2025 NBA Mock Draft - Projected Lottery Picks and Player Analysis

Jamie Calandro's (@jac3600) take on the 2025 NBA Draft with a mock covering the lottery in-depth. His projections for all 14 lottery teams in the first round.

The balls are in, and the lottery Gods have selected...the Dallas Mavericks! This, of course, has sent social media ablaze with conspiracies and arguments about the sanctity of the league and whatnot. Please keep in mind that this is highly unlikely, since it's difficult to believe the NBA would engage in what amounts to a Federal Offense.

So, Dallas is on the clock! It's pretty evident what they'll do, but let's see how the rest of this mock shakes out. Each pick is what I would do if I could split myself into 14 GMs, and I'll discuss these with anyone who wants to listen on X or in our RotoBaller Discord.

Let's get into it. I'm happy to discuss these further (and the rest of the draft) on X @jac3600.

1) Dallas Mavericks: SF/PF - Cooper Flagg, Duke

The conspiracy theorists are still having a ball with this one. After the world watched Dallas GM Nico Harrison make that insane Luka Doncic trade, it looked like Mavs fans would hit rock bottom. Now, they were rewarded as they watched their team win the lottery despite a minuscule 1.8% odds. This pick is easy.

MAVS WIN THE NO. 1 PICK IN THE 2025 NBA DRAFT 🔥

COOPER FLAGG, AD & KYRIE 🔜? 🤯🍿 pic.twitter.com/JO8PtAwtkx

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 12, 2025

Cooper Flagg has held this top spot in mocks since the 2024-25 season started, and nothing has changed. The elite two-way Duke player will be a welcome addition to the Mavericks. The injury to Kyrie Irving will keep him out for the early part of the season at least, which may immediately push Flagg to stretch his handling and playmaking abilities.

On an anecdotal note, I moved to Maine from New York nine years ago and saw Flagg play firsthand when he was a freshman at Nokomis High School. I have never seen a more polished player firsthand that early in his career than this young man, and his rapid improvement at Duke was also evident. Dallas is getting a gem.

2) San Antonio Spurs: PG/SG - Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Now this is where things get interesting for me. Not only do the Spurs have the last two Rookies of the Year on their roster (Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle), but they also moved up six spots in the lottery with a massive stroke of luck. The question is - what will they do with this pick?

Giannis Antetokounmpo's future is going to be the most talked-about topic of the NBA offseason, and packaging the second pick with...something...could be a realistic move for the Spurs (imagine a core of De'Aaron Fox, Giannis, and Wemby). It'll take a lot of creativity for someone to land the Bucks' big man, so let's assume the Spurs simply make this pick here.

From a positional standpoint, Dylan Harper is difficult to picture on the Spurs as he'll have to fit alongside Fox and Castle. However, it's tough to imagine the Spurs passing on the consensus #2 prospect in this class. Harper comes from a strong NBA pedigree, and he offers the same high-floor skills and playmaking ability as his father.

The Spurs should take the best player available and get creative about how to use him later.

3) Philadelphia 76ers: SG/SF - Ace Bailey, Rutgers

This is another difficult one to project, as the 76ers have to decide whether they want to go for it with Joel Embiid's shrinking window or simply play for the future. If they're not content to wait for Ace Bailey to develop, there's a chance they trade him for a haul (many teams would salivate over Bailey here).

Ace Bailey has the NBA World in a frenzy following the Combine, but we should be praising his confidence — not knocking it.🗣️

He’s currently projected 3rd overall to the 76ers, and has franchise-changing talent!📈🔔

More below⬇️ pic.twitter.com/o7YE8WJkjX

— GREENLIGHT MEDIA (@greenlightbball) May 18, 2025

If they do keep the pick, Bailey makes a lot of sense. He's a 6'10" shooter whose ability to get the ball into the bucket looks wonderful alongside Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain. Bailey is a freak of an athlete who could immediately start pouring in 20-30 point games for Philly if the coaching staff can quickly get him to be more consistent.

4) Charlotte Hornets: SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

There's a distinct possibility that Philadelphia could draft VJ Edgecombe before Ace Bailey. The reigning Big 12 Freshman of the Year has the upside to surpass anyone in this draft if he develops correctly. Edgecombe brings a ton of two-way versatility that would fit nicely alongside LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

Edgecombe brings explosive athleticism and a strong work ethic to the Hornets, and his defensive prowess is something Charlotte has been craving for a while at the wing position. There are some questions about which position he'll fit best, but he should enter the 2025-26 season with an immediate role.

5) Utah Jazz: SG/SF - Kon Knueppel, Duke

Poor Utah. They tank... and they tank... and then they tank some more, only to see themselves tumble to fifth. They lose out not only on Cooper Flagg but also on the Rutgers stars as well. The Jazz have multiple needs, so there's a variety of paths they can take here. Ultimately, Kon Knueppel looks like the best choice in the short- and long-term.

Knueppel has one of the best, if not the best, basketball IQs in this draft. The NCAA Tournament was instrumental in showcasing Knueppel's versatility, both on offense and defense. He's not the most explosive athlete, but teams have figured out how to turn those archetypes into useful players for their squad in the past.

Kon Knueppel is an elite shooter off the catch. Dating back to high school he’s shooting 42% in catch and shoot situations on over 400 shot attempts. Great percentage on a high sample size.

There is little doubt in my mind that Knueppel is a top shooter in this year’s draft and… pic.twitter.com/xOHZXAXPEu

— Global Scouting (@GlobalScouting_) May 18, 2025

Aside from all the little things he brings, Knueppel is also a sharpshooter who should succeed at the NBA level.

