LIV Golf Chicago Betting Picks - Matt Miller's Betting Strategies and Best LIV Bets

Welcome RotoBallers to my LIV golf betting picks series. The LIV Golf Series will be headed to Rich Harvest Farms in Sugar Grove, IL this week. After Dustin Johnson’s thrilling playoff win in Boston, LIV will look to build on the momentum in this week’s Chicago event. 

This week will be the first time in course history that Rich Harvest Farms hosts a men’s professional golf tournament. The course is owned and was designed by Jerry Rich and is currently the home course for the Northern Illinois Huskies golf team. Rich Harvest Farms has hosted other notable events in the past including the 2009 Solheim Cup, the 2015 and 2021 Arnold Palmer Cup, the 2017 men’s golf championship and the 2015 Western Amateur.

There were some notable performances from the above listed events from players in the field this week. In the 2021 Arnold Palmer Cup, Eugenio Chacarra went 4-0 scoring four points for the international team and David Puig went 3-1 scoring three points for the internationals. In the 2015 Western Amateur Sam Horsfield had a strong performance but was knocked out in the quarterfinals. Bryson Dechambeau was also in the field that week but failed to advance to the round of 16. I won’t put a ton of stock into these performances since none were full stroke play format events, however, I believe it is advantageous to have played the course before.

The course this week will feature bent grass greens and play as a 7408-yard par 72.

LIV Golf Chicago Event and Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Without any prior stroke play events or statistics to go off it becomes more difficult to predict how the course will play this week. What we do know is that driving accuracy and approach play will be crucial to success. Many holes are tree lined and you will need to be in the fairway, or the risk of a big number comes into play. A good example is hole four, “Devil’s Elbow”, which will require a draw into a narrow landing zone. A miss in either direction likely leaves you with a punch out.

The greens are large at Rich Harvest Farms which will require players to be sharp with their iron play if they wish to give themselves good birdie looks. However, this will be more difficult than it sounds in many situations. During the 2009 Solheim Cup, NBC Sports’ Mark Rolfing commented on the large amount of risk reward situations on the course. There are many lagoons located on the course and trouble lurking around the greens which makes this course far more demanding than one would imagine.

Overall, I believe Rich Harvest Farms will be a challenging test and a great viewing experience this week. The course will demand accuracy off the tee, good iron play and the avoidance of big numbers. Players who wish to have a chance on Sunday will need to take advantage of the par 5s.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Chicago

Below are the odds for the event as listed by Bovada. 

• Dustin Johnson+500
• Cameron Smith+550
• Joaquin Niemann+750
• Talor Gooch+1000
• Louis Oosthuizen+1800
• Patrick Reed+1800
• Abraham Ancer+2000
• Bryson DeChambeau+2500
• Paul Casey+2500
• Jason Kokrak+2800
• Matthew Wolff+2800
• Brooks Koepka+3000
• Sergio Garcia+3000
• Anirban Lahiri+3300
• Lee Westwood+3300
• Branden Grace+3500
• Harold Varner III+3500
• Kevin Na+3500
• Carlos Ortiz+4000
• Henrik Stenson+4000
• Charles Howell III+4500
• Marc Leishman+4500
• Sam Horsfield+4500
• Bernd Wiesberger+5500
• Cameron Tringale+5500
• Charl Schwartzel+7000
• Ian Poulter+7000
• Pat Perez+7000
• Matt Jones+8000
• Martin Kaymer+10000
• Eugenio Chacarra+12500
• Laurie Canter+12500
• Peter Uihlein+12500
• Richard Bland+12500
• Sadom Kaewkanjana+12500
• Scott Vincent+15000
• Graeme McDowell+17500
• Phachara Khongwatmai+17500
• Hudson Swafford+20000
• Phil Mickelson+20000
• Sihwan Kim+25000
• Shaun Norris+30000
• Turk Pettit+30000
• Wade Ormsby+30000
• Chase Koepka+40000
• David Puig+75000
• James Piot+100000
• Jediah Morgan+100000

LIV Golf Betting Strategy and Selections - Chicago 

After a few unlikely veteran winners in the first three LIV events, the cream rose to the top in Boston when Dustin Johnson took home the win. As the fields continue to get stronger it may become more difficult for longer shots to compete but until this is proven out, I am going to continue constructing my betting card in a similar way. The four-man card will consist of one name toward the top, two in the mid-tier and one longer shot.

