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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 20. Not my specific strong suit, but in case you need to read it again, Victor Wembanyama should be the first overall pick in any fantasy draft. The things he is doing as a rookie already surpasses any rookie’s accomplishment over the past two decades and it’s laughable that we even teased the idea of comparing him with Chet Holmgren. We can now clearly see just how different the two are, and not to take anything away from Holmgren, but one’s just a very good player, while the other’s trajectory is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.
As we enter the brunt of the ‘silly season,’ also known as the small stretch between March and April where nothing in the NBA makes sense, it’s important to take precautions when betting. Players will rest for seemingly no reason, while others might not even step on the court in the second half of close games. Wins don’t mean nearly as much with so little at stake, and the only teams still fighting for position are teams that would be fighting for a playoff spot anyway. Teams like the Thunder, Nuggets, Celtics, and Bucks are going to be unpredictable with their lineups and we can only assume their front offices support that.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Wednesday's eight-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Wednesday, March 20
Domantas Sabonis OVER 23.5 Rebounds + Assists
No matter how you break it down, the Raptors are bad. They sacrifice a ton of stats to opposing players, and Domantas Sabonis has been eating in-the-box scores lately. Normally, a healthy Jakob Poeltl is able to somewhat limit Sabonis, but instead, Toronto’s only option is what Kelly Olynyk and Jontay Porter have to offer. Based on the matchup, this is setting up for Sabonis to feast once again on a bottom-five defense.
He hasn’t posted a 20-rebound game since early-March, but facing a dilapidated frontcourt is an ideal matchup. Nothing against Olynyk and Porter, but they need to make life tough for Sabonis on both ends of the court if they want to keep him from finding a groove early. Something tells me there’s nothing Toronto will be able to do about their paint-presence versus one of, if not the league’s top rebounder.
Aaron Nesmith OVER 1.5 Assists
When Tyrese Haliburton missed time with an injury, Aaron Nesmith looked like he was the one stepping up to take over point guard duties. He showed the ability to play, make, score, and defend at the NBA level, only for Haliburton’s early return to end that aspect of Nesmith’s point guard career. Although short-lived, it’s important to note that while Nesmith’s assists are inconsistent, the ability is there, and most of the time, it’s not his fault his assist totals are so low. Luckily for us, Indiana is playing the Pistons, and that means everyone will be shooting tonight.
Unfortunately, as long as Haliburton is playing, chances are the possessions start and finish with him. Nesmith has found a role as a wing-shooter that focuses on defense, and it’s shaping him into one of the more underrated players in the league. The Pistons are where they’re at for a reason, and their defense is still their biggest weakness. Even if Nesmith runs into some resistance inside or trouble shooting, he loves collapsing defenses and dishing out to the wing, something the Pistons defense is known to struggle with.
Kelly Olynyk OVER 5.5 Assists
Kelly Olynyk usually needs a big game to hit an over like this, and the Kings haven’t been blown out since late February. The Raptors will already be fighting an uphill battle with the roster they currently have available, not to mention the "core three" of Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, and Sabonis are playing at a very high level. Not only does Olynyk need his teammates to be hitting shots, but he’ll need this game to remain close to hitting an over he’s only hit four times in two months.
He naturally fills the stat sheet when he’s having a good game, but he literally only hits this over when he has one of those outlandishly good games. He’s been a consistent option for offense, but the Raptors don’t have enough weapons to make this is a solid matchup. The last two times Olynyk hit this over came against two of the league’s worst defenses, the Pistons, and Trail Blazers.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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