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Dynasty Rankings at First Base
Over the past few weeks, we have gone through our dynasty fantasy baseball rankings for catcher, third base, and shortstop. Today we bring you the top dynasty / keeper league first basemen.
First Base is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball. There is an abundance of power to draft at first in the early, middle and late rounds of a dynasty draft. Also, since the majority of the game's top rated first base prospects are largely at Single-A or Double-A, most of the mashers you'll want to keep in mind for your draft are currently in the majors. With that in mind here are RotoBaller's first base tiers for dynasty leagues.
Editor's Note: Check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings, dynasty/keeper ranks & in-depth rankings analysis to get you ready for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!
Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
1) Paul Goldschmidt, 27, ARI
2) Anthony Rizzo, 25, CHC
3) Jose Abreu,27, CHW
4) Miguel Cabrera, 31, DET
5) Edwin Encarnacion, 31, TOR
Goldschmidt is one of the top offensive players in the game, not just at first base. I'm not the least bit worried about his broken hand, which should be fully recovered in advance of spring training. He's going to dominate the league for many more years to come.
The next four were all ridiculously hard to rank. You can make a case for any combination of the four. I settled on Rizzo being second due to age and my belief that he still has room to grow. There's not much to say about these hitters. They are the cream of the crop at first base in redraft or dynasty leagues.
Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
6) Freddie Freeman, 25, ATL
7) Victor Martinez, 35, DET
8) Joey Votto, 31, CIN
9) Adrian Gonzalez, 32, LAD
10) Albert Pujols, 34, LAA
Freeman is just outside of the top tier because he lacks the pure power of the others listed there. If he ever develops the ability to hit 30 or more home runs a year, he would make the jump to the first tier.
It seems weird to rank Martinez so high after I just ranked Cabrera in the first tier, but they both belong in the top ten. They should both get enough playing time to retain their first base eligibility, and both are elite hitters. Martinez's advanced age doesn't bother me for the next few years because first base is one of the least taxing positions in the game.
Maybe it's just my OBP league bias talking, but I love Votto. I know last year was not the most encouraging season, but I could easily see a return to a 20 home run season with an OBP over .400. If that happens, his owners should feel secure at first base for years to come.
Gonzalez has only failed to reach the 100 RBI plateau in one of his past eight seasons. In the season where he missed driving in 100 RBI, he had 99. He's really consistent, and the Dodgers keep surrounding him with a potent lineup.
Pujols was once the man to own at first base. While that's no longer the case, it says something that even in his decline I have him ranked in the second tier. Last season saw a return to form after a down year in 2013, and I believe Pujols can give us similar numbers for another few years.
Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
11) Carlos Santana, 28, CLE
12) Prince Fielder, 30, TEX
13) Brandon Belt, 26, SF
14) Ryan Zimmerman, 30, WAS
15) Matt Adams, 26, STL
This might be a case of being biased towards OBP leagues again, but Carlos Santana is still young enough where he can put up a handful of solid years at 1B. Obviously he was an amazing offensive catcher, but he was only a so-so first baseman last season. He's still young and has time to develop, but he does have competition for playing time from Brandon Moss. Regardless, both should get enough games at first base to remain eligible.
The only reason Fielder isn't in the second tier is the neck injury he suffered last year. There isn't any history to indicate how Fielder might perform after having his neck fused back together. I am on the cautiously optimistic side, but he is over 30, and we saw his power and groundball % moving in the wrong directions in previous years. I will feel more comfortable ranking him after seeing how he performs this year. If you're a risk taker, he could be a nice discounted draft pick.
Belt is a developing hitter who hit 12 home runs last year despite only receiving 235 at-bats. Just imagine what he could do in a full season. He does come with some red flags though, as his high strikeout rate will limit his batting average, and AT&T park will limit his power upside.
Zimmerman should benefit from shifting across the diamond to first base. A healthy Zimmerman at first should be able to provide more than 20 home runs while still hitting for average. As Jeff K pointed out in RotoBaller's composite 3B rankings, Zimmerman's seasonal averages make more attractive than our general opinion of him allows.
We were all very high on Adams when he first came onto the scene. At best, he could put up very similar numbers to Zimmerman over the course of 2015. At worst, he continues to struggle and get benched vs. LHP which limits his upside. His average fly ball distance dropped this year and his line drive percentage went up at the expense of fly balls. He's too young to be experiencing a decline in power, but his 2013 performance may led us to project his power to be more than it is.
Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
16) Chris Davis, 28, BAL
17) Lucas Duda, 28, NYM
18) Mike Napoli, 33, BOS
19) Brandon Moss, 31, CLE
20) Eric Hosmer, 25, KC
You know a position is deep when Chris Davis - who hit 53 home runs in 2013 - is listed at number 16. Davis has north of a 30 percent strikeout rate over his career. Unless he cuts down on the whiff rate, the power numbers aren't going to make up for it. Still, he is easily the most desirable of this tier with the highest upside.
