Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford, David Njoku Fantasy Outlooks - Down But Not Out in the Post-Deshaun Watson Era?

November 19, 2023

Tony breaks down the production of fantasy football players on the Cleveland Browns and the team's season outlook with Deshaun Watson out for the season.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off one of their biggest regular-season wins in the 21st century after completing a 15-point second-half comeback on the road against divisional rival Baltimore. They sit at 6-3 after the win and are just half a game out of first place in the AFC North, but the victory came with a price.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a high ankle sprain in the game but also sustained a displaced fracture to the glenoid in his throwing shoulder. He will undergo surgery and miss the rest of the season.

How does this impact the Browns' players for fantasy football? Can they still make the playoffs? Let's take a look.

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Outlook Without Deshaun Watson

The Cleveland Browns have dealt with a multitude of injuries on offense that most teams would have zero chance of overcoming. After losing All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin in Week 1 to a torn ACL and MCL, injuries piled on shortly after as they lost perhaps the best running back in the NFL, Nick Chubb, to a torn ACL and MCL as well.

Deshaun Watson then went down in Week 3 with a strained rotator cuff on his throwing shoulder, sidelining him for over a month due to its impact on his throwing. Unfortunately, his season is now over after requiring surgery for a completely different injury to his throwing shoulder in the win over the Ravens in Week 10.

Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start Week 11 at home against the Steelers, and his only start in his career came back in Week 4 when Watson was ruled out on short notice. The UCLA product had to fill in without a full week of preparation and face one of the league's best defenses, and the entire team looked unprepared that week. With his tremendous upside in the run game, DTR has the potential to be a solid fill-in in deeper leagues and two-quarterback formats because of how dynamic he is as a runner.

Jerome Ford has filled in pretty nicely for Chubb, as he has posted six double-digit PPR fantasy outputs in eight games without Chubb. The Browns are likely to lean even more on the running attack without Watson, and they have been very successful in recent history on the ground. If they can return standout rookie tackle Dawand Jones (knee) to the mix shortly and former first-round pick Jedrick Wills in a few weeks, they will still have one of the better offensive lines in football despite injuries.

Along with Ford having value as the workhorse of this backfield, veteran Kareem Hunt has some appeal thanks to his goal-line work. The 28-year-old has scored a touchdown in five straight games and has seen at least 10 touches in all of those outings. With Watson out, the likely increased emphasis on the run game should provide Hunt with value in fantasy, as long as they can manage to put together scoring drives.

Star receiver Amari Cooper has been the most consistent option in the passing game, as he has 80 or more yards in six of the team's nine games this season. Even in the three games with PJ Walker at quarterback, Cooper posted eight targets in all, with two games of 80 or more yards. Although his worst game of the year came with DTR at quarterback, the nature of that game makes it difficult to get a read on how he will stack up with the rookie at quarterback. The team has placed an emphasis on keeping him involved, but his ceiling undoubtedly has lowered.

Tight end David Njoku has really started putting good performances together, posting double-digit PPR points in five of the last six games. In the lone game with DTR, Njoku led the team in targets with seven and finished with six catches for 46 yards. His ability to make plays in space was on full display against the Ravens in Week 10, and the Browns are likely going to rely on finding ways to get him involved to make the rookie's life easier.

Can The Browns Make The Playoffs In 2023?

While Deshaun Watson was finally hitting his stride with three consecutive above-average performances in his last three full games, the Browns have been winning games this year while overcoming poor quarterback play in the other six games. Despite PJ Walker's advanced metrics ranking him below every other quarterback to start games this season, the Browns managed to go 2-1 with him and were a ball bouncing the right way in Seattle from being 3-0.

The defense is on a historic pace right now. They rank number one in EPA/play and success rate by a significant margin. These amazing metrics come despite facing two games against the Ravens, a matchup with the 49ers, and meetings with solid Colts and Seahawks teams. This defense has shown they can slow anybody down, and they've only seen any struggles on the occasional big play.

Their turnover luck has started to change as well, with two or more takeaways in each of the last four games after having just four total in their first five games.

Most importantly, the hardest part of their schedule is behind them. The Browns have the 19th-hardest schedule left this season, while divisional rivals Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh have the first, fifth, and 17th-hardest schedules left, respectively. The Bills also have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule, and they could be a team fighting with Cleveland for a wild card spot.

While the most challenging remaining games include matchups against Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati, they also have games against the Broncos, Rams, Bears, and Jets.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski is known for getting the most out of the quarterback position, elevating the play of Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, and others to the best stretches of their career. Dorian Thompson-Robinson showed plenty of flashes as to why the team traded Joshua Dobbs in the preseason, and if he can perform at an average level, this team can definitely find themselves in the postseason.

Implications For 2023 And Beyond

The Super Bowl ceiling of this team is likely out of the picture, barring a complete domination from their defense or a Brock Purdy-like ascension from Thompson-Robinson. However, the remaining schedule, along with this elite defense, makes it very possible that they find a way into the playoffs. The contract of Watson has been a talking point, as most media leads you to believe that the Browns needed to win this season because of Watson's increasing cap number as the years go on.

However, the Browns are outspending the next closest team by around $50 million in cash. They are spending over $150 million more than the league average, and general manager Andrew Berry is terrific at managing their cap space. The Browns continue to spread cap hits out over a long period of time in exchange for more cash spending up front, resulting in a significant increase in cap space.

With the salary cap continuing to increase, this model for the Browns is very sustainable as long as ownership continues to spend above the league average. Because the Browns manage the cap well, drafted good talent recently, and have ownership that's willing to spend, they will continue to restructure their top earners every season and create cap space that doesn't appear to be there at the moment.

Although Watson's cap number will continue to rise to over $60 million in a season as of now, the Browns will restructure players and continue to be able to retain and add talent despite a massive contract to their quarterback. While most media outlets will lead you to believe this season was an all-in year for the Browns because of the future cap hits of Watson, they will be fine and have plenty of flexibility with most of this team under contract for the near future.

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