Starting Pitchers - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

As we get into the end of January, fantasy baseball draft season is nearly in full swing. At this point, you either have a few drafts under your belt or you're at least getting ready for your first draft of the 2024 season. Wherever you are in your process, we have the content and tools here at RotoBaller to help you succeed this fantasy baseball season.

The starting pitcher landscape seemingly becomes more tricky to navigate each and every season as the number of landmines and risky options become more frequent. It's even more important now than in years past to establish a good core of pitchers, and hopefully, this article will assist you in doing so.

This fantasy baseball ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between December 1 and January 21. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

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Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis - Starting Pitchers

Rank	Player	Team	ADP	Min	Max
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	7.54	3	13
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	12.98	9	21
3	Corbin Burnes	BAL	25.43	19	34
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI	25.67	19	33
5	Kevin Gausman	TOR	27.65	20	39
6	Luis Castillo	SEA	29.46	18	40
7	George Kirby	SEA	36.39	29	47
8	Pablo Lopez	MIN	36.57	28	49
9	Zac Gallen	ARZ	38.59	26	53
10	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	39.72	28	54
11	Tarik Skubal	DET	50.41	40	63
12	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	50.48	30	72
13	Aaron Nola	PHI	51.13	39	68
14	Freddy Peralta	MLW	53.83	36	69
15	Framber Valdez	HOU	61.46	47	74
16	Logan Webb	SF	62.74	50	79
17	Logan Gilbert	SEA	63.96	56	74
18	Max Fried	ATL	64.02	51	80
19	Blake Snell	SD	64.87	48	88
20	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	66.26	47	84
21	Kodai Senga	NYM	67.46	46	81
22	Bobby Miller	LAD	73.5	62	89
23	Eury Perez	MIA	76	53	101
24	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	79.78	61	102
25	Zach Eflin	TB	83.61	70	103
26	Joe Ryan	MIN	84.37	61	102
27	Kyle Bradish	BAL	88.37	73	116
28	Justin Steele	CHC	100.46	77	122
29	Joe Musgrove	SD	103.04	90	126
30	Walker Buehler	LAD	104.17	84	145
31	Tanner Bibee	CLE	106.07	79	139
32	Cole Ragans	KC	109.89	84	144
33	Dylan Cease	CWS	111.3	90	130
34	Sonny Gray	STL	117.78	98	143
35	Justin Verlander	HOU	124.91	80	162
36	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	138.3	113	165
37	Chris Bassitt	TOR	140.26	113	198
38	Hunter Greene	CIN	140.87	108	199
39	Michael King	SD	143.15	108	170
40	Merrill Kelly	ARZ	153.61	134	200
41	Gavin Williams	CLE	154.33	121	185
42	Bailey Ober	MIN	155.74	133	174
43	Chris Sale	ATL	162.61	126	211
44	Carlos Rodon	NYY	163.3	130	202
45	Mitch Keller	PIT	168.04	138	203
46	Jose Berrios	TOR	169.57	149	203
47	Nick Pivetta	BOS	174.39	151	214
48	Cristian Javier	HOU	176.8	136	221
49	Bryan Woo	SEA	181.74	127	215
50	Hunter Brown	HOU	182.5	161	208
51	Braxton Garrett	MIA	184.35	148	209
52	Shane Bieber	CLE	185.46	134	227
53	Bryce Miller	SEA	186.93	162	230
54	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARZ	189.41	130	217
55	Ryan Pepiot	TB	192.41	141	223
56	Shane Baz	TB	194.54	144	246
57	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	199.33	167	232
58	Aaron Civale	TB	203.98	182	242
59	Brandon Pfaadt	ARZ	206.85	171	240
60	Yu Darvish	SD	214.33	181	256
61	Shota Imanaga	CHC	217.87	140	254
62	Carlos Estevez	LAA	220.59	125	332
63	Lucas Giolito	BOS	222.28	196	263
