Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds: The Unluckiest Hitters in Baseball

August 10, 2023

Brenton's hitter risers and fallers for fantasy baseball using a variety of advanced sabermetrics. The unluckiest hitters that should be able to turn it around in fantasy baseball.

The trade deadline is in the review mirror and while the dog days have arrived, as has the stretch run. Playoff races around the league are about to get really hot. The added third Wild Card spot continues to inject intrigue and added entertainment to said playoff races! Be sure to also check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball, including the weekly series by Connelly Doan about Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds.

We've spent much of the season breaking down specific stats such as wOBA, xwOBA, BABIP+, xBA, and more to highlight several names across baseball. In this edition, we are simply going to use a number of advanced metrics to highlight the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season. For the sake of context, we are limiting our player pool to only qualified hitters so we know we are dealing with similar sample sizes.

Let's dive in and check out who should have far better numbers than what the surface data shows us to this point in the 2023 campaign.

Hitter Studs and Duds for Fantasy Baseball

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers

You may have come across the nickname "Torkelbust" on Twitter at some point this season as the 2020 No. 1 overall pick has yet to deliver on his pre-draft status of one of the best bats to come out of college in the last couple of decades.

Torkelson fell on his face during his 2022 rookie season, hitting .203 with just eight homers across 110 games. He was even demoted to Triple-A for a portion of the season. He has taken a step forward in 2023, hitting .223 with 15 homers in a near-identical 111-game sample size. However, the 23-year-old's 91 wRC+ still sits 9% below the league average.

However, it's not hard to tell that the young slugger is still dealing with a good bit of poor luck. The below list is sorted by hard-hit rate, but the separation between Torkelson's additional metrics in regards to batting average, slugging, and wOBA should also be noted.

Before even looking at any stats, have a look at the company Torkelson is keeping in hard-hit rate alone. These are the very best hitters in baseball with superstars and MVP-caliber players throughout.

It appears that the Tigers' first baseman is doing plenty of right at the plate but has yet to see the appropriate results.

Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, San Diego Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr. sports a 115 wRC+ on the season, which grades out to 15% above league average, but the metrics tell us he should be faring much better than he has in the 2023 campaign.

The oft-injured, controversial outfielder has returned to hit .259 with 19 homers, 17 steals, and a .788 OPS across 94 games, a very nice big-league season for the overwhelming majority of hitters in the league. However, we know the 24-year-old is a bonafide superstar who should be producing numbers far better than just 15% above the mean. I mean, let's take a quick peek at Tatis' Baseball Savant page.

What else is there to say? Here is the points percentage difference between some key Statcast metrics for Tatis:

xBA: +.40
xSLG: +71
xwOBA: +.48

The Padres are technically still in the Wild Card race in the senior circuit as they could really use Tatis' positive regression to kick in sooner than later.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

What in the world happened to Vladdy this season? Well, if you look under the hood, nothing really. It's the same ol' Vladdy in 2023. His ranks in some key metrics are as follows:

Hard-hit rate: 8th
Average exit velocity: 7th
xBA: 6th
xSLG: 19th
xwOBA: 9th

I mean, the difference between Guerrero's SLG and xSLG is a whopping 77 points. Now, Guerrero's 12.5% barrel rate slips all the way to 29th. That said, that figure is actually above his 11.4% career mark. It's below his 15.1% mark in 2021 when he launched 48 home runs but he has managed to hit with the best of 'em in his big league career while producing a relatively low barrel rate.

We will conclude Guerrero's case with his Baseball Savant page, which is insane.

Eugenio Suarez, Mariners

Eugenio Suarez has long been a low-average, high-powered bat throughout his major league career but only one of those two areas has remained true in the 2023 season. Suarez is hitting just .229 this season and his .230 xBA is just one tick higher. However, there is a notable difference between his power numbers and his expected power numbers.

For instance, Suarez's xSLG of .448 sits 59 points above his current .389 SLG. Furthermore, his 12.5% barrel rate is tied with Guerrero for 29th among qualified hitters and superior to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Josh Jung, Paul Goldschmidt, and the aforementioned Tatis.

His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, and barrel rate are all in the 65th percentile or better, yet his 102 wRC+ tells us he's been just 2% superior to the league average at the plate.

With a .341 xwOBA that sits above his .311 wOBA, an increase in production from Suarez would greatly help a Mariners club that is red-hot and approaching an AL Wild Card berth. Perhaps that hot stretch is already underway.

Willy Adames, Brewers

Full disclaimer: Willy Adames' 34.8% hard-hit rate sits 120th of 144 qualified hitters. However, the remainder of the data suggests extremely poor luck for the Brewers' shortstop. His healthy 12.5% barrel rate has helped him slug 17 homers in 103 games, but Adames is batting just .201 with a .662 OPS across 443 trips to the plate. As we did with Tatis, let's take a look at the difference between some key metrics in Adames' profile to this point in the season.

xBA: +.35
xSLG: +.57
xwOBA: +.42

Of course, this isn't to say Adames' luck has been robbing him of approaching the upper echelon of offensive leaderboards. However, there's little doubt he's dealt with significant poor luck as his bat has been 21% below the league average, as per his 79 wRC+, despite an xwOBA that sits in the 57th percentile. Again, far from elite, but poor luck is poor luck even if it's been a tough season overall.

Remember, this is a guy whose bat has been well above the league average in each of the last three seasons, so don't be surprised if a hot stretch takes place and helps steer the Brewers to the top spot in the NL Central.

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