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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 13. If Anthony Edwards took up most of the introductory paragraph for his effort on the block last Thursday, Andre Jackson Jr. deserves an entire page for his put-back attempt last night. Not often do opposing benches react to their teammates getting dunked on, but can we really blame Kevin Huerter and De’Aaron Fox? Jackson Jr. looked like he was doing a flying chin-up above the rim. Sacramento got the last laugh with a win, but basketball is about entertainment, and everyone watching witnessed an athletic feat they will likely never see again.
Wednesday is host to a nine-game slate and the youthful talent in Hawks-Trail Blazers and the Grizzlies-Hornets matchups have been building momentum even this late in the NBA season. These months are the most unpredictable because some of the better players are readying their bodies for playoffs. The effort will be inconsistent, so make sure you are focusing on teams needing wins and high-usage players in impactful situations.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Wednesday's nine-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Wednesday, March 13
D'Angelo Russell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made OR 16.5 Points
The Prop-timizer’s top ranked bet is D’Angelo Russell to hit three three-pointers. By all means, take that bet wherever it is offered. The last time Russell failed to hit at least two threes’ in a game was during his 17-assist performance against Utah so he gets a pass there. It’s obvious his importance to the offense, especially when both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are deferring to his shooting first and foremost. The big concern here is just whether or not Russell plays the heavy-passing point guard role or trusts his shooting.
Facing a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo and then turning around the next night to play James, Davis, and D’Angelo Russell will take a toll on any defense. Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes still played over 30 minutes each despite the blowout versus Milwaukee, so already, the more important Kings will be playing on somewhat tired legs. Assuming James continues down this path of deference, Russell specifically is going to continue to see upwards of 20+ shots a game.
Donovan Mitchell OVER 4.5 Assists
The first game back from an injury is always concerning. Donovan Mitchell has missed the last seven games with a bone bruise and the Cavaliers have lost four of those seven games. The losses and wins shouldn’t ultimately matter, but the Eastern Conference playoff picture is surprisingly an extremely tight race. By some miracle, the Chicago Bulls are only five games behind Cleveland, regardless of how different their respective seasons have gone. So even though the Cavaliers may feel like they're one of the best teams in the conference, they can’t lay off the gas whatsoever.
The Pelicans are an extremely beatable team and the Cavaliers frontcourt defense matches up well with their attack style anchoring around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Assuming Mitchell plays full minutes, not only is five assists extremely obtainable, his natural playmaking abilities make it so even when he does find his groove scoring, it won’t pull from his teammates. His ability to drive so successfully makes it easy for assists to fall right into this lap, especially against lesser-mobile big men like Jonas Valanciunas.
Domantas Sabonis OVER 21.5 Rebounds + Assists
Even though the Kings played last night, it wasn’t a particularly close game, so playing on the second night of a back-to-back isn’t entirely concerning. Playing slightly over 30 minutes shouldn’t be enough to entirely fatigue starters like Domantas Sabonis or Fox, but it’s important to at least have the information heading into betting. Although it might seem like more pointless information, in his career, Domantas Sabonis is 9-0 against Davis. However, the 9-0 record is the only stat that directly favors Sabonis, but we are still going to make it work in our favor.
Lately, Sabonis has hit this over in 11 out of his last 15 games with two of the times he failed coming in matchups versus the reigning champions Denver Nuggets. Playing Nikola Jokic is one of the few understandable reasons why a player might fail to reach an over, but here is where things get interesting. When facing Davis, Sabonis averages 12.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game, meaning his line is more likely to drop even lower to accommodate algorithms as we get closer to game time. As long as the line stays, Sabonis grabbed 20 rebounds last time he lined up with Davis, and if anything, that story should stay the same.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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