X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Yu Darvish to the Padres: Fantasy Impact

Starting pitcher Yu Darvish was traded from the Chicago Cubs to the San Diego Padres ahead of the 2021 MLB season. Brian Entrekin evaluates the fantasy baseball impact of this deal.

The holidays must have been excellent in the Preller household since Padres GM, A.J. Preller is in quite the giving mood to his team's fan base. Over the last few days, Preller has traded for Blake Snell, signed KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, and now is trading for 2020 N.L. Cy Young runner up Yu Darvish. The Padres have one of the deeper farm systems in major league baseball, and Preller has used that to strengthen his already strong team. A Padres team reached the NLCS last season, and many already expected them to contend again in 2021. 

Most thought Preller and the Padres were done making moves for starting pitching after the Snell trade, but nope, he wanted more by trading for Darvish. Darvish is coming off a season where he finished runner up to Trevor Bauer for the Cy Young. He was flawless for the Cubs and now becomes the 1A to Snell’s 1B in the Padres rotation. A starting rotation that consists of Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, and Adrian Morejon

Darvish will not be coming to San Diego alone as his personal catcher in 2020; Victor Caratini will be apart of the seven-player trade. Going to the Windy City is RHP Zach Davies and minor leaguers Reginald Preciado, Yeison Santana, Owen Caissie, and Ismael Mena. The trade has significant implications in real life baseball as the Padres try to contend with World Series Champion Dodgers and there are fantasy implications as well. Let’s look at what Yu Darvish joining the Padres means for the upcoming 2021 fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Darvish Brings Dominant Stuff to San Diego

Before we get into all the good that is Yu Darvish, let’s briefly discuss a few of the negatives that have already been mentioned. Darvish will turn 35 years old in the upcoming season. In pitching terms, that is old. The other negative talking point is Darvish’s injury history. He has had Tommy John surgery twice, last time in 2016, and was battling right triceps tendinitis in 2018. He has been injury-free for two seasons now and has tweaked his mechanics along the way that appear to have helped with Darvish’s injury concerns. Age can lead to more injuries, but let’s trust what we have seen in the last two seasons and shoot for the best. 

Speaking of the best, Darvish was nearly the best pitcher in the National League last season. In 12 starts, he threw 76 innings (6.3 IP/start) with a 2.01 ERA and a 2.82 xFIP. It keeps getting better when digging deeper as he had his second straight season with a strikeout rate over 30%, a walk rate of 4.7%, and an 8.8% HR/FB. All of this led to an 8-3 record and runner-up for the NL Cy Young. 

“Well, it was a shortened season. We have to take it with a grain of salt.” I can already hear this crowd as well, the shortened season crowd. Ok then, let’s take a look at bigger sample size.

In 2019, Darvish was having some struggles to start the season, so he went into the lab to determine what was going wrong. He noticed a few mechanical issues and a pitch mix issue, so he made the necessary changes, which resulted in a strong finish to 2019. He carried the changes over to 2020. If we combine the game logs from his transformation at the all-star break in 2019 to the end of 2020, we have a 25 game sample size where he threw 157.2 innings. Over those 25 starts, he had a 2.40 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, 34.6% K-rate, and the most impressive part is he had a 3.4% BB-rate. 

The pitch mix change was more impressive, especially for a pitcher with eight pitches. He mainly uses four pitches, but the other four are always there to make things interesting. Before the resurgence in 2019, he was using his four-seam fastball a lot, and it turned out he was throwing it way too much. He eventually switched to his cutter being his most thrown pitch while also increasing his slider usage and decreasing his four-seam usage. 

When digging in more in-depth on the pitch results for Darvish, thanks to Alex Chamberlain’s pitch leaderboard, the change in pitch mix was outstanding. The cutter and slider have been much more effective at getting first-pitch strikes. Using the fastball later in the count has made it a better put-away pitch and has also limited the overall quality of contact (0% barrel last season) when it is put in play. Darvish is now utilizing his best pitch, the slider, to get ahead early in the count or to put batters away 54% of the time with a deserved strikeout rate of 46%.

There is much more to discuss regarding the pitch mix and the pitches’ quality, but know the cutter is getting ahead of batters. Simultaneously, the four-seam fastball has become more effective, and the slider is an elite pitch that is filthy whenever used by Darvish. 

 

2021 Fantasy Impact

Darvish should be the ace-like pitcher we have come to expect for the Padres. It should be noted that part of the trade was the inclusion of his “personal catcher,” Victor Caratini, which is a big deal. Caratini caught all 12 of Darvish’s starts in 2020, but the change was made in 2019 and the results were quite telling.

2019 Catcher Splits

Caratini also favors Darvish’s pitch mix changes by throwing more cutters. Not just a defensive catcher, Caratini is also a plus for the Padres as he brings a decent batting average, a little pop, can play multiple positions, and will be able to give Austin Nola a day off every fifth game.

Darvish moves from Wrigley Field, the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2020 according to ESPN park factors, while Petco Park was the 10th-most pitcher-friendly. In 2019, Petco was the third-best pitcher’s park, while Wrigley was eighth. However you break it down, he will still be in a pitcher-friendly park. Darvish will be moving from an NL Central that was one of the easiest divisions to pitch in last season and heads to the NL West that does not scare anyone a ton outside of the Dodgers and the occasional trip to Coors Field.

Steamer likes Darvish for 2021, although not enough to post the insane numbers of 2020. A 3.72ERA with a 29% strikeout rate in 31 starts is still solid. His current December NFBC Draft Champions ADP is 18.5, making him the fifth pitcher off the board. To some, Darvish may be going too high as drafters are picking him for his career year. He should still be an ace for the 2021 season and should be taken early on in drafts. I prefer the middle to end of Round 2, but if you want Darvish on your team, you will have to be aggressive. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Jordan Addison

Pleads Guilty to Lesser Offense, Gets Fine and Probation
Jordan Mims

Titans Add Backfield Depth With Jordan Mims
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Believed to be Recovered From Shoulder Injury
Najee Harris

Chargers Place Najee Harris on NFI List
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF