Fantasy Baseball Buy-Lows? Unlucky Star Players (Week 18)

July 29, 2026

Joey's fantasy baseball buy-lows, breakouts, trade candidates to target for Week 18 in 2026. These unlucky players are underperforming early for fantasy baseball.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of Buy-Low Candidates for Week 18 of the fantasy baseball season. Each week of the fantasy baseball season, we look at struggling star players who are top buy-low candidates. Last week's list included names like Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez, and Kevin Gausman.

This week's edition will look at four buy-low candidates. All four of these players have not been viable fantasy options recently, but that should change over the next few weeks. Acquiring them now, while their fantasy value is at its lowest point, is an extremely smart move. Each of these players is rostered in over 75% of Yahoo! leagues.

Let's dive into the four best buy-low candidates right now for Week 18.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds was one of the most consistent fantasy players in the first half. He had a .283/.400/.477 slash line with 14 home runs, 22 doubles, two triples, 59 RBI, and seven stolen bases in his first 97 games. Reynolds was contributing solid all-around numbers and was ranked top-40 overall in Fantrax leagues prior to the All-Star break.

But Reynolds has really struggled since the All-Star break. He's slashing a mere .159/.229/.318 with one home run, four doubles, two RBI, four walks, and 18 strikeouts across his last 11 games. His batting average has dropped 14 points from .283 to .269 during this stretch, and the two-time All-Star is currently in a 4-for-37 slump at the plate. The start to his second half has obviously not gone according to plan.

TIE GAME! pic.twitter.com/mIKd9cCOuv

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 28, 2026

However, his recent numbers give fantasy managers the perfect opportunity to trade for him in Week 18 of the fantasy baseball season. While Reynolds has not been a viable fantasy option over the last two weeks, it's only a matter of time until he breaks out of this mini-slump. That makes him a clear buy-low candidate at this point in the year.

Reynolds still ranks in the top 30% of the league in xwOBA (.359), expected slugging (.445), average exit velocity (90.9 mph), barrel rate (11.4%), hard-hit rate (47%), and launch angle sweet-spot rate (36.7%) despite his poor numbers to open the second half. He also still owns a 92nd percentile walk rate (13.8%) and has some sneaky stolen base upside with his 70th percentile sprint speed (28.1 ft/sec).

Now is the best time to trade for Reynolds because his fantasy value is the lowest it has been all year. His home run in the ninth inning on Tuesday could be a sign that is slump is coming to an end.

Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has looked like a completely different pitcher on the mound this season. After finishing with a 2.89 ERA across 121 1/3 innings in 2024 and posting a 2.94 ERA across 186 2/3 innings in 2025, Woo's numbers have taken a step back. The former All-Star currently owns a 4.37 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts in 115 1/3 innings pitched.

The biggest cause for Woo's regression in 2026 has been his struggles on the road. The Mariners right-hander has a whopping 6.52 ERA with a 19.3% strikeout rate in 11 road starts, compared to a 2.20 ERA with a 29.6% strikeout rate in nine home starts. He has had a hard time pitching away from T-Mobile Park and has been unstartable in fantasy on the road.

Woo has given up at least four runs in each of his last six road starts. Some of his poor outings during this stretch include allowing seven runs across five innings against the Orioles on June 11, giving up five runs across four innings against the Pirates on June 24, and allowing five runs across five innings against the Rangers in his most recent outing over the weekend.

3-spot in the 1st! #AllForTX pic.twitter.com/FH8rLLN6gs

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) July 25, 2026

The crazy thing about Woo is that between each of these road starts is a dominant home performance. He threw seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Orioles on June 18, delivered 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against the Angels on June 30, and threw six innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts against the Giants on July 18.

Neither the Mariners nor the Woo really know why he continues to struggle on the road. But if you are in need of some starting pitcher help, now is the best time to trade for the 26-year-old.

Some positive regression should be heading Woo's way within the next few weeks. His expected ERA (3.53) is 84 points lower than his actual ERA (4.37), and he still ranks in the top half of the league in Pitching Run Value, Fastball Run Value, Offspeed Run Value, chase rate (34.7%), walk rate (5.1%), and barrel rate (6.6%).

Bryce Miller, SP, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller was untouchable to begin his 2026 season. He started the year on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain that he suffered in the spring, but he was eventually activated from the IL in mid-May. Miller then wasted no time making a strong impact in Seattle's rotation.

The 27-year-old right-hander had a 1.71 ERA and a 33.2% strikeout rate in his first nine starts. Miller allowed three runs or fewer in each of those nine outings, and his swing-and-miss stuff was on display all throughout June. He struck out nine batters, seven batters, seven batters, and 11 batters across four separate starts last month.

Bryce Miller, K'ing the Side in the 2nd pic.twitter.com/37lfyo8Guc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 3, 2026

Unfortunately, Miller has not been able to maintain those strong numbers on the mound. The former Texas A&M hurler has given up 14 runs (11 earned runs) over his last 16 innings pitched. He allowed six runs (four earned runs) across five innings against the Marlins on July 9, gave up three runs (two earned runs) across 5 2/3 innings against the Giants on July 17, and allowed five runs across 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers last week.

That outing last week against the Rangers was Miller's worst of the year. He gave up a season-high five earned runs while striking out zero batters for the first time all season.

Although Miller has had a couple of uneven starts in July, he is still a top buy-low target in Week 18 of the fantasy baseball season. His underlying metrics suggest he will return to dominance on the mound in the near future. He currently ranks in the 95th percentile in expected ERA (2.67), 87th percentile in expected batting average against (.205), 94th percentile in chase rate (36.4%), and 99th percentile in walk rate (4.2%).

It's best to trade for him now before his fantasy value rises.

Freddy Peralta, SP, New York Mets

It has been a disastrous season so far for New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta. Peralta currently owns a 4.99 ERA and a 22.1% strikeout rate across 113 2/3 innings pitched. These poor numbers come after the veteran right-hander posted the best numbers of his career in 2025 with the Milwaukee Brewers. He had a 2.70 ERA and a 28.2% strikeout rate while finishing fifth in the National League Cy Young voting.

Peralta just hasn't been that same pitcher this year. His whiff rate (26.8%), chase rate (29.5%), and strikeout rate (22.1%) are all down from 2025, and his hard-hit rate (38.2%) only ranks around league average. His struggles have definitely been felt in the month of July as well, as the 30-year-old has a 6.85 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate across five starts this month.

Peralta might be struggling right now, but he is a solid buy-low target this week because things should turn around for him in the next few weeks. His expected ERA (3.85) is significantly better than his actual ERA (4.99), and a change of scenery could be the best thing for him, With the Mets likely to trade him by next week's deadline, a new home could be exactly what Peralta needs to get back on track.

Given the way Peralta has thrown the ball this season, it shouldn't cost much to acquire him. This low-risk, high-reward pickup could really help your fantasy team down the stretch. The two-time All-Star has shown to be a fantasy ace in the past. It could happen again if he's traded to a team like the Cubs, who currently have the best defense in baseball.

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