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Starting Pitchers - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

Spencer Strider fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers starting pitchers

As we get into the end of January, fantasy baseball draft season is nearly in full swing. At this point, you either have a few drafts under your belt or you're at least getting ready for your first draft of the 2024 season. Wherever you are in your process, we have the content and tools here at RotoBaller to help you succeed this fantasy baseball season.

The starting pitcher landscape seemingly becomes more tricky to navigate each and every season as the number of landmines and risky options become more frequent. It's even more important now than in years past to establish a good core of pitchers, and hopefully, this article will assist you in doing so.

This fantasy baseball ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between December 1 and January 21. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

 

Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis - Starting Pitchers

Rank Player Team ADP Min Max
1  Spencer Strider ATL 7.54 3 13
2  Gerrit Cole NYY 12.98 9 21
3  Corbin Burnes BAL 25.43 19 34
4  Zack Wheeler PHI 25.67 19 33
5  Kevin Gausman TOR 27.65 20 39
6  Luis Castillo SEA 29.46 18 40
7  George Kirby SEA 36.39 29 47
8  Pablo Lopez MIN 36.57 28 49
9  Zac Gallen ARZ 38.59 26 53
10  Tyler Glasnow LAD 39.72 28 54
11  Tarik Skubal DET 50.41 40 63
12  Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD 50.48 30 72
13  Aaron Nola PHI 51.13 39 68
14  Freddy Peralta MLW 53.83 36 69
15  Framber Valdez HOU 61.46 47 74
16  Logan Webb SF 62.74 50 79
17  Logan Gilbert SEA 63.96 56 74
18  Max Fried ATL 64.02 51 80
19  Blake Snell SD 64.87 48 88
20  Grayson Rodriguez BAL 66.26 47 84
21  Kodai Senga NYM 67.46 46 81
22  Bobby Miller LAD 73.5 62 89
23  Eury Perez MIA 76 53 101
24  Jesus Luzardo MIA 79.78 61 102
25  Zach Eflin TB 83.61 70 103
26  Joe Ryan MIN 84.37 61 102
27  Kyle Bradish BAL 88.37 73 116
28  Justin Steele CHC 100.46 77 122
29  Joe Musgrove SD 103.04 90 126
30  Walker Buehler LAD 104.17 84 145
31  Tanner Bibee CLE 106.07 79 139
32  Cole Ragans KC 109.89 84 144
33  Dylan Cease CWS 111.3 90 130
34  Sonny Gray STL 117.78 98 143
35  Justin Verlander HOU 124.91 80 162
36  Jordan Montgomery TEX 138.3 113 165
37  Chris Bassitt TOR 140.26 113 198
38  Hunter Greene CIN 140.87 108 199
39  Michael King SD 143.15 108 170
40  Merrill Kelly ARZ 153.61 134 200
41  Gavin Williams CLE 154.33 121 185
42  Bailey Ober MIN 155.74 133 174
43  Chris Sale ATL 162.61 126 211
44  Carlos Rodon NYY 163.3 130 202
45  Mitch Keller PIT 168.04 138 203
46  Jose Berrios TOR 169.57 149 203
47  Nick Pivetta BOS 174.39 151 214
48  Cristian Javier HOU 176.8 136 221
49  Bryan Woo SEA 181.74 127 215
50  Hunter Brown HOU 182.5 161 208
51  Braxton Garrett MIA 184.35 148 209
52  Shane Bieber CLE 185.46 134 227
53  Bryce Miller SEA 186.93 162 230
54  Eduardo Rodriguez ARZ 189.41 130 217
55  Ryan Pepiot TB 192.41 141 223
56  Shane Baz TB 194.54 144 246
57  Nathan Eovaldi TEX 199.33 167 232
58  Aaron Civale TB 203.98 182 242
59  Brandon Pfaadt ARZ 206.85 171 240
60  Yu Darvish SD 214.33 181 256
61  Shota Imanaga CHC 217.87 140 254
62  Carlos Estevez LAA 220.59 125 332
