RADIO
Week 4 in the NFL brought about a breath of fresh air as the running back position finally came to the forefront of fantasy production. With quarterbacks and receivers taking a large amount of the headlines to begin the year with lofty scoring, last week brought us four running backs to provide fantasy managers with multiple touchdown games. One was an expected name in Austin Ekeler that managers have been biting their nails and hoping to break through. Then you had the unexpected big performances from players like Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and Rashaad Penny. In most instances, these backs were in lineups for fantasy managers, but it hammers home the point that you never know when players can come up big.
Offsetting these big performances in fantasy is the name of the game. Not every manager has the luxury of having a set starting lineup each week without the headaches the game presents to us. In most cases, you have managers overthinking every single decision throughout the week to set the most optimal lineup possible. Anytime you suffer over those final roster decisions for the week, you open yourself up to the possibility of benching the player with the better matchup. That's where the analytics come into play. If you go by simply who has the higher projected total in setting your starters, it's the easy way out. This mode of thinking sets apart the championship contenders from the playoff hopefuls. Championship contenders dig into those small details like WR/CB matchups for the week or defensive fantasy points allowed. Anything to give them an edge on the opponent in hopes of victory.
Relieving the stress of those decisions is what I aim to do each week with this piece. I look for the diamonds in the rough in an attempt to give you an advantage over your competition. Simultaneously, bracing you for what could be disappointing weeks of production from your typical starters. I dive into the numbers to point out these players that I will be wooing and those that will be getting booed.
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Week 5 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms
Zach Wilson - QB, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Making his season debut returning from a preseason knee injury, Zach Wilson posted a QB11 finish in Week 4. Although the ranking for the week looks good, to say Wilson looked good could be a bit of a stretch. Completing just 50% of his passes in the game, we saw plenty of garbage time production in the second half. The performance, although inconsistent, was encouraging enough given the time away from the team.
Now he will look to build on his performance in Week 5 with a divisional matchup against the Dolphins. A secondary that currently ranks near the bottom in points allowed to the position (24.7 FPPG). With the weapons at his disposal and the matchup he will be facing, Wilson could surprise in Week 5 with a second consecutive QB1 finish.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Over the last two weeks, Stevenson has essentially taken over the Patriots' backfield. Averaging 58% of the snaps and 57% of the routes ran, he has become somewhat of a dual threat. Leading the league in evaded tackles (39) it is becoming harder to take Stevenson off the field. Being on the field in Week 5 could prove to be a fruitful endeavor given the advantageous matchup ahead of him.
Stevenson will be facing a Lions defense that was just torched by Rashaad Penny a week ago and is allowing a whopping 28.4 FPPG to opposing running backs. Chances are that both Patriots' backs are worthy of being in lineups this week, but Stevenson is likely to return RB2 value in this game.
Robert Woods - WR, Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
A byproduct of Treylon Burks's injury, Robert Woods is now back on the radar for fantasy managers that need a boost at the receiver position. The usage is beginning to come around with four receptions in each of the last three games. Add in a trip to the endzone in Week 4, and fantasy managers now have someone to consider playing.
Even though the Titans' passing attack ranks 30th in the league in drop-backs per game (29.5), Woods has led the team in targets in each of the last two games. The volume may not be there yet, but someone on this team will need to catch passes as the Titans typically are playing from behind. With a great matchup ahead against a Commanders secondary that is allowing 40.2 FPPG to the position, Woods should be viewed as a WR3 with upside in Week 5.
Logan Thomas - TE, Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans
Staying in the same game, Logan Thomas is a player coming off of two consecutive disappointing weeks. In Week 4, he saw a season-high 72% route participation and a target share of 16%, which are signs of hope moving forward. Now the production needs to catch up and for Thomas to become more efficient. And with Jahan Dotson out for this week's game, he could see more usage coming in his direction.
On top of that, Thomas will be facing a Titans defense that currently ranks near the bottom in points allowed to opposing tight ends (14.7 FPPG). For fantasy managers that stream the position each week, giving Thomas a chance in the lineup is advisable as he could be a fringe TE1 in Week 5.
Week 5 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts
Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
If you watch the Cardinals play each week, you would be shocked to find that Kyler Murray currently ranks as QB6 in FFPG on the season (21.2). The struggles have been evident as he ranks 31st in yards per attempt (5.7) and passing touchdowns (5), but the fact is he is taking advantage of opportunities as the Cardinals are constantly playing from behind, allowing the offense to rank second pass plays per game (44.3).
Playing catchup could again be in the cards for Murray this week as he will be facing off with the red-hot Eagles offense. The downside also is that he faces a stout secondary that ranks as one of the best in the league in points allowed to the position (10.9 FPPG). For most fantasy managers, Murray is locked in as a starter each week, but lowering expectations for his production in this game should be a smart thing to do.
Rashaad Penny - RB, Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
Heading into Week 5 off the heels of his best performance on the season, plenty of fantasy managers are excited about Penny's prospects moving forward. He is far and away the lead back for the Seahawks playing over 60% of the snaps each week (aside from Week 2) and handling over 50% of the rushing attempts and routes run.
he numbers are all coming up spades for Penny at the moment but expect that to change in Week 5. He and the Seahawks will be making a trip to New Orleans to play a Saints defense that only allows 15.7 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Diontae Johnson - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Over the first three games of the season, Johnson was one of the most targeted receivers in the league. In Week 4 things changed in a major way with the Steelers turning the offense over to rookie Kenny Pickett. By the end of the game, Johnson turned in his worst performance on the season seeing just 15% of the targets.
Utilization is the name of his game and if we see the rookie continue to look more toward George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, Johnson will no longer be a must-start each week. Add in a difficult matchup against a Bills secondary allowing just 21.3 FPPG to the position and you suddenly have a receiver that is not considered a bonafide WR2 but merely a low-end WR3.
Dalton Schultz - TE, Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
After missing Week 3 due to his PCL injury, one could argue whether or not Schultz even did return to action a week ago. Although he did play 76% of the snaps and turned in a 14% target share, it resulted in a big goose egg for fantasy managers. A performance like that leaves a bad taste in the mouths of his managers and creates doubt about his potential for Week 5.
Potential that will be limited against a Rams defense that is currently the best in the NFL in points allowed to opposing tight ends (4.0 FPPG). With the terrible matchup and uncertainty about his role in the offense post-injury, Schultz should not be a name to consider a lock to start this week.
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