64	Reid Detmers	LAA	230.89	206	268
65	Brayan Bello	BOS	233.63	200	298
66	Charlie Morton	ATL	239.67	211	276
67	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	240.48	198	272
68	Triston McKenzie	CLE	241.57	209	274
69	Emmet Sheehan	LAD	243.26	203	299
70	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	243.89	212	272
71	Nick Lodolo	CIN	244.07	201	282
72	Kenta Maeda	DET	245.63	210	273
73	Andrew Abbott	CIN	256.93	201	306
74	Taj Bradley	TB	257.28	212	287
75	Seth Lugo	KC	266.13	220	300
76	Reese Olson	DET	266.93	223	323
77	Kyle Harrison	SF	272.39	220	310
78	Nestor Cortes	NYY	272.8	215	312
79	John Means	BAL	272.93	226	334
80	Marcus Stroman	NYY	280.13	223	322
81	Kutter Crawford	BOS	282.04	240	316
82	Michael Wacha	KC	282.35	234	342
83	Griffin Canning	LAA	282.46	244	356
84	Max Scherzer	TEX	291.02	105	447
85	Edward Cabrera	MIA	295.13	227	329
86	MacKenzie Gore	WAS	296.33	261	338
87	Lance Lynn	STL	300.46	257	342
88	Luis Severino	NYM	306.74	232	352
89	Louie Varland	MIN	307.13	254	382
90	Jameson Taillon	CHC	310.26	271	355
91	Jon Gray	TEX	314.48	280	342
92	Jordan Hicks	SF	315.46	251	422
93	Chris Paddack	MIN	322.7	288	358
94	Paul Skenes	PIT	329.61	251	442
95	Dean Kremer	BAL	334.54	294	374
96	Chase Silseth	LAA	335.5	294	405
97	Tyler Wells	BAL	337.04	271	412
98	Logan Allen	CLE	339.91	285	400
99	Ranger Suarez	PHI	342.41	226	401
100	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	348.39	285	415
101	Steven Matz	STL	348.52	300	396
102	Trevor Rogers	MIA	348.91	306	404
103	Frankie Montas	CIN	349.54	279	404
104	Ricky Tiedemann	TOR	354.5	281	429
105	Sawyer Gipson-Long	DET	356.13	268	437
106	James Paxton	BOS	362.48	291	403
107	Andrew Heaney	TEX	365.67	308	443
108	Dane Dunning	TEX	368.22	318	430
109	Alek Manoah	TOR	369.17	316	439
110	Sean Manaea	NYM	371.28	303	444
111	Garrett Whitlock	BOS	372.22	262	426
112	Jack Flaherty	DET	378.61	323	435
113	Bryce Elder	ATL	380.2	302	469
114	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	380.63	315	449
115	Josiah Gray	WAS	381.8	266	477
116	Zack Littell	TB	382.11	324	424
117	AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL	392.98	291	491
118	JP Sears	OAK	396.11	349	460
119	Mike Clevinger	CWS	403.2	329	476
120	Jose Quintana	NYM	411.63	332	457
121	Cade Horton	CHC	412.17	337	547
122	Tanner Houck	BOS	412.37	304	446
123	Erick Fedde	CWS	412.57	295	578
124	Taijuan Walker	PHI	413.59	327	468
125	Aaron Ashby	MLW	414.61	364	477
126	Miles Mikolas	STL	414.93	364	459
127	Alex Cobb	SF	417.28	336	480
128	Nick Martinez	CIN	419.2	303	508
129	Max Meyer	MIA	427.74	373	482
130	Kyle Gibson	STL	428.5	360	499
131	Keaton Winn	SF	431.15	367	508
132	Matt Manning	DET	431.89	346	517
133	Jordan Wicks	CHC	437.13	350	539
134	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	438.65	335	521
135	Joe Boyle	OAK	439.07	339	551
136	Jacob deGrom	TEX	444.48	340	601
137	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	445.98	352	525
138	Trevor Bauer	LAD	446.65	240	680
139	Drew Thorpe	NYY	447.91	363	518
140	Brady Singer	KC	451.09	382	520
141	Casey Mize	DET	452.67	321	536
142	J.P. France	HOU	459.07	397	523
143	Javier Assad	CHC	460.46	379	606
144	Wade Miley	MLW	464.26	367	547
145	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	467.04	307	637
146	Jackson Jobe	DET	471.93	384	560
147	Jared Jones	PIT	473.11	409	531
148	Hyun Jin Ryu	TOR	474.74	424	547
149	Hurston Waldrep	ATL	477.91	387	553
150	Robert Gasser	MLW	481.57	416	615
151	Gavin Stone	LAD	487.22	391	568
152	Jose Urquidy	HOU	490.61	441	558
153	Jeffrey Springs	TB	500.76	367	614

