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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, March 29. Friday’s 12-game slate marks the start of the end. The Eastern Conference playoff picture is all but set, barring a miraculous run from the Brooklyn Nets, while most of the focus regarding the Western Conference rests on Golden State and Houston.
The Warriors need to keep winning with the Rockets hot on their tails after winning 12 of their last 13 games. Assuming the Lakers and Kings squeak out a few more wins down the final stretch, that final spot will come down to Golden State finishing strong or Houston peaking at just the right time.
The top offered prop for today is Draymond Green’s under, and that’s hard not to like. He burned us Wednesday by getting ejected four minutes into the game, and usually, when it rains, it pours. The Hornets are already eliminated and this is an easy win for Golden State. Playing in Stephen Curry’s hometown only adds to the narrative, but there’s no telling how Green acts on the court once he gets there. Not that he’ll get ejected again, but he absolutely could, and it wouldn’t be anything new.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, March 29
Terance Mann OVER 6.5
The Clippers have found a groove, and it revolves around team scoring. Outside of those back-to-back games versus the 76ers and Pacers, Terance Mann has hit this over in every game he’s played since March 6. This is the first time the Clippers will face this revamped Jamahl Mosley-led Orlando Magic team, but that doesn’t change the spacing Los Angeles has in their starting core. As daunting as this Magic defense is, the Clippers offense poses a similar threat.
Mann is going to be open on the wing and he’s most likely going to be guarding Jalen Suggs. Not that Suggs isn’t a threat himself, but his offense can be very stagnant in terms of what he does. Normally, this matchup would cancel each other out, but assuming Suggs takes on a more important defensive role, that’s going to leave Gary Harris isolated guarding Mann, an athletic wing. The matchup is there; Mann just has to deliver.
Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Knicks versus Spurs looks way more fun than it’s likely to be. We’ve seen this slow-burn type of matchup before, and stats tend to fall by the wayside. Hitting an over in a game like this based on how the first one turned out might seem outlandish, but that was before the Spurs were eliminated from the playoffs, and Mitchell Robinson was still playing 30 minutes a night. Things have changed since then, and Hartenstein can’t be taken lightly as a paint threat on either side of the ball.
Whichever direction feels better, both are quality bets. Going with rebounds and assists offers some security, but adding in points to that combination bet increases the payout. The prop-timizer also favors his assist prop at 2.5, so don’t be afraid to use Hartenstein as a foundational parlay piece tonight. His overs are fairly low for his capability, and this is a matchup where he should get a ton of usage.
Tre Mann OVER 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
It’s always tough not going with points on a player that should have a good game, only because a singular NBA game can be so unpredictable in that aspect. Sometimes teammates don’t hit shots and steal rebounds which is heartbreaking to watch. There’s nothing you can do but learn and try to make sure you hedge your bets better next time. In this situation, we know Tre Mann is going to cut through this Warriors defense with ease, but will his teammates hold up their end of the bargain?
Since the Hornets have all scorers and no team-first passers, Mann has carved himself a nice role in the offense by being one of two assist-driven teammates. Vasilije Micic would be the other, but his inconsistencies don’t make him reliable against the top defenses. For the last six games, Mann has either led or been second on the team in assists, all while grabbing multiple rebounds on most occasions. It’s understandable why the 6’3 Mann didn’t get many rebounds versus Cleveland, but Golden State is undersized and the perfect matchup for the cutting playmaker.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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