6) Washington Wizards: SG - Tre Johnson, Texas

Washington is another team that got screwed by the lottery balls despite a valiant effort to tank. This should be a simple case of "best player available", and for their purposes, that's Tre Johnson. The Texas guard has vaulted up draft boards recently and could add a much-needed scoring punch to the Wizards, who ranked 30th in offensive efficiency this past year.

As we saw this past NCAA season, Johnson is a shooter who can get hot from anywhere on the court, and that kind of Dion Waiters-like tendency is something Washington desperately desires. His 19.9 PPG in college will be a welcome addition at the NBA level.

7) New Orleans Pelicans: PF/C - Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Some may call this a bit of a reach, but I'm predicating this on two things. One is the incredible need that New Orleans has on defense, and the other is the fact that I'm rather convinced the Pelicans will attempt to deal Zion Williamson in the offseason.

Collin Murray-Boyles met with the Bulls today and came away with a strong impression of the front office.

Says his selling point is his defense.

“I believe that I am the best defensive prospect in this draft.” pic.twitter.com/7g1JGeXW4S

— Julia Poe (@byjuliapoe) May 14, 2025

Collin Murray-Boyles is undersized for a PF/C, but he's probably the best pure defender in this draft. Slotting him in alongside Yves Missi is a great start to solidifying the New Orleans interior. At 6'7", matchups will matter, but it didn't stop Dennis Rodman, or Draymond Green, so...

8) Brooklyn Nets: PG - Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

There's a good chance Jeremiah Fears doesn't last this far in the draft (he could go as early as fifth to Utah). If he does, the Nets are getting a great value pick despite tumbling further down the board than they'd have liked.

Despite being one of the youngest players in College Basketball, Fears looked way more polished than he had a right to be in his Freshman Year. He brings an elite combination of speed and shot creation that would help Brooklyn right out of the gate and in the long term.

9) Toronto Raptors: C Derik Queen, Maryland

The Raptors are pretty well set at the guard and wing positions going into next year, but man, do they need some help with the interior. There are two centers to choose from here, but Toronto should be playing to win next year, a little more than they'd like to try and develop Khaman Malauch.

Derik Queen showed a lot in the NCAA Tournament, including an acrobatic buzzer-beater that sent Maryland to the Sweet 16. His range isn't great, but that won't matter as much on a team like Toronto. Queen can be a force in the paint for a team that got taken to school underneath all year.

10) Houston Rockets: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Suns' failing to make the playoffs this year became Houston's good fortune. However, Houston is not really in a position to be thinking about the future after attaining the two seed. They'd be best served to trade this pick, but I'm not going to make this article that complex 🙂

Kasparas Jakucionis is raw, but teams have recognized enough of his abilities that he's a projected lottery pick. If the Rockets do decide to keep this pick, it would make sense to invest in a guard of the future since Fred VanVleet and/or Jalen Green are not guaranteed to be long-term fixtures.

11) Portland Trailblazers: SF/PF Carter Bryant, Arizona

Carter Bryant only started five games for Arizona this past year and was an incredibly low-usage player on offense. So why is he a potential lottery pick? It depends on whether a team perfectly fits his already existing skill set. Based on what we saw down the stretch, that's the Trailblazers.

Carter Bryant is one of the better defenders in this draft. He's rangy, athletic, and disruptive, and would fit well with the new defense-forward ideology of Portland. In the second half, the Trailblazers ranked third in overall defensive efficiency, and compounding that at the wing position is a smart move.

Arizona wing Carter Bryant is a prospect generating significant buzz after the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.

Playing a reserve role this year, Bryant’s two-way upside is seen in his per-36 minute numbers:

12.2 points
7.7 rebounds
1.9 blocks
1.8 assists
59.3 TS%pic.twitter.com/ewKtgCRolJ

— Evan Sidery (@esidery) May 17, 2025

Bryant also showcased that he does have offensive chops, shooting over 45% from downtown in the tournament. This is a value pick for a rising team if he puts it all together.

12) Chicago Bulls: C Khaman Malauch, Duke

It's hard to figure out which team is the best fit for Khaman Malauch, who I think has the widest range of outcomes of anyone projected in this draft. The 7'2" Duke freshman could be an immediate presence for someone, even though he still has a lot of developing to do (he only started playing hoops at age 13!).

Chicago continues to live in playoff purgatory, being a team that we can count on to make the play-in tournament but really go no further. Their current roster projects to do the same, and without a splash in free agency or trade, there's no further upside from them this year.

Enter Malauch, who could give them not only an exciting paint presence in the immediate future, but also give Bulls fans something to look forward to for the future when Nikola Vucevic departs.

13) Atlanta Hawks: PG/SG Egor Demin, BYU

Egor Demin comes in with a Josh Giddey-like passing vision, and for a 6'9" guard, that's a pretty fun thing to get on your team. However, Demin's big knock is that he struggles to get separation and create his own shot (I hear that's a big deal in the NBA).

Because Atlanta already has an elite shot creator in Trae Young, this pick seems worth the risk if they can tap into Demin's potential while at the same time exploiting his strengths.

14) San Antonio Spurs: SG/SF Liam McNeeley, UConn

The San Antonio Huskies? Why not? I like the thought of the Spurs taking their second UConn player in as many years. Liam McNeeley was often a top-5 player in earlier mocks, but has fallen in recent months due to injury and some concerns over his lack of speed and size.

The Spurs have a foundation built already, so they could use someone like McNeeley and lean into his strengths. Before his injuries, he was one of the best three-point shooters in the country, and that's an attribute San Antonio could use to complement their existing roster.

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