The first thing we have to remember with the above ADP is that it came from NFBC Draft Champion drafts, where pitching generally gets pushed up a bit. You're going to need to use a top-20 pick to secure Spencer Strider or Gerrit Cole, and grabbing them usually comes down to what draft slot you're picking out of. I'm not one that likes to use one of my first two picks on a pitcher, so you won't see me having many shares of those guys this year, but I've become more apt to take one of the arms in the SP 6-10 range or so to secure an ace I can feel comfortable in.

That area is highly important this year. After Zac Gallen (SP9), the next several names aren't exactly locked-in aces that you can feel 100% safe with having as the lead arm on your staff. Yes, they're all talented, but Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season, Yamamoto is adapting to a new league and country, Peralta has been inconsistent, Skubal has only been an ace for half a season, and Nola has this weird odd/even year production swing. I'm not even sure I feel comfortable with Pablo Lopez as my ace.

The pitchers I feel comfortable taking as my ace are Strider, Cole, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Gallen, and maybe George Kirby. That's it. I'm definitely going to have a lot of Gallen shares this year and will probably be shopping in that Burnes/Wheeler/Gausman/Castillo tier plenty as well.

After you secure your ace, you're not going to want to wait too long to snag your SP2. For me, the SP2 range ends with Justin Steele (SP28) and I'm not even overly keen on Joe Ryan as my #2 starter. Everyone after Steele in ADP either projects more as an SP3 for me or has too many question marks to feel safe with them as my SP2.

Given the turmoil and inconsistencies in the starting pitcher landscape these days, having a rock-solid top-two arms to anchor your pitching staff is significantly important. To do so, you're going to need to use at least two of your first 6-7 picks in a 15-team draft or two of your first 8-9 picks in a 12-team draft. Personally, I'm going to be leaving the top 100 picks with at least two starters, maybe three depending on how the draft board falls.

Pitchers With At Least 150 IP in Each of the Last Three Seasons: Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, Chris Bassitt, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Lyles, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Gibson, Lucas Giolito, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Sandy Alcantara, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler.

 

Starting Pitchers I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

Kevin Gausman, TOR (27.7): Gausman is as consistent as they come and is one of just three pitchers to have a sub-3.50 ERA and at least 150 innings pitched in each of the last three seasons. He's also been above a 28% strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons and checked in at 31.1% in 2023. Basically, Gausman is everything you could want in a fantasy ace and one you can feel extremely confident in.

Zac Gallen, ARI (38.6): It's blatantly obvious that Gallen's 2021 season is the outlier so far in his career as he's posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of his other four seasons. in 2023, Gallen finished with a 3.47 ERA and 20.4% strikeout rate, making him one of just six pitchers to have an ERA under 3.50 and a K-BB rate above 20% last season. The ratios are always solid, the strikeout rate is above average, and the volume is there. Gallen is an ace.

Kyle Bradish, BAL (88.4): Bradish was one of just seven pitchers in 2023 to pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout rate above 24%. But yet, he still feels undervalued. Bradish also started using his sinker more in favor of his four-seamer, which was a very encouraging move and also helped the groundball rate tick up. Bradish is an SP2 that you can likely draft at an SP3 price tag.

Michael King, SD (143.2): I'm a firm believer in the Michael King that we saw down the stretch last season after he transitioned to the rotation. King posted a stellar 2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5% walk rate, and 31.9% strikeout rate in his final seven starts of the season and was one of just five pitchers to have a sub-5% walk rate and a strikeout rate over 30% during that time frame. Given his diverse four-pitch mix, which contains two offerings with whiff rates around 40%, King is a great value pick here that could return a sizeable ROI.

