2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Shortstop

 

Dynasty Rankings at Shortstop

Over the past few weeks, we have reviewed our dynasty fantasy baseball rankings for catcher and third base. Today we bring you the top dynasty / keeper league shortstops.

I bet over the last few years people have missed the early 2000's. At least in regards to fantasy shortstops. There was a time when Jeter, Nomar and Tejada were borderline first round picks. However, there is hope on the horizon. There are a lot of young talented prospects at the shortstop position, and I have a feeling at least a few of them will pan out in 2015.

Below is my best attempt to rank the position going forward for the next five years or so.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles & rankings analysis to prepare for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!
 

Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

1) Ian Desmond, 29, WAS

2) Troy Tulowitzki, 30, COL

3) Xander Bogaerts, 22, BOS

4) Starlin Castro, 24, CHC

5) Jose Reyes, 31, TOR

*Scroll to bottom for why Hanley Ramirez is not ranked

My choice of Desmond over Tulowitzki is sure to be controversial. I stand by it though. When you have three 20/20 seasons in a row that's a great way to get my attention. In addition, Tulowitzki has trouble staying on the field while Desmond has been the picture of consistency.

That's not to say that I'm super down on Tulo. When he's on the field he's a superstar that transcends the position. If he wasn't injury prone, I'd be all in.

Bogaerts had a great start to the year. He just couldn't finish it that way. That's to be expected from a rookie. I was tempted to rank Bogaerts much lower, but there are reports that he is working on his conditioning. That has me dreaming on his potential, and you should be too.

Castro seems so old hat because he has been in the majors for five years now. That's what tends to happens when you're brought up as a 20 year old. Many are down on him due to a rough year in 2013. He was also caught stealing 50% of the time last year. I still believe in his long term ability though. The real question about Castro remains whether or not he will be a Cub. I feel a trade is likely, and his destination could drastically impact his value.

There are those who will argue that Reyes belongs even higher in my rankings. They may be right. I'm sure he'll do damage atop the potent Blue Jays lineup. I'm also sure that he has trouble remaining healthy and has seen a major decline in power. Regardless, he's still easily one of the top options at short.
 

Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

6) Elvis Andrus, 26, TEX

7) Addison Russell, 20, CHC

8) Carlos Correa, 20, HOU

9) Alcides Escobar, 28, KC

10) Jean Segura, 24, MIL

I can tell you straight off the bat that I much rather own the top three in this tier than the bottom two. There's a sizable drop off of potential after Correa. Not to say that the next guys on the list aren't own-able. It's just if you want a guy to get excited about for the immediate future at shortstop you should draft from position eight or higher.

Last season was arguably Andrus' worst year statistically. That's exactly why I'd be buying. I believe that many of his issues can be blamed on the Rangers' lack of offense last year. A fairly unlucky BABIP certainly didn't help either. Look for Andrus to rebound as a guy who can give you 80 runs, and 30 steals over the next couple of years.

It was tough deciding between Russell and Correa for the next spot. I settled on Russell because he's regarded as less of a risk by scouts, and the potential to hit 25 homers as a shortstop is no joke. Another exciting aspect of Russell's game is his speed. He could get the green light. Look for Russell to be up with the club as soon as this year if a Castro trade happens.

There is as much to get excited about for Correa as there is for Russell. He can hit for some power and has a good amount of speed.There are a two major reasons Correa is ranked lower than Russell though. He has had less major league seasoning than Russell, and he missed half of  his minor league season last year with a fractured fibula. Correa has a chance to make the Astros' roster out of spring training, but it's my personal opinion he'd better served with some more seasoning in the minor leagues.

Is Escobar going to continue to hit .280 going forward? I find it somewhat doubtful, but I also don't see him being a .260 hitter as his steamer projections suggest for next year. I see Escobar as a .275 hitter for the next few years who can give you anywhere from 20-30 steals a year. The Royals have a top prospect that is also a shortstop, but 19-year-old Raul Mondesi struggled in the minors last year. The job will be Escobar's for at least a few years.

Segura has had a huge drop in stock from 2013. That's more in perception than actual value in my opinion. I have a hard time being down on someone who had 40 stolen bases in their first major league season. I also have a hard time being down on someone who destroyed minor league pitching and has only played two full major league seasons. His stolen base success rate was down last season, but he was also hitting in front of the pitcher. Look for him to rebound this year as a guy who can give you 20 stolen bases as his floor every season.
 

Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

11) Jhonny Peralta, 32, STL

12) Jimmy Rollins, 36, LAD

13) Alexei Ramirez, 33, CWS

14) Danny Santana, 24, MIN

15) Erick Aybar, 30, LAA

Man, if it wasn't for  Santana I might as well name this tier the gray beards. The king of which is Peralta in my opinion. He was the poor man's Desmond last season, and I don't see why that can't continue for another few seasons. I also really like his ability to take a walk.

It says something that on a few other rankings I've seen Rollins didn't even make the top 20. Listen being 36 at one of the most physically taxing positions is a good reason not to rank him, but I have faith he has a good year or two left in him.  His counting stats should all be helped by the fact that he's playing in a much better offense now. He's a great win now piece, but be prepared with his replacement sooner rather than later.

Last year Ramirez had arguably his best offense year since 2008. Those numbers shouldn't be counted on again, especially not in the power and batting average departments. However, the White Sox have done a ton to improve this offseason. Hitting in the same lineup as Jose Abreu, Adam Laroche, and Melky Cabrera should help his run scored potential. Going forward, look at him as a guy capable of giving you double digits in both home runs and steals.

Santana was a personal favorite of mine last year. I will say his .405 BABIP seems totally unsustainable, but there may not be as much regression in batting average as you think. As evidenced by his steals in both the majors and minors, he has the speed to make up for some of the luck factor. Twins manager Paul Molitor also said Santana will report to spring training as a middle infielder. You're kidding yourself if you think that means anything except that he'll be the Twins starting shortstop.

Aybar hits for a decent average and can swipe bags in the double digits. His value is closely tied to being in the Angels' potent lineup. Once he hits free agency, his value will depend on which team signs him. At that point he will be 32. He's a suitable player while you wait for one of your younger options to develop.
 

Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

16) Francisco Lindor, 21, CLE

17) Marcus Semien, 24, OAK

18) J.J. Hardy, 32, BAL

19) Everth Cabrera, 28, FA

20) Chris Taylor, 24, SEA

Across three levels of the minor leagues last year Lindor hit .277/.337/.394 with 14 HR, 92 R, 71 RBI, and 30 SB. You really think Jose Ramirez is going to keep the starting job for that long with Lindor putting up those numbers? If you do, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Call me crazy but I really like what Semien brings to the table for the Athletics. I don't think there is any reason he can't reach double digits in both home runs and steals based on his limited sample last season. He should be able to cut down on the strikeout rate as well. I believe those were just growing pains since he was usually a much more patient hitter in the minors. Billy Beane may have been onto something when he traded for Semien this winter.

Hardy struggled offensively in 2014, and it's hard to tell if it was due age. I believe the power numbers should rebound a bit, but probably not enough to make him more than a place holder. His spike in strikeout rate last year also has me a bit worried about his long term prospects.

Cabrera has fallen far enough that he was non-tendered by the Padres. This says a lot about what the Padres think about Cabrera given their lack of other options at shortstop. Someone will scoop him up - it's just a matter of who. He has the ability to steal 30 bags in any given year, but I don't think he'll provide much else.

Taylor is in a battle with Brad Miller for the Mariners starting job, and he appears to be winning. I'm not in love with his strikeout percentage, but he's shown the ability to steal bags in the minors. In a full season of at-bats I could see him hitting .275 with 20-25 steals. That's the sort of player I think he could be for the Mariners for years if they give him the chance.
 

Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

21) Corey Seager, 20, LAD

22) Jose Iglesias, 24, DET

23) Andrelton Simmons, 25, ATL

24) Jordy Mercer, 28, PIT

25) Wilmer Flores, 23, NYM

Last season, Seager hit .333/.387/.569 with 22 HR, 99 R, 114 RBI, and six stolen bases in the minors. He isn't ranked higher because some scouts wonder if he can remain a shortstop long term. Reportedly, Seager has been invited to major league spring training. I'd still expect him to at least begin the year at Triple-A. If he can stick at the position and replicate his minor league success, he will quickly zoom up my rankings.

Iglesias missed all of last year with shin injuries. Most early reports say he should be good to play by opening day, but it's something to keep an eye on. I know it's hard to come back from a year of not playing, but I really like what Iglesias did in limited at-bats in 2013. The Tigers' lineup is also a great place to hit. Just don't expect power numbers from Iglesias.