Numbers continue to fluctuate from book to book so I would suggest shopping around for the best available number. My selections are as follows. 

Talor Gooch +1000

I was fortunate enough to find a +1400 on Talor earlier this week but I still think the +1000 is manageable. He’s nearly double the number of DJ and Cam Smith and has been playing some great golf. Gooch finished inside the top-five last week at Wentworth despite being publicly unwelcomed to start the week. The 30-year-old finished 6^th at the LIV Boston event a week prior and was also inside the top ten at the LIV Bedminster event despite a bad first round.

In the course preview I discussed the importance of playing out of the fairway. Gooch ranked first in the field in LIV Boston in fairways hit on the week and followed that up with an above average driving week last week at Wentworth. Gooch has also been exceling with his irons. He was third in GIR at LIV Boston and led the field last week at Wentworth on approach.

Between recent form, the fact that he’s one of the better players in the field this week and him receiving a little extra motivation from some PGA Tour players last week- I love Gooch to bring it home in Chicago this week.

Matthew Wolff +2800

Despite a rough start to the year on the PGA Tour, Matthew Wolff has done nothing but compete since joining LIV. He finished 13th in his last start in Boston, 2nd at Bedminster where he made an exciting Sunday run at the title and 8th in his first start on the LIV Tour in Portland. It’s not a stretch to say that Wolff has been one of the most consistent players in the LIV Golf Series since joining. The +2800 actually feels like great value.

What has changed? His head space. I spoke with Matthew for a little while on the putting green before the final round at Bedminster and he noted how much happier he was since joining LIV. He loves having his down time and he was having fun again out on the golf course. Joking around and laughing before the round, it felt like the Matthew Wolff that everyone fell in love with as an up and comer on the PGA Tour. That same happy Matthew Wolff won the 3M as a rookie and finished top-five in two of the three majors he competed in the following year.

It really feels like all Wolff needed to get his game going was a change in scenery.

Sam Horsfield +4500

I’ve seen Horsfield listed anywhere between +4500 and +6000 this week. The best I could find earlier this week was a +5000 and I bit. Horsfield finished 5th at the inaugural LIV event in London but has been pretty pedestrian in LIV events since. He finished 38th in Boston, 16th in Bedminster and 14h in Portland. There is a small concern that as the fields have gotten stronger, his results have gotten worse.

That said, Horsfield finished T18 last week in a strong field at the BMW PGA Championship and has won multiple times in the last few years on the DP World Tour. I believe that he has the talent to compete and win in this field. I also love that he has some positive experience at this course with his quarterfinal’s appearance in the 2015 Western Am.

Horsfield was 24th OTT last week at Wentworth, 33rd in driving accuracy which will be necessary this week and 27th on approach. If Horsfield plays up to his potential with his ball striking he should find himself back in the mix come Sunday. At this number, I’m willing to take the chance on the ceiling.

Scott Vincent +15000

Scott Vincent hasn't done anything spectacular since Joining LIV. He had a rough showing at Bedminster but finished between 20th-23rd in his other three LIV starts. Vincent has been a killer on the Asian Tour and Japan Tour recently, finishing inside the top-15 in seven of his last nine starts, including two wins. Is his game good enough to stack up to this competition? To be honest, I’m not sure.

At +15000, there’s enough to like and justify the pick. For one, he has shown he has the ability to win. Even if it’s against lesser competition, I like that he’s been in the mix down the stretch of a tournament and hasn’t faltered. I also love him from a motivation standpoint. Vincent isn’t even locked in full time for the LIV Golf Series, he’s currently qualifying through the order of merit on the Asian Tour. A win at one of these events would be life and career changing for Vincent.

Darkhorse To Watch: David Puig +75000

I can’t get there on the outright because I frankly don’t think that Puig is good enough to win this event. That said, if there’s a juicy top ten number available on Puig, I may have to take a shot on it. Puig, as noted above, has great history at this course. He went 3-1 in the 2021 Arnold Palmer Cup scoring three points for the international side.

Puig also announced earlier this week that he is officially turning pro. What does this mean? He can actually make money this week at the LIV Golf event. I doubt there will be anyone more motivated this week than Puig and I don’t think that it’s THAT crazy to think that he rides the momentum on a course he’s familiar with into a top ten finish.

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