Bailey Ober, MIN (155.7): After digging into Bailey Ober more, I've become more enticed by his ADP after pick 150. After posting a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts back in 2022, Ober recorded a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts last season with a 1.07 WHIP and 20.3% K-BB rate. While I'm slightly concerned by the lower groundball rates and don't believe there's a big ROI opportunity here, Ober feels like a safe option that could replicate his 2023 performance.

Hunter Brown, HOU (182.5): While Brown's ERA wound up just above five, he still recorded a 26.8% strikeout rate, 18.3% K-BB rate, and 4.27 xERA as a rookie, which should be intriguing for anyone in this range of drafts. Brown possesses plenty of additional upside too as he showed more swing-and-miss potential with his two breaking balls in the minors than he did last season. Don't be surprised if we see Brown finish the 2024 season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a K-BB rate of around 20%.

Nick Lodolo, CIN (244.1): The 2023 season was basically a lost season for Lodolo, who was limited to just seven unproductive starts. But I'd like to direct your attention back to 2022 when he finished the season with a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.7% walk rate, and 30% strikeout rate over his final 13 starts. Lodolo isn't as flashy as Hunter Greene, but he's able to miss bats at a high clip and does a better job at keeping the ball on the ground, which is huge at Great American Ball Park. I'm going to be scooping up post-200 ADP shares of Lodolo frequently during draft season this year.

Outside of those six names, I'm also trying to come out of every draft with one of Grayson Rodriguez, Kodai Senga, Eury Perez, and Bobby Miller. All are being drafted in the mid-SP2 range around pick 70 or so on average and all have the upside to produce fantasy ace-caliber seasons.

Favorite Post-200 ADP Targets: Brayan Bello, Cristopher Sanchez, Emmet Sheehan, Nick Lodolo, Kutter Crawford, Michael Wacha, Luis Severino, Jon Gray, AJ Smith-Shawver, Alex Cobb.

 

Starting Pitcher ADPs I'm Not Keen On

Blake Snell, FA: Listen, I understand that Blake Snell is one of the nastiest pitchers in the game and was lights out for most of the 2023 season, finishing with a 2.25 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in 180 innings. However, he also had the second-highest strand rate among qualified pitchers in the last three seasons along with the highest walk rate by 1.7%. I'm just not going to trust a pitcher with a 13.3% walk rate as my fantasy ace. All of Snell's ERA indicators were 3.44 or higher.

Walker Buehler, LAD (104.2): Under no circumstance am I going to be drafting Walker Buehler anywhere near his 104 ADP. Nope. No way. Not a chance in (censored). Buehler is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and his skills were declining even more after getting hurt in 2022 with an extremely hittable fastball (.365 BAA, .581 SLG) along with declines in his zone contact and whiff rates for the second consecutive season. I'm not saying Buehler can't still be a solid fantasy arm, but this ADP is way too high for me.

Dylan Cease, CHW (111.3): Maybe a trade would help a bit, but I'm not looking to use a top-120 pick on Dylan Cease. Outside of his 2022 season, Cease has been above a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in every other season and we saw his strikeout, whiff, and chase rates tick down in 2023 as well. If Cease fell closer to 150, I'd be okay taking him there, but that's unlikely to happen in many drafts.

Chris Sale, ATL (162.6): With Sale, there are more questions than answers these days. Can he even stay on the field enough to provide positive value at his ADP? He has pitched in a grand total of 161 innings over the last three seasons and hasn't reached the 25-start threshold since 2019. He's also a 3-pitch guy that is really a 2-pitch guy. Sale's changeup (13.1% usage) hasn't been an effective offering for him since 2018 and recorded a .304 BAA last season. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

Reid Detmers, LAA (230.9): This ADP isn't necessarily terrible as Detmers can provide a solid strikeout rate (26.1% in 2023). But outside of that, Detmers gets hit too hard, doesn't generate enough groundballs, and his fastball was a below-average pitch in 2023. There are plenty of other arms I like more in this range (see above).

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