63  Lucas Giolito BOS 222.28 196 263
64  Reid Detmers LAA 230.89 206 268
65  Brayan Bello BOS 233.63 200 298
66  Charlie Morton ATL 239.67 211 276
67  Cristopher Sanchez PHI 240.48 198 272
68  Triston McKenzie CLE 241.57 209 274
69  Emmet Sheehan LAD 243.26 203 299
70  Yusei Kikuchi TOR 243.89 212 272
71  Nick Lodolo CIN 244.07 201 282
72  Kenta Maeda DET 245.63 210 273
73  Andrew Abbott CIN 256.93 201 306
74  Taj Bradley TB 257.28 212 287
75  Seth Lugo KC 266.13 220 300
76  Reese Olson DET 266.93 223 323
77  Kyle Harrison SF 272.39 220 310
78  Nestor Cortes NYY 272.8 215 312
79  John Means BAL 272.93 226 334
80  Marcus Stroman NYY 280.13 223 322
81  Kutter Crawford BOS 282.04 240 316
82  Michael Wacha KC 282.35 234 342
83  Griffin Canning LAA 282.46 244 356
84  Max Scherzer TEX 291.02 105 447
85  Edward Cabrera MIA 295.13 227 329
86  MacKenzie Gore WAS 296.33 261 338
87  Lance Lynn STL 300.46 257 342
88  Luis Severino NYM 306.74 232 352
89  Louie Varland MIN 307.13 254 382
90  Jameson Taillon CHC 310.26 271 355
91  Jon Gray TEX 314.48 280 342
92  Jordan Hicks SF 315.46 251 422
93  Chris Paddack MIN 322.7 288 358
94  Paul Skenes PIT 329.61 251 442
95  Dean Kremer BAL 334.54 294 374
96  Chase Silseth LAA 335.5 294 405
97  Tyler Wells BAL 337.04 271 412
98  Logan Allen CLE 339.91 285 400
99  Ranger Suarez PHI 342.41 226 401
100  Clarke Schmidt NYY 348.39 285 415
101  Steven Matz STL 348.52 300 396
102  Trevor Rogers MIA 348.91 306 404
103  Frankie Montas CIN 349.54 279 404
104  Ricky Tiedemann TOR 354.5 281 429
105  Sawyer Gipson-Long DET 356.13 268 437
106  James Paxton BOS 362.48 291 403
107  Andrew Heaney TEX 365.67 308 443
108  Dane Dunning TEX 368.22 318 430
109  Alek Manoah TOR 369.17 316 439
110  Sean Manaea NYM 371.28 303 444
111  Garrett Whitlock BOS 372.22 262 426
112  Jack Flaherty DET 378.61 323 435
113  Bryce Elder ATL 380.2 302 469
114  Graham Ashcraft CIN 380.63 315 449
115  Josiah Gray WAS 381.8 266 477
116  Zack Littell TB 382.11 324 424
117  AJ Smith-Shawver ATL 392.98 291 491
118  JP Sears OAK 396.11 349 460
119  Mike Clevinger CWS 403.2 329 476
120  Jose Quintana NYM 411.63 332 457
121  Cade Horton CHC 412.17 337 547
122  Tanner Houck BOS 412.37 304 446
123  Erick Fedde CWS 412.57 295 578
124  Taijuan Walker PHI 413.59 327 468
125  Aaron Ashby MLW 414.61 364 477
126  Miles Mikolas STL 414.93 364 459
127  Alex Cobb SF 417.28 336 480
128  Nick Martinez CIN 419.2 303 508
129  Max Meyer MIA 427.74 373 482
130  Kyle Gibson STL 428.5 360 499
131  Keaton Winn SF 431.15 367 508
132  Matt Manning DET 431.89 346 517
133  Jordan Wicks CHC 437.13 350 539
134  Kyle Hendricks CHC 438.65 335 521
135  Joe Boyle OAK 439.07 339 551
136  Jacob deGrom TEX 444.48 340 601
137  Patrick Sandoval LAA 445.98 352 525
138  Trevor Bauer LAD 446.65 240 680
139  Drew Thorpe NYY 447.91 363 518
140  Brady Singer KC 451.09 382 520
141  Casey Mize DET 452.67 321 536
142  J.P. France HOU 459.07 397 523
143  Javier Assad CHC 460.46 379 606
144  Wade Miley MLW 464.26 367 547
145  Clayton Kershaw LAD 467.04 307 637
146  Jackson Jobe DET 471.93 384 560
147  Jared Jones PIT 473.11 409 531
148  Hyun Jin Ryu TOR 474.74 424 547
149  Hurston Waldrep ATL 477.91 387 553
150  Robert Gasser MLW 481.57 416 615
151  Gavin Stone LAD 487.22 391 568
152  Jose Urquidy HOU 490.61 441 558
153  Jeffrey Springs TB 500.76 367 614