Simmons was about league average for a shortstop last year, or potentially even worse. He doesn't have a ton of speed like a traditional fantasy shortstop, and the Braves are in the middle of an offensive rebuild. However, he is only a year removed from hitting 17 home runs. He definitely has some pop and I could see 10 or more home runs in the next couple of seasons. The Braves may also ask him to run more as a way to spark the offense.

Mercer profiles very similarly to Simmons. He'll hit about league average while providing you 10 home runs a season. The main difference between the two is that Mercer has more of a tendency to strikeout than Simmons. Mercer currently has the edge in terms of hitting in a better lineup, but the Pirates have a potential replacement breathing down his neck.

There all kinds of questions about Flores. One of those questions: does he have the tools to remain at shortstop? At the moment it seems like he will be the Mets' starting shortstop. While he's not overly exciting, there are some positives. Bouncing between the majors and Triple-A last season, he managed to hit a combined 19 home runs. He also has a track record of success at the Triple-A level. Just don't expect any speed from him. I see his ceiling as Jhonny Peralta.
 

Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keeper Shortstop Rankings

26) J.P. Crawford, 19, PHI

27) Tim Anderson, 21, CWS

28) Alen Hanson, 22, PIT

29) Nick Gordon, 19, MIN

30) Chris Owings, 23, ARI

Now we get to some guys that might be a few years away from the majors but are still highly regarded. One of those guys is Crawford who is the cousin of Carl Crawford. Last year between Low-A and High-A ball, Crawford hit .285/.375/.406 with 11 HR and 24 SB.

After the Rollins trade to the Dodgers, the shortstop position for the Phillies is currently being held down by Freddy Galvis. Galvis is not even close to being a Rollins equivalent let alone somebody who can block Crawford. He should be the regular starting shortstop for the Phillies soon. I just hope they don't rush his development.

Anderson should be ready to take over as soon as Ramirez can no longer man the position for the White Sox. Anderson slashed .301/.330/.470 with 11 HR, 71 R, 49 RBI, and 16 SB between High-A and Double-A last year. Even better, he's considered a great defender who should be able to remain at the position for a long time.

Hanson is the reason I'm worried about Mercer's job security. The saving grace for Mercer owners is that Hanson may be viewed as more of a second baseman due to some fielding issues. Hanson sure can contribute with his bat though, slashing .280/.326/.442 with 11 HR, 64 R, 58 RBI, and 25 SB at double-a last year. No matter where he ends up, he is worth watching.

Of the prospects listed, Gordon is probably the farthest from the majors. The Twins seem comfortable with Santana at short going forward, and Gordon needs some more seasoning. Still, the fact that Gordon stole 11 bags in only 57 games played last year is pretty eye opening. He hasn't yet played at the Low-A ball level though, so don't get overly excited. Monitor Gordon's development and see if he can turn into the shortstop version of his brother Dee Gordon.

Owings has yet to play a full season in the majors and injured his shoulder last year. Most of my ranking here is based upon what he did at Triple-A in 2013 when he hit 12 homers and stole 20 bags while hitting .330. Obviously, I'd like to see him replicate some of that success at the major league level, but that also means he needs to play a full season. How he bounces back from the shoulder surgery will have a big impact on his stock for the next few years.
 

Additional Notes

Ben Zobrist and Asdrubal Cabrera could both find themselves on this list. I believe Cabrera will be playing second for the Rays though, and Zobrist is a question mark at the moment. Both would probably find themselves in Tier 3 if they find themselves playing short for a few years.

Jung-Ho Kang has inked a deal with the Pirates. It's unclear where he will play, but he has been dominant in the Korean Baseball League. His natural position is shortstop, so it's possible that's where he will end up. Based on lack of samples of position players coming over from Korea, I'd put him in with the Tier 5 guys for now.

Hanley Ramirez is very purposely not ranked here. He may have another year of shortstop eligibility left but he's now an outfielder. I was attempting to rank only those who would stay at the position for at least a few years, and Bogaerts fits that bill much better than Hanley. If you want to rank Hanley go ahead and put him among the top tier for next year, but be prepared to find an immediate replacement for 2016.

That's all for shortstops. My outfield rankings will most likely be broken up into two parts. Look for it soon!

Until next time RotoBallers,

-Rek