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Andrew Ball identifies fantasy football running back sleepers and undervalued picks for 2024. These RBs could provide value to your fantasy team for a low cost.
The word "sleeper" is tossed around often in the fantasy football community. So much so that players sometimes lose the sleeper label by the time many leagues conduct their drafts.
Fantasy managers are always looking for the next sleeper running back in drafts, especially those who opt to dive headfirst into a "Zero RB" draft strategy.
These players own an average draft position in the upper single digits or higher. Injuries aside, these running backs have a path toward meaningful touches this season.
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Zack Moss and Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon is vacating 309 touches and 1,410 total yards in Cincinnati. For a high-powered offense led by Joe Burrow, those are very valuable opportunities up for grabs.
Zack Moss was brought over from Indianapolis after career-best marks in carries (183), rushing yards (794), catches (27), and total touchdowns (seven). Most of that production came as Jonathan Taylor dealt with a myriad of injuries. Through eight weeks in 2023, Moss was the RB4 in PPR formats. Like Taylor, Moss also didn’t suit up in Week 1.
Because of that outburst, it's easy to forget that Moss was cast aside by his original team, the Buffalo Bills, after failing to make a splash and overtake Devin Singletary as the lead runner. Once in Indianapolis, he had to wait until Taylor was inactive to receive any meaningful touches. He's an average runner and a below-average receiver. The situation had to be perfect for Moss to rack up yardage and subsequent fantasy points.
Moss tallied 4.3 yards per carry in 2023, matching his career average. That's better than Mixon's career average and his figure in 2023. The Indianapolis offensive line was significantly better than Cincinnati's, which also lost tackle Jonah Williams in the offseason. On the other hand, as long as Burrow is healthy, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be the focus of the offense, not the running game. Moss ran better out of shotgun formations and the Bengals dialed up a run play the second most from shotgun in 11 personnel.
Chase Brown is all about speed. He clocked in over 22 miles per hour in Week 14, a speed only bested by DK Metcalf in 2023. He didn't run particularly well. On his admittedly small sample size of 44 carries, Brown registered a 34.1% success rate during his rookie season. Conversely, on his once again admittedly small sample size in the receiving game, he dominated running backs in yards (4.46) and targets per route run (42.9%). Brown is reportedly getting the most reps with the first-team offense in training camp.
Just a reminder that Chase Brown is REALLY FAST ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/63KJ4cBnz7— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) April 7, 2024
You'll find fantasy analysts split on which Cincinnati back they prefer. (I'm privy to Brown myself but can't deny the potential value of Moss as well.) Depending on your belief of how the backfield touches will be split, both running backs can be viewed as undervalued. If Moss takes the bulk of Mixon's vacated touches and nears double-digit rushing touchdowns like Mixon, then he'll beat his 95th overall ADP and be a staple in non-PPR starting lineups. A 50-target season would put Brown on the PPR radar, thus beating his triple-digit ADP.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
Jaleel McLaughlin is a pass-catching running back in an ambiguous backfield with a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) who attempted short-area passes at a 69-percent clip during his final season at Oregon.
The popular belief is that Samaje Perine will be a training camp casualty. He has one year remaining on his contract and his best skill, receiving, can be done by McLaughlin and presumptive starter, Javonte Williams. The Broncos also brought in two rookie running backs, including fifth-round pick Audric Estime.
If that scenario comes true, Williams should provide more of a do-it-all style, McLaughlin a change-of-pace and receiving style, with Estime filling in the gaps and potentially seeing short-yardage touches.
Bo Nix finds Jaleel McLaughlin to set up the @Broncos in scoring position!
📺: #DENvsIND on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/r87EoxTrFq— NFL (@NFL) August 11, 2024
That's not to say McLaughlin can't effectively run the ball. He is college football's all-time leading rusher and averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per touch (10th in the league) during his rookie year in the pros. Efficiency is essential for McLaughlin because he doesn't have the size and pass-protection chops to be a workhorse running back.
Sean Payton's teams are almost always in the league's top half in run rate, even with experienced quarterbacks. If McLaughlin is given the opportunities taken by Perine last season, he's an insurance running back with a high-PPR floor. If he outplays Williams and commands more touches out of the Denver backfield, he's a value selection. The primary concern is the state of the Broncos offense, which could be one of the bottom-dwellers in the scoring department.
Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots
The New England Patriots added Antonio Gibson as the replacement for Ezekiel Elliott. It sounds silly, given that the two backs hardly profile as the same type of runner. But the new Patriot was a more efficient runner than his predecessor.
It was, however, a limited sample size. Gibson saw career-low marks in carries (65) and rushing yards (265) last season as a member of the Washington Commanders. Still, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 0.33 missed tackles forced per touch (tied for third among running backs). His rushing production is often overlooked because of his backstory as a collegiate wide receiver.
The Patriots did not surround their new starting quarterback (Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye) with a wealth of wide receiver talent. In no particular order, Kendrick Bourne (off an ACL tear), second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk, fourth-round pick Javon Baker, and second-year wideout Demario Douglas are the leaders of the wide receiver room. Gibson could get plenty of looks in the passing game if the quarterback can't find an open receiver as the pocket collapses. Last season, Gibson finished seventh among running backs in routes run (313) and averaged 5.8 yards per touch.
The RB Antonio Gibson looking more like a WR! That one goes for 41 yards 🙌 @AntonioGibson14#CHIvsWAS on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/YCeYJnyJmB pic.twitter.com/X2AdBHuobX— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2023
Don't get it wrong, Rhamondre Stevenson is still atop the depth chart. He was on the field for over 65% of the team's snaps in his healthy games before an ankle injury ended his campaign early. Now healthy, Stevenson will lead the charge on first and second downs, while Gibson enters the game on third-and-passing situations. Gibson may not get drafted in non-PPR formats but there's real value for a running back being selected deep into drafts in PPR leagues.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, will boast one of the best offenses in football again (assuming Lamb and Dallas resolve their contract dispute). Running lanes will be open with the defensive focus on Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and tight end Jake Ferguson.
Does Ezekiel Elliott have enough juice to take advantage of said running lanes? In New England last season, Elliott averaged 3.5 yards per carry (topping four YPC once in his starts) and logged one breakaway run. There was a reason that Dallas cut ties with its former Pro Bowler once before and he was only brought back out of necessity.
Rico Dowdle is not an elite running back talent but the argument can be made that he's currently more talented than his soon-to-be 29-year-old counterpart. Dowdle reached 4.8 yards per touch on his 106 opportunities last season and spelled the (also inefficient) Tony Pollard.
Maybe the Cowboys won't have to worry about their lack of an efficient running game with Lamb dominating defenses down the field. The defense is strong enough to win games on its own, which also leads to a large number of plays per game for the 'Boys (second in the league in 2023).
That helped elevate Pollard to over 1,000 rushing yards on a career-worst 3.99 yards per carry. He also only trailed Christian McCaffrey in carries inside the 20. Whether efficient or not, there will be ample opportunities for Dallas running backs.
Dowdle is currently being drafted 131st overall, according to Yahoo! ADP. That's the 10th round, aka fantastic value for a coaching staff claiming a committee is on the way.
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