The first thing we have to remember with the above ADP is that it came from NFBC Draft Champion drafts, where pitching generally gets pushed up a bit. You're going to need to use a top-20 pick to secure Spencer Strider or Gerrit Cole, and grabbing them usually comes down to what draft slot you're picking out of. I'm not one that likes to use one of my first two picks on a pitcher, so you won't see me having many shares of those guys this year, but I've become more apt to take one of the arms in the SP 6-10 range or so to secure an ace I can feel comfortable in.

That area is highly important this year. After Zac Gallen (SP9), the next several names aren't exactly locked-in aces that you can feel 100% safe with having as the lead arm on your staff. Yes, they're all talented, but Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season, Yamamoto is adapting to a new league and country, Peralta has been inconsistent, Skubal has only been an ace for half a season, and Nola has this weird odd/even year production swing. I'm not even sure I feel comfortable with Pablo Lopez as my ace.

The pitchers I feel comfortable taking as my ace are Strider, Cole, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Gallen, and maybe George Kirby. That's it. I'm definitely going to have a lot of Gallen shares this year and will probably be shopping in that Burnes/Wheeler/Gausman/Castillo tier plenty as well.

After you secure your ace, you're not going to want to wait too long to snag your SP2. For me, the SP2 range ends with Justin Steele (SP28) and I'm not even overly keen on Joe Ryan as my #2 starter. Everyone after Steele in ADP either projects more as an SP3 for me or has too many question marks to feel safe with them as my SP2.

Given the turmoil and inconsistencies in the starting pitcher landscape these days, having a rock-solid top-two arms to anchor your pitching staff is significantly important. To do so, you're going to need to use at least two of your first 6-7 picks in a 15-team draft or two of your first 8-9 picks in a 12-team draft. Personally, I'm going to be leaving the top 100 picks with at least two starters, maybe three depending on how the draft board falls.

Pitchers With At Least 150 IP in Each of the Last Three Seasons: Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, Chris Bassitt, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Lyles, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Gibson, Lucas Giolito, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Sandy Alcantara, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler.

 

Starting Pitchers I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

Kevin Gausman, TOR (27.7): Gausman is as consistent as they come and is one of just three pitchers to have a sub-3.50 ERA and at least 150 innings pitched in each of the last three seasons. He's also been above a 28% strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons and checked in at 31.1% in 2023. Basically, Gausman is everything you could want in a fantasy ace and one you can feel extremely confident in.

Zac Gallen, ARI (38.6): It's blatantly obvious that Gallen's 2021 season is the outlier so far in his career as he's posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of his other four seasons. in 2023, Gallen finished with a 3.47 ERA and 20.4% strikeout rate, making him one of just six pitchers to have an ERA under 3.50 and a K-BB rate above 20% last season. The ratios are always solid, the strikeout rate is above average, and the volume is there. Gallen is an ace.

Kyle Bradish, BAL (88.4): Bradish was one of just seven pitchers in 2023 to pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout rate above 24%. But yet, he still feels undervalued. Bradish also started using his sinker more in favor of his four-seamer, which was a very encouraging move and also helped the groundball rate tick up. Bradish is an SP2 that you can likely draft at an SP3 price tag.