Duda rewarded the faith the Mets showed in him when they traded Ike Davis by hitting 30 HR in the 2014 season. The power is legitimate. Just don't expect much else from Duda who is a career .248 hitter.
Napoli is a converted catcher like Santana. Unlike Santana, Napoli no longer really has time on his side. He's capable of some decent power numbers over the next couple years, but his age and past health issues hurt his ranking.
The move of Moss to the Indians benefits him in my opinion. I know the Indians aren't the best offensive team, but Progressive ballpark is a much more hitter friendly park, and Moss should find himself in fewer platoons. He will probably share first base duties with Carlos Santana, but there are enough at-bats to go around for both to do some damage.
I want to flat out give up on Hosmer, but I'll allow myself to be slightly influenced by his postseason. Or maybe it's the fact that he's one of the few first basemen who can eclipse 15 home runs and 10 steals. He still hasn't hit his prime, and if he can trade some groundballs for fly balls we could see a small breakout. Maybe the Royals signing Kendrys Morales will light a fire under him. Either way, with his age and upside, I can't bring myself to rank Hosmer any lower.
Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
21) Justin Morneau, 33, COL
22) C.J. Cron, 24, LAA
23) Pedro Alvarez, 27, PIT
24) Jon Singleton, 23, HOU
25) Adam LaRoche, 35, CHW
Morneau can still hit for power and average as shown by his resurgence last year. It doesn't hurt that he plays the majority of his games at Coors Field either. If you do draft him, be aware that his value is closely tied to starting in Colorado.
Cron had 11 home runs in very limited at-bats last year. The only issue for Cron is being blocked by Pujols at first. The Angels either need to find him a way to get more at-bats or trade him away.
Alvarez may have lost his third base job to Josh Harrison, but that's not because of his bat. Alvarez put up back-to-back seasons of at least 30 home runs in 2012 and 2013. If he's healthy this year, he should come close to repeating the power display. The average and OBP may end up hurting you, but he's a great source of power if you need it.
As I've mentioned in previous dynasty articles, the Astros are an exciting young team. If Singleton can cut down on his strikeout rate and increase his power numbers: look out. It also doesn't hurt that he's only 23.
Robin Ventura says he sees LaRoche playing two games a week at first. That's enough to remain eligible in 2016, but it could lead to eligibility concerns in future seasons. There's also his age to consider, although he should be in the league at least a few more years. If you're not overly concerned, LaRoche seems to always hit at least 20 home runs with 80 RBI, a solid BA and even better OBP.
Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
26) Kennys Vargas, 24, MIN
27) Michael Morse, 32, MIA
28) Chris Carter, 28, HOU
29) Billy Butler, 28, OAK
30) Joe Mauer, 31, MIN
Vargas is the man the Twins will turn to at first when they realize they need more power out of the position. It'll be hard for them to do since they have team icon Mauer locked up until 2018, but they need to figure out a way. I'm not sure I have a ton of faith in Vargas, but I'd like to see what he can do with more at-bats. He's easily the biggest potential mover in this tier.
Morse had an up and down season in 2014, but the overall stat line looked good. I'm somewhat concerned because he only had two home runs after the All-Star break. Despite that, I think he has a few more good years of providing your team some power and a decent batting average to go with it.
Last year Carter finished the season tied for second in home runs in the league. So why is he so low on my list? Simply put, he strikes out too much. There's also a good chance he ends up losing at-bats to Jon Singleton or Matt Dominguez if he struggles. Still, a guy who can hit 35 home runs in a single season is worth a shot later in the draft if you can tolerate the strikeouts.
Billy Beane's talent evaluation is usually pretty good. I trust that Butler will be a productive player for the Athletics. However, Butler hasn't flashed anything to indicate that he is more than a serviceable first baseman.
Once the cream of the catching crop, Mauer is now someone you barely want to own as a first baseman. His only real value comes in the on base department. Even then, he's a drag on the other categories.
Tier 7 - Dynasty / Keeper First Base Rankings
31) Mark Teixeria, 34, NYY
32) Logan Morrison, 27, SEA
33) Yonder Alonso, 27, SD
34) Kendrys Morales, 31, KC
35) James Loney, 30, TB
Teixeria is almost the opposite of Mauer. He's still capable of providing 20 home runs if he can stay healthy, but I believe his days of hitting for average are behind him. Still, in a power starved game, he's not a terrible play.
I remember when everyone thought Alonso would be the next big thing at first base along with Rizzo. Things didn't really turn out that way. Morrison has shown a lot of pop in the minors. We need to see what he can do in a full season of at-bats.
You're taking a chance on the upside of youth with Morrison and Alonso.With Morales and Loney, you already know what you're getting. Towards the end of a draft that's not always a bad thing.
Until next time RotoBallers...
-Rek
