Week 12 Preview: Picks and Predictions for Washington, Texas, Michigan and more…

November 15, 2023

Week 12 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 11, including betting lines and recommendations.

As normally happens in the penultimate week of the regular season, the SEC and ACC have decided to schedule ham sandwiches as opponents. I love a good ham sandwich as much as the next person, But not when it takes away from what could be a good game on the football field.

Georgia, who plays its traditional rival Georgia Tech next week, is an exception. But after witnessing how Tennessee has performed of late, do we really think the Vols have anything for the Bulldogs? On the other side of the coin, Alabama will be taking on Chattanooga and Florida State battles it out with the vaunted North Alabama.

This means, at least for one week of the season, the west coast is the best coast. Who would have thought it? Let’s look at a few West Coast games as well as a few more from other areas that might influence the postseason. Unless, of course, Chattanooga can take down Alabama.

Big Games of Week 12

(5) Washington (+2.5) @  (10) Oregon St. (63.5 O/U)

After coming back to defeat Utah 35-28 at home on Saturday, Washington faces another tough challenge as it heads on the road to take on Oregon State. This Beavers team is fresh off a 62-17 win over Stanford.

After winning its first major battle of the week in the courtroom, Oregon State will now look to take down one of the teams that has caused them to be relegated to an also-ran after the 2023 season. The Beavers would love nothing more than to knock the Huskies from the ranks of the unbeaten. Coming into this game as 2.5-point favorites, Las Vegas also knows what Oregon State has in mind.

With one of the best offensive lines in the country, the Beavers will look to take control of the game with their run game against a Washington rush defense which allows 140.7 yards which ranks them No. 52 in the country. For its part, Oregon State ranks No. 20 in rush offense and has amassed 196.9 yards/game on the season. When it comes to explosive plays on the ground, Oregon State’s offense is also much better than the Washington defense it will be taking on.

While the Beavers rank No. 9 at 5.4 yards/carry, the Huskies are ranked No. 88 and allow an average of 4.4 yards/carry. Not only will Oregon State be able to run the ball against Washington, by doing so, it will keep the high-powered offense of the Huskies on the sideline. A place where it cannot do any damage. Especially the pass game which ranks No. 1 at 378.0 yards/game and will be taking on a Beavers squad which ranks No. 71 and allows 229.6 yards.

Michael Pennix, a top-three contender in Heisman balloting, will have to find a way to have another stellar outing after having only two TD in Saturday’s win over Utah. He has the weapons to do so, it will just be incumbent on the Washington defense to give him the needed possessions.

Betting Picks: Washington +2.5, Under 63.5

(2)Michigan (-19.5) @ Maryland (50.5 O/U)

Michigan came out against Penn State and ran the ball down the throat of the Nittany Lions. After passing just 8 times in the game for 70 yards, J.J. McCarthy will find an easier time against a Maryland team that has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks.

This could be a trap game for Michigan following Penn State and coming a week before the big matchup with Ohio State. But the issues surrounding the team and its coach could be a blessing in disguise as it will focus the Wolverines who, like most teams, like to take an issue and make it a rallying call. Even if it is their own doing.

Maryland has nothing for Michigan in this game. Will it score? Maybe. But it will not be competitive. 19.5 seems like a small number. But a number I am happy and willing to take here. The Wolverines might also get this game to the over by themselves. But the total is more of a crap shoot in this game than the spread.

Betting Picks: Michigan -19.5, Over 50.5

(6) Oregon (-23.5) @ Arizona State (53.5 O/U)

Arizona State is down to its third-string QB and coach Kenny Dillingham has made public pleas for any ASU student who can kick to try out and for any big body to also come down.

Arizona beat a struggling UCLA team who, if reports are correct, could be parting ways with Chip Kelly after the USC game on Saturday. Oregon is not UCLA, and the Ducks are playing the best football in the Pac-12 now.

Oregon, who defeated USC 36-27 on Saturday will need to avoid a letdown in this game if it wants to get to the conference title game and a rematch with Washington. There have been horror stories of Oregon heading to the state of Arizona in the past. Including losing to this ASU team 31-28 as 13-point favorites in their last meeting in 2019.

While Justin Herbert was there, so was Mario Cristobal. His gameday management of games and the way he used a talent like Herbert will negate any advantage. Dan Lanning is different. Not only does he have another great college QB in Bo Nix, but he also has a run game and defense to match the passing offense.

Oregon ranks Nol 2 in the nation with 541.0 yards/game on offense. But, unlike most seasons in which it is just the passing game, Oregon ranks No. 15 in 2023 in rush offense with 202.3 yards/game on the ground.

On defense, Oregon has allowed just 309.4 yards while the offense of Arizona State has managed only 323.6 yards and ranks No. 109 in the country.

This game is a complete mismatch and should be a complete domination by the Ducks. Even on the road. But it is still important for Oregon to not look past the Sun Devils and towards its game with rival Oregon State next week. If it does, This will be just another Oregon team that fails to meet expectations after trying to sleepwalk through a game it should easily win.

Betting Picks: Oregon -23.5, Under 53.5

(7) Texas (-7.5) @ Iowa State (-47.5 O/U)

Much like Oregon above, Texas, no matter how good, always finds difficulties when playing against the Cyclones.

After losing 30-7 in 2021 to Iowa State, Texas barely prevailed at home 24-21 in 2022 as 16-point favorites. There are some teams that just have the magic to hold down others. No matter how good the other is. Iowa State has seemingly found this skill against the Longhorns who are looking to wrap up a spot in the Big-12 Championship Game. But Iowa State has come on strong as of late. Something which few people were able to see after the gambling scandal of the off-season and the 10-7 early-season loss to Ohio University. A game that was followed by a Matt Campbell rant toward a fan while heading to the Iowa State bus. Things were not looking good in Ames. But things have turned around mightily as the Cyclones are coming off a 45-13 win over BYU in Provo. While Iowa State is coming off an emphatic win, Texas is coming off a lackluster few weeks of games.

After jumping out to big leads against both Kansas State and TCU on the past two Saturdays, the Longhorns were forced to hold on for their lives and pull out difficult wins. A slip-up in either of those games and the playoff hopes of Texas would be immediately gone.

Although Kansas State is a good team, TCU is not this season. The Horned Frogs should not have been able to make a comeback. Yet they were able to do just that. And now Texas will be without leading rusher Jonathon Brooks who tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

Although freshman C.J. Baxter is talented, is he ready to take the lead role in these important games? If he is, Texas will not skip a beat and should be able to find their way into the conference title game. If he falters, or if Quinn Ewers does not perform up to his abilities, Iowa State is a team that can take advantage of a weakened team in the Longhorns.

Betting Picks: Iowa State +7.5, Under 47.5

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