Michael King, SD (143.2): I'm a firm believer in the Michael King that we saw down the stretch last season after he transitioned to the rotation. King posted a stellar 2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5% walk rate, and 31.9% strikeout rate in his final seven starts of the season and was one of just five pitchers to have a sub-5% walk rate and a strikeout rate over 30% during that time frame. Given his diverse four-pitch mix, which contains two offerings with whiff rates around 40%, King is a great value pick here that could return a sizeable ROI.

Bailey Ober, MIN (155.7): After digging into Bailey Ober more, I've become more enticed by his ADP after pick 150. After posting a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts back in 2022, Ober recorded a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts last season with a 1.07 WHIP and 20.3% K-BB rate. While I'm slightly concerned by the lower groundball rates and don't believe there's a big ROI opportunity here, Ober feels like a safe option that could replicate his 2023 performance.

Hunter Brown, HOU (182.5): While Brown's ERA wound up just above five, he still recorded a 26.8% strikeout rate, 18.3% K-BB rate, and 4.27 xERA as a rookie, which should be intriguing for anyone in this range of drafts. Brown possesses plenty of additional upside too as he showed more swing-and-miss potential with his two breaking balls in the minors than he did last season. Don't be surprised if we see Brown finish the 2024 season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a K-BB rate of around 20%.

Nick Lodolo, CIN (244.1): The 2023 season was basically a lost season for Lodolo, who was limited to just seven unproductive starts. But I'd like to direct your attention back to 2022 when he finished the season with a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.7% walk rate, and 30% strikeout rate over his final 13 starts. Lodolo isn't as flashy as Hunter Greene, but he's able to miss bats at a high clip and does a better job at keeping the ball on the ground, which is huge at Great American Ball Park. I'm going to be scooping up post-200 ADP shares of Lodolo frequently during draft season this year.

Outside of those six names, I'm also trying to come out of every draft with one of Grayson Rodriguez, Kodai Senga, Eury Perez, and Bobby Miller. All are being drafted in the mid-SP2 range around pick 70 or so on average and all have the upside to produce fantasy ace-caliber seasons.

Favorite Post-200 ADP Targets: Brayan Bello, Cristopher Sanchez, Emmet Sheehan, Nick Lodolo, Kutter Crawford, Michael Wacha, Luis Severino, Jon Gray, AJ Smith-Shawver, Alex Cobb.

 

Starting Pitcher ADPs I'm Not Keen On

Blake Snell, FA: Listen, I understand that Blake Snell is one of the nastiest pitchers in the game and was lights out for most of the 2023 season, finishing with a 2.25 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in 180 innings. However, he also had the second-highest strand rate among qualified pitchers in the last three seasons along with the highest walk rate by 1.7%. I'm just not going to trust a pitcher with a 13.3% walk rate as my fantasy ace. All of Snell's ERA indicators were 3.44 or higher.

Walker Buehler, LAD (104.2): Under no circumstance am I going to be drafting Walker Buehler anywhere near his 104 ADP. Nope. No way. Not a chance in (censored). Buehler is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and his skills were declining even more after getting hurt in 2022 with an extremely hittable fastball (.365 BAA, .581 SLG) along with declines in his zone contact and whiff rates for the second consecutive season. I'm not saying Buehler can't still be a solid fantasy arm, but this ADP is way too high for me.

Dylan Cease, CHW (111.3): Maybe a trade would help a bit, but I'm not looking to use a top-120 pick on Dylan Cease. Outside of his 2022 season, Cease has been above a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in every other season and we saw his strikeout, whiff, and chase rates tick down in 2023 as well. If Cease fell closer to 150, I'd be okay taking him there, but that's unlikely to happen in many drafts.

