RADIO
It has been quite some time since I have been THIS tentative to place any bets despite it being the final major of the year. Maybe I am savoring "the process" of my last date night with my high school sweetheart before heading off to fall season college where I promise to not fall in love with the Olympics or Presidents Cup (of which I will have a front row seat for this year). Let's be honest here Mrs. Major, we know the long-distance thing is not going to work out, but let's pretend it will and then see where we stand next April?
Or maybe my weather woman ex-girlfriend has me looking over my shoulder waiting to expose any bad decision I ever made, as her Scottish bi-polar personality has once again reared its head this week. Weather conditions at Royal Troon have changed more than Beyonce's outfits at the Super Bowl Halftime show! But, alas, we sit here on Wednesday morning having to pull the trigger on some bets!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10
The Open Championship has some really sticky trends when it comes to prior major success. Since 2012 every winner of The Open Championship had a win or runner up finish in a prior major.
All four of our outrights have major finishes of 2nd place or better in their career, so we at least have that box checked!
We are going four wide, with Rory leading the way at +850 and three more longer shots in the mix too.
Rory McIlroy $7.59 +850
Before we get into why we are betting Rory, let's just go through how we bet him this week. I am very transparent about what I get up to on here and for majors, I try win $1,000 on outrights, which is significantly more than the $300 I try return at other tournaments. As a result, I had to lay over $100 on a Rory outright which I did in the following ways.
- $30 at Bet 365 with their 30% boost
- $25 at Bet Rivers with their "Top 10 Insurance" which returns the $25 in free bets if it loses but Rory finishes top 10.
- $20 at BetMGM which returns $20 in bonus bets if the bet loses.
- The rest can be bet at whatever book you can find the best number at.
It has been raining cats and dogs in Scotland this "summer" and as a result, the links golf courses are not playing hard and crispy, but a little more soggy and softer than we are accustomed to. Rory has been historically strong on courses with easier scoring conditions, which is our first reason for going to Rors at a relatively short number this week. Now, the wind? That is going to create some more difficult conditions for everyone, but at least we have that receptive turf for Rory's nukes to "land like a butterfly with sore feet", to quote Mark Immelman.
Rory checks off the 2nd-place or better in majors quite significantly, with four runner-up finishes in the last seven years of major golf, which matches his total number of major wins that he accumulated almost 11 years ago. So, depending on how you want to look at it, the lack of recent major wins can seem damning to his chances, but what it screams to me is that he has been one person away from winning four majors recently. If that "one" person stumbles this year and Rory puffs his chest out and owns this tournament, we are in for a treat!
From an Open Championship perspective, McIlroy has finished inside the top-6 in five Open Championships since they last played at Royal Troon in 2016, seven Opens ago. To rephrase that, McIlroy has finished top-6 in 5 of his last 7 pursuits of the Claret Jug. That is phenomenal consistency at a very volatile event which, in case you haven't realized from my intro, can be heavily impacted by weather.
Outside of Open Championship form, McIlroy has eight major top-10 finishes since 2022, with a 12th, 22nd and missed cut making up the remaining results. He is like that awkward guy at the company Christmas party who hangs around the conversation but never quite contributes enough to the conversation to warrant him being there. Since his win at Wells Fargo in May, McIlroy has finishes of T12, T4, T15, 2nd, and T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open. We have Open Championship form, major form and recent form checking ALL the boxes here, making that +850 seem a little longer than it appears on the surface.
We haven't really spoken about how Rory Oppenheimer suits this course specifically, but at Royal Troon, avoiding fairway bunkers is paramount. McIlroy ranks 2nd in the field in driving distance over the last six months (Bryson #1), while also gaining on the field in driving accuracy. Only Jon Rahm drives the ball more accurately than Rory of those inside the top-15 in driving distance this week. In fact, Rory has gained +5.2% on the field in driving accuracy over the last 20 rounds, ranking 30th in the field. His driver is going to be an atomic weapon this week, carrying the majority of the fairway bunkers that most will have others either navigate through or layup short of.
Finally, at the US Open, McIlroy arguably hit rock bottom, missing two short putts in the final three holes to lose to DeChambeau by one shot. He visited the Bud Light pit of misery and STILL finished runner up! Dilly Dilly! It can only go up from here and with the Scottish crowd likely supporting him whole heartedly, the opportunity to win his 5th major could never be better for Rory McIlroy.
Tom Kim $1.30 +5000
We will keep the rest of these write ups shorter than Rory's but at such a short number we felt it was necessary to overkill the analysis there. Tom Kim's best rankings in the last 20 rounds of golf are his approach play (11th) and his driving (13th) which makes him a top-10 ball striker entering a week where that will be paramount.
At the US Open he was having an absolute sizzler with his irons in R2 gaining +2 and R3 going scorched earth with +4.8 strokes gained on approach. It fell apart on Sunday unfortunately, but at 50-1, we can afford to take a gamble that his iron play continues to show up through the entire duration of the tournament this time. By the way, is his best major finish and the necessary runner up finish that allows him on our card came at the Open last year.
Kim followed up his Pinehurst performance with another 2nd at the Travelers coming at the hands of the World No. 1, losing to Scottie Scheffler in a playoff after almost holing out his approach shot on the 72nd hole for a walk off win. He landed up making the clutch 10-footer for birdie which forced the playoff. So, we know the three-time winner at the age of 22 has what it takes when he needs to close out a tournament. I do think that the Open Championship is the first major Kim wins, so why not this week?
Wyndham Clark $0.81 +8000 (now +6600)
The reason I have had reservations about making bets early in the week is because the weather on Monday seemed less windy, which resulted in an investment in Wyndy. Clark has a US Open win to his name and after a 63 on Sunday at the Scottish Open, sneaking him into a tie for 10th, we felt like he started finding his groove on the Links again, with finishes of T10, T25 and T16 at the Scottish, we are waiting for that to translate to better results than the T76 and T33 at the pair of Opens he has played. His driver can be a massive weapon at times, not far behind Rory in the distance department, but lacking a little in accuracy.
With Troon being a tactical, thinkers golf course, we believe that Clark can replicate the top-3 results he had at the Players and RBC Heritage this year. There is a bit of regret on this bet after the weather got worse, but we are committed and hopefully Clark is too after two top-10 finishes in his last two most recent starts with his putter and irons starting to show some form just in time to win his second major and first Open Championship.
Will Zalatoris $0.30 +22000
This is a total number grab at 220-1, as Will Zalatoris has been rather putrid lately. However, Brooks Lite has three runner-up finishes in his major career and seems to turn it on when the pressure piles up. His hip popped at the Rocket Mortgage and so did his odds, skyrocketing into the 200s. If some cortisone injections and good old fashioned grit can get Will to four days of health, our guy might just show up and shock the world at a number that is basically a free square. The chance he withdraws is probably better than him winning, but at 220-1, that is a risk we are willing to take.
Placings ($85)
This week's placements.
The reasons we like them.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
3-ball picks for the parlay and round robin ($1 on the 4-legger and $1 on each of the four combinations of 3-leggers).
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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