Starting Pitchers - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

Eric Cross looks ahead to the 2024 fantasy baseball season and breaks down early ADP data for the starting pitcher position along with ADPs he'll be targeting or fading in drafts.

As we get into the end of January, fantasy baseball draft season is nearly in full swing. At this point, you either have a few drafts under your belt or you're at least getting ready for your first draft of the 2024 season. Wherever you are in your process, we have the content and tools here at RotoBaller to help you succeed this fantasy baseball season.

The starting pitcher landscape seemingly becomes more tricky to navigate each and every season as the number of landmines and risky options become more frequent. It's even more important now than in years past to establish a good core of pitchers, and hopefully, this article will assist you in doing so.

This fantasy baseball ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between December 1 and January 21. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

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Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis - Starting Pitchers

The first thing we have to remember with the above ADP is that it came from NFBC Draft Champion drafts, where pitching generally gets pushed up a bit. You're going to need to use a top-20 pick to secure Spencer Strider or Gerrit Cole, and grabbing them usually comes down to what draft slot you're picking out of. I'm not one that likes to use one of my first two picks on a pitcher, so you won't see me having many shares of those guys this year, but I've become more apt to take one of the arms in the SP 6-10 range or so to secure an ace I can feel comfortable in.

That area is highly important this year. After Zac Gallen (SP9), the next several names aren't exactly locked-in aces that you can feel 100% safe with having as the lead arm on your staff. Yes, they're all talented, but Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season, Yamamoto is adapting to a new league and country, Peralta has been inconsistent, Skubal has only been an ace for half a season, and Nola has this weird odd/even year production swing. I'm not even sure I feel comfortable with Pablo Lopez as my ace.

The pitchers I feel comfortable taking as my ace are Strider, Cole, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Gallen, and maybe George Kirby. That's it. I'm definitely going to have a lot of Gallen shares this year and will probably be shopping in that Burnes/Wheeler/Gausman/Castillo tier plenty as well.

After you secure your ace, you're not going to want to wait too long to snag your SP2. For me, the SP2 range ends with Justin Steele (SP28) and I'm not even overly keen on Joe Ryan as my #2 starter. Everyone after Steele in ADP either projects more as an SP3 for me or has too many question marks to feel safe with them as my SP2.

Given the turmoil and inconsistencies in the starting pitcher landscape these days, having a rock-solid top-two arms to anchor your pitching staff is significantly important. To do so, you're going to need to use at least two of your first 6-7 picks in a 15-team draft or two of your first 8-9 picks in a 12-team draft. Personally, I'm going to be leaving the top 100 picks with at least two starters, maybe three depending on how the draft board falls.

Pitchers With At Least 150 IP in Each of the Last Three Seasons: Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, Chris Bassitt, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Lyles, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Gibson, Lucas Giolito, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Sandy Alcantara, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler.

Starting Pitchers I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

Kevin Gausman, TOR (27.7): Gausman is as consistent as they come and is one of just three pitchers to have a sub-3.50 ERA and at least 150 innings pitched in each of the last three seasons. He's also been above a 28% strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons and checked in at 31.1% in 2023. Basically, Gausman is everything you could want in a fantasy ace and one you can feel extremely confident in.

Zac Gallen, ARI (38.6): It's blatantly obvious that Gallen's 2021 season is the outlier so far in his career as he's posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of his other four seasons. in 2023, Gallen finished with a 3.47 ERA and 20.4% strikeout rate, making him one of just six pitchers to have an ERA under 3.50 and a K-BB rate above 20% last season. The ratios are always solid, the strikeout rate is above average, and the volume is there. Gallen is an ace.

Kyle Bradish, BAL (88.4): Bradish was one of just seven pitchers in 2023 to pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout rate above 24%. But yet, he still feels undervalued. Bradish also started using his sinker more in favor of his four-seamer, which was a very encouraging move and also helped the groundball rate tick up. Bradish is an SP2 that you can likely draft at an SP3 price tag.

Michael King, SD (143.2): I'm a firm believer in the Michael King that we saw down the stretch last season after he transitioned to the rotation. King posted a stellar 2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5% walk rate, and 31.9% strikeout rate in his final seven starts of the season and was one of just five pitchers to have a sub-5% walk rate and a strikeout rate over 30% during that time frame. Given his diverse four-pitch mix, which contains two offerings with whiff rates around 40%, King is a great value pick here that could return a sizeable ROI.

Bailey Ober, MIN (155.7): After digging into Bailey Ober more, I've become more enticed by his ADP after pick 150. After posting a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts back in 2022, Ober recorded a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts last season with a 1.07 WHIP and 20.3% K-BB rate. While I'm slightly concerned by the lower groundball rates and don't believe there's a big ROI opportunity here, Ober feels like a safe option that could replicate his 2023 performance.

Hunter Brown, HOU (182.5): While Brown's ERA wound up just above five, he still recorded a 26.8% strikeout rate, 18.3% K-BB rate, and 4.27 xERA as a rookie, which should be intriguing for anyone in this range of drafts. Brown possesses plenty of additional upside too as he showed more swing-and-miss potential with his two breaking balls in the minors than he did last season. Don't be surprised if we see Brown finish the 2024 season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a K-BB rate of around 20%.

Nick Lodolo, CIN (244.1): The 2023 season was basically a lost season for Lodolo, who was limited to just seven unproductive starts. But I'd like to direct your attention back to 2022 when he finished the season with a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.7% walk rate, and 30% strikeout rate over his final 13 starts. Lodolo isn't as flashy as Hunter Greene, but he's able to miss bats at a high clip and does a better job at keeping the ball on the ground, which is huge at Great American Ball Park. I'm going to be scooping up post-200 ADP shares of Lodolo frequently during draft season this year.

Outside of those six names, I'm also trying to come out of every draft with one of Grayson Rodriguez, Kodai Senga, Eury Perez, and Bobby Miller. All are being drafted in the mid-SP2 range around pick 70 or so on average and all have the upside to produce fantasy ace-caliber seasons.

Favorite Post-200 ADP Targets: Brayan Bello, Cristopher Sanchez, Emmet Sheehan, Nick Lodolo, Kutter Crawford, Michael Wacha, Luis Severino, Jon Gray, AJ Smith-Shawver, Alex Cobb.

Starting Pitcher ADPs I'm Not Keen On

Blake Snell, FA: Listen, I understand that Blake Snell is one of the nastiest pitchers in the game and was lights out for most of the 2023 season, finishing with a 2.25 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in 180 innings. However, he also had the second-highest strand rate among qualified pitchers in the last three seasons along with the highest walk rate by 1.7%. I'm just not going to trust a pitcher with a 13.3% walk rate as my fantasy ace. All of Snell's ERA indicators were 3.44 or higher.

Walker Buehler, LAD (104.2): Under no circumstance am I going to be drafting Walker Buehler anywhere near his 104 ADP. Nope. No way. Not a chance in (censored). Buehler is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and his skills were declining even more after getting hurt in 2022 with an extremely hittable fastball (.365 BAA, .581 SLG) along with declines in his zone contact and whiff rates for the second consecutive season. I'm not saying Buehler can't still be a solid fantasy arm, but this ADP is way too high for me.

Dylan Cease, CHW (111.3): Maybe a trade would help a bit, but I'm not looking to use a top-120 pick on Dylan Cease. Outside of his 2022 season, Cease has been above a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in every other season and we saw his strikeout, whiff, and chase rates tick down in 2023 as well. If Cease fell closer to 150, I'd be okay taking him there, but that's unlikely to happen in many drafts.

Chris Sale, ATL (162.6): With Sale, there are more questions than answers these days. Can he even stay on the field enough to provide positive value at his ADP? He has pitched in a grand total of 161 innings over the last three seasons and hasn't reached the 25-start threshold since 2019. He's also a 3-pitch guy that is really a 2-pitch guy. Sale's changeup (13.1% usage) hasn't been an effective offering for him since 2018 and recorded a .304 BAA last season. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

Reid Detmers, LAA (230.9): This ADP isn't necessarily terrible as Detmers can provide a solid strikeout rate (26.1% in 2023). But outside of that, Detmers gets hit too hard, doesn't generate enough groundballs, and his fastball was a below-average pitch in 2023. There are plenty of other arms I like more in this range (see above).

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