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Kev Mahserejian analyzes risers and fallers for Week 9 of the fantasy baseball season. Which known studs should break out of their slump and which newcomers on the scene will stick?
There is nothing quite like the ebbs and flows of fantasy baseball. Every at-bat of every game is the final straw based on that moment whereas in reality, players will have hundreds more across the next dozen weeks to neutralize whatever outcome came about.
Across the past month, plenty of recently unknown players have thrived in fantasy baseball while many perennial All-Stars have disappointed. Below, I discuss which known commodities should work their way back to fantasy stardom and which flavor of the month may stick.
For all complaints, contact Kev Mahserejian on X (@RotoSurgeon). Without further ado, here are your Risers and Fallers for Week 9 of the fantasy baseball season!
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Fantasy Baseball Risers
Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers
46% Rostered on Yahoo
The former Baltimore Orioles infielder is enjoying his fair share of playing time lately. Through 15 games in May, Ortiz has four HRs, nine runs, and seven RBI while batting just over .300. Ortiz has nearly as many walks (18) as strikeouts (22) this season and is hitting toward the top of Milwaukee's talented order in some games.
Joey Ortiz has been on fire over his last nine games...
33 PA, .367/.424/.867, 3 2B, 4 HR#ThisIsMyCrewpic.twitter.com/O3dGpnhmnV
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) May 18, 2024
The absence of Rhys Hoskins (hamstring) has played into Ortiz's recent boost in plate appearances, but even when Hoskins returns, Ortiz should stick in the lineup. He is due for some regression, though, as his expected slugging percentage is nearly .100 higher than his actual slugging percentage. Nevertheless, Ortiz is a talented fielder, too, which should help him retain playing time if his hot streak eventually cools down.
Verdict: Roster in all formats.
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
20% Rostered on Yahoo
The Cardinals' carousel of corner outfielders has spun around from carrying Jordan Walker to Alec Burleson. Burleson is hitting .300 with five HRs and two SBs this season. His average roughly matches his .294 expected number while slugging does, too. While Burleson's hit above average against LHP this season and started a few recent games versus them, he could render himself to a platoon upon Walker's impending return. Luckily, if Burleson continues to perform as he has, a near-everyday role should stick as St. Louis cannot afford to bench productive hitters.
Burleson comps well to a fellow Alec in the NL (Bohm) as a high-average 18-20 HR hitter in the middle of an order. This type of bat is not a "league winner" but one valuable in fantasy nonetheless.
Verdict: Roster in all 12+ team leagues with AVG instead of OBP.
David Fry, Cleveland Guardians
23% Rostered on Yahoo
This 28-year-old backstop is taking the league by storm in recent weeks. David Fry is doing everything Bo Naylor managers wanted from a Guardians catcher. With five HRs, three SBs, and an AVG over .300 on the season, Fry is producing like a top-end fantasy asset at his position. Even on days Fry is not catching, the Guardians will play him at 1B, 3B, and OF. He is like a better version of early career Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Great googly moogly David Fry pic.twitter.com/M4JsDqvk3p
— Estevan Florial Enjoyer (@MylesStrawRBW) May 22, 2024
Unfortunately, regression is imminent as his .414 BABIP and .588 SLG (.405 xSLG) are unsustainable. However, with a 17.4% walk rate, he should sustain value in fantasy, especially if the Guardians continue batting him toward the top of their order.
Verdict: Fry should be rostered across all OBP formats while worth a spot in 12+ team AVG leagues.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
80% Rostered on Yahoo
The former top-five prospect is struggling across his first full MLB season. Carter cannot replicate his incredible stretch between his late-season call-up and playoff run in 2023. There were signs of overperformance by Carter via his 32% strikeout rate and .412 BABIP but this current iteration is a shell of the power hitter that helped the Rangers to a World Series title.
Carter is slashing .201./.289/.388 with no signs of improvement. His expected average is slightly higher than actual performance while his expected slugging is much lower. Recently, Carter was sidelined with a back issue and has played intermittently since as the Rangers faced a myriad of lefties. Nevertheless, that is an additional issue as Carter is not playing vs. LHP given his struggles stemming from the minor leagues onward.
Verdict: Drop in all leagues 12-team and shallower. Carter is just a platoon player and no better than Joc Pederson right now.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
95% Rostered on Yahoo
Spencer Steer has struggled over the past few weeks with no end in sight. After a white-hot start to the season as one of 2024's top fantasy hitters, Steer's cooled down to borderline unrosterable. These last two weeks alone, Steer's produced just three runs, eight RBI, and two steals while batting .167. Over the past month, he has hit just one HR with an average below .160.
Spencer Steer, who has dealt with an ankle injury and isn’t in the lineup today, said his ankle is good and getting better. He expects to be available off the bench.
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) May 21, 2024
Is his ankle injury what may be causing this slump? Who knows. Luckily, the season-long stat line remains solid for those who drafted Steer. Four HRs, 11 SB, 21 runs, and 31 RBI make a .224 AVG palatable. Also, Steer is walking 12.4% of the time while striking out just 17.5%. With plate discipline this good and a home park even better (for hitters), additional rope should be given to Steer as he is still playing regularly and batting in the top half for Cincinnati.
Verdict: Do not cut outside of extremely shallow leagues.
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
94% Rostered on Yahoo
No one fears hearing those Citi Field trumpets more than Mets fans and Edwin Diaz's managers this season. After tearing his ACL in the World Baseball Classic last year, Diaz rehabbed to prepare for the 2024 season and looked great early on. That has not been the case as his ERA on the season has ballooned to 5.50 with a pedestrian 1.22 WHIP. Diaz accrued four saves throughout the season's first two weeks but has just one since April 16.
Oh my goodness. Josh Bell hits a three-run homer to dead centerfield off of Edwin Diaz. He blows a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth and it’s 9-9.
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) May 18, 2024
The Mets have a deep bullpen thanks to their savvy acquisitions of Reed Garrett and Jorge Lopez while Adam Ottavino remains a solid staple of the bullpen with closing experience throughout his career. Nonetheless, with a 2.40 SIERA and 2.89 xFIP, Diaz is just unlucky and needs patience like David Bednar earlier this season.
Verdict: HOLD.
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