavy run strategy, White's opportunities could be more squeezed than we'd like. Plus, with only 17 receptions over his three years at Georgia, questions loom large about his ability to contribute to the passing game--a critical aspect for fantasy backfield success.

Zamir White managers when Dylan Laube catches 4 balls for 38 yards in a 2 minute drill after watching White grind out 7.5 PPR points for 3 hours. pic.twitter.com/UtAsf3DRlK

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) August 29, 2024

White's definitely a heartwarming story and a guy you want to see succeed, but let’s not gloss over the Raiders' crowded backfield scene. Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube, who's already drawing Danny Woodhead-like praise for his hands, are in the mix. With the Raiders' quarterback situation looking less than stellar, banking on White to deliver fantasy gold feels like a long shot.

Sure, if the Raiders magically notch over 10-plus wins and White punches in 12+ touchdowns, he’ll be a steal, but that’s a script better suited for Hollywood than your 2024 fantasy lineup. Stay sharp and maybe let someone else bet big on White.

He's going off the board as the RB24, with an overall ADP of 69.0. While that might not seem overly costly, White falls into very much of the same bucket as Rhamondre Stevenson in terms of feeling like his upside is capped. There are better alternatives instead.

Honorable Mention

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane is listed as the RB10, with an overall ADP of 20.0. That might feel rich for much of the fantasy football market and understandably so. However, if he were to carve out a larger role in the Dolphins offense and see a majority snap share, he could easily finish as a top five running back in fantasy. The only thing standing between Achane and shattering the running back position for fantasy simply comes down to his overall touches.

Do you want to make your stands in 2024 betting on talent or betting on situation? Elite talents don't change, situations do.

Thanks for reading! Best of luck in your fantasy football drafts this year and don't forget to follow me on X!

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