Chris Sale, ATL (162.6): With Sale, there are more questions than answers these days. Can he even stay on the field enough to provide positive value at his ADP? He has pitched in a grand total of 161 innings over the last three seasons and hasn't reached the 25-start threshold since 2019. He's also a 3-pitch guy that is really a 2-pitch guy. Sale's changeup (13.1% usage) hasn't been an effective offering for him since 2018 and recorded a .304 BAA last season. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

Reid Detmers, LAA (230.9): This ADP isn't necessarily terrible as Detmers can provide a solid strikeout rate (26.1% in 2023). But outside of that, Detmers gets hit too hard, doesn't generate enough groundballs, and his fastball was a below-average pitch in 2023. There are plenty of other arms I like more in this range (see above).



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Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Bucky Irving

There were questions about where Oregon running back Bucky Irving would go in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was a smaller back -- sitting 5-foot-10, 190 pounds -- but he was a player who put up big numbers in his final two seasons with the Ducks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers eventually took a chance on Irving in the fourth... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookie Tight Ends You Must Have in 2024

With the draft and schedule release behind us, it’s time to try and pick out some potential sleepers and stashes we may be looking to add to our fantasy rosters this year. One position that historically underwhelms from a fantasy perspective during rookie campaigns is tight end. But, we saw Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta make... Read More


Kyren Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early Fantasy Football ADP Analysis For FFPC Leagues: Running Backs

It is never too early to check on fantasy football Average Draft Position reports. High-stakes competitors have already started drafting in seasonal formats on the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) platform. In this feature, I focus specifically on early ADP trends at running back. I have highlighted 10 notable RBs to consider from completed early... Read More


Kendre Miller - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Dynasty Price Check - Kendre Miller (2024)

The New Orleans Saints offense was supposed to take a step forward in 2023 with Derek Carr under center...until it didn't. Carr was essentially the same quarterback he's always been. It was the running game that held everybody back. The Saints averaged the second-fewest yards per carry (3.6) across the league, tallied just four carries... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Audric Estimé

We've heard the phrase running backs don't matter before. That's evident in the real-life NFL Draft, with only 12 running backs going in the first round since 2014. That list includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Sony Michel, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr... Read More


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Buys and Sells - Post NFL Draft Edition

When it comes to dynasty fantasy football leagues, one of the most intriguing aspects is the fluctuations in player value in the aftermath of the NFL Draft. Players once thought of as placeholders quickly rise draft boards, while stars who seemed secure become losers in an instant. Dynasty rankings were turned upside down following the... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers: ADP Analysis for 2024

Fantasy football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With early 2024 best ball drafts already taking place, we're digging into the ADP of fantasy football's most impactful players. NFL Network contributor and RotoBaller analyst LaQuan dives into the early ADP of some popular fantasy options. Find out which notable fantasy football contributors are rising up 2024 draft... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

Week 7's UFL action did not disappoint, as the game of the week between St. Louis and Birmingham came down to the wire and delivered some impressive fantasy outings. The Renegades grabbed their first win of the season in an explosive 47-point offensive showing, the Panthers featured two new quarterbacks, and the Brahmas won a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 8

Another 5-3 week is nothing to be upset about. Plus, that was a fun week to kick back and watch from a results standpoint. The Renegades grab their first win of the season in dominant fashion, the Stallions beat the Battlehawks in a game that lived up to the expectations and gave positive tidings for... Read More


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Early PPR Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts: Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Trey McBride, Malik Nabers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Hey, RotoBallers! The 2024 NFL Draft is over, and it's an exciting time for football as players are starting to report to offseason workouts. The heart of fantasy football draft season is around the corner. Week 1 will be here before we know it, and it's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy... Read More


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rookie/Free-Agent Draft Review: FFPC Deeper Targets

In the offseason and preseason, as soon as the NFL Draft is over, I eagerly jump into slow fantasy football drafts. I am a big fan of the slow draft format. It extends the fun over many days and always gives me something to look forward to throughout the day. Waking up to find out... Read More


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Second-Year Fantasy Football Players Who Will Break Out in 2024 - Sophomore Bounce-Back Candidates

For many years, fantasy football players tried their best to avoid rookies in drafts. Recently, it's become more common for rookies to make an impact. We've seen players like Ja’Marr Chase, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley finish in the top five at their positions. Even last year, we saw C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua emerge... Read More