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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 18 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 18 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 18 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Detroit Lions.
The visual below shows offenses from the Green Bay Packers to the New England Patriots.
The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders.
Week 18 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 18 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Olamide Zaccheaus vs. Andrew Booth Jr.
Since Week 12, Olamide Zaccheaus trailed Terry McLaurin in expected fantasy points per game among their receivers and tight ends. McLaurin averaged 14.7 expected fantasy points per game, scoring four more than the expected numbers (18.7 PPR/G).
Meanwhile, Zaccheaus trailed McLaurin with 10.5 expected fantasy points per game, with 1.5 more fantasy points scored (12.0). Zaccheaus's expected fantasy points numbers suggest we should value him as a boom-or-bust WR4, especially considering Jayden Daniels is the quarterback.
Zaccheaus faces the Cowboys, who use the 13th-most Cover 3 and the 10th-most Cover 4. He posted mediocre numbers against Cover 3, with a 22 percent target rate and 2.14 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Zaccheaus has been dominant versus Cover 4, evidenced by a 36 percent target rate and 2.92 yards per route run.
Though it's a small sample of 36 routes versus Cover 4, Zaccheaus bests McLaurin in target rate (23 percent) and yards per route run (1.98). Interestingly, McLaurin has been efficient with 3.28 yards per route run against Cover 3, yet only a 20 percent targets per route run rate.
There's the potential for the Commanders to lean on the ground game since the Cowboys allow the sixth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Weeks 10-17. Meanwhile, the Commanders' run blocking generated the eighth-best adjusted yards before contact during Weeks 10-17.
If we thought Week 17 was murky with several running backs and quarterbacks missing due to season-ending injuries, Week 18 will be more of the same, including teams potentially sitting starters. Though the Commanders have a playoff spot locked up, they could be the sixth or seventh seed, depending on the outcome of the Packers' game.
Zaccheaus projects to face Andrew Booth Jr., allowing the most fantasy points and yards per route. It's a small sample for Booth since he played limited snaps before Week 17. However, one should ride Zaccheaus's hot streak of consecutive top-12 finishes as a WR4 with touchdown upside.
Adam Thielen vs. Dee Alford
The veteran posted the 13th-highest fantasy point total of his career in Week 17, with an efficient performance by catching five of six targets for 110 yards and two scores. In Weeks 12-17, Thielen ranked 31st in expected fantasy points per game with the 22nd-best first-read target share.
The Falcons use a mixture of zone coverage (No. 18) and man (No. 20), with the ninth-highest rate of Cover 3 and the second-most Cover 6. Thielen hasn't fared well against Cover 3, with a 19 percent target rate and 1.41 yards per route run with no data against Cover 6 since teams rarely use it.
Though the coverage-based numbers don't look favorable, he should fare well against his WR/CB matchup. Thielen projects to face Dee Alford, allowing the third-most fantasy points per route and seventh-most yards per route run. Among 40 qualified slot cornerbacks, Alford allows the 34th-most yards per slot coverage snap. Thielen plays in the slot over 70 percent of the time, potentially taking advantage of this matchup to mess with the Falcons' playoff chances.
Over the past five games, the top receivers against the Falcons averaged 11.4 targets, 7.4 receptions, 92.4 receiving yards, and 21.6 PPR/G. The usage for Thielen suggests a WR2/3, and we should trust the veteran to give us a boom performance in Week 18.
Josh Downs vs. Jarrian Jones
Unfortunately, Josh Downs hasn't been as reliable over the past several weeks, ranking third on the team in expected fantasy points per game (10.1), tied with Kayshon Boutte in Weeks 12-17. Michael Pittman Jr. averaged 12.3 with Alec Pierce at 11.6 in Weeks 12-17.
In Weeks 10-17, the Jaguars used the fourth-most man coverage behind the Lions, Patriots, and Steelers. Downs has been beating man coverage, evidenced by a 25 percent target rate and 2.57 yards per route run. He earns a 31 percent target rate, with 2.25 yards per route run.
The visual below shows the top Colts pass-catchers by man and zone coverages.
Downs projects to face Jarrian Jones, the Jaguars slot cornerback. Jones allows the 30th-lowest fantasy points per route and 69th-lowest yards per route run. That said, the Week 18 WR/CB matchup score for Downs leans in his favor because he's an efficient target earner and producer on the season.
One stat to monitor with Jones involves him allowing the second-highest missed tackle rate among qualified cornerbacks, meaning Downs could make big plays by forcing missed tackles as a receiver.
There's a chance that Anthony Richardson could play in Week 18, but fantasy managers will hope for Joe Flacco to play again. The Jaguars and Colts game projects to have the fourth-highest over/under in Week 18, so we could have a potential shootout.
Week 18 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Romeo Doubs vs. Jaylon Johnson
The Packers will battle for the sixth or seventh seed while two other NFC North teams will play for the conference No. 1 seed. Romeo Doubs reached 10 or more targets in Week 17 against the Vikings. It was the 12th time the Packers targeted a receiver more than 10 times in a game during the 2022-2024 season. Doubs is tied for the team lead with three games with double-digit targets.
Doubs led the team in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 12-17, with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed about two points behind. The Packers have been leaning on the run game, especially during neutral game scripts, with the second-highest rush rate behind the Eagles.
With the run-heavy approach, the Packers spread the ball to multiple receivers. Unfortunately, the Packers distribute the targets around, and none of the receivers garner high-end target rates.
The Bears used the second-highest rate of zone coverage in Weeks 10-17, though they allowed the third-most fantasy points per dropback against zone. Meanwhile, the Bears pass defense used the second-most Cover 3 in Weeks 10-17 behind the Buccaneers.
Doubs has been mediocre against zone coverage, evidenced by a 23 percent target rate and 1.92 yards per route run. However, Doubs performed better versus Cover 3, with a 25 percent target rate and 2.33 yards per route run.
Doubs projects to face Jaylon Johnson, allowing the fourth-lowest fantasy points per route and the eighth-lowest yards per route run. The Packers project as 10-point favorites in Week 18, hinting at them leaning on the run game and causing fewer pass attempts than usual. Be careful with Doubs in Week 18.
DJ Moore vs. Carrington Valentine
Maybe there's recency bias because it's worrisome to fade a receiver with WR1-type usage in DJ Moore. He ranked 10th in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 12-17 behind Tee Higgins and Justin Jefferson. Moore bested Keenan Allen's 16.8 expected fantasy points, but both have garnered elite usage.
The Packers used the highest rate of zone coverage in Weeks 10-17 while allowing the eighth-lowest fantasy points per dropback. They used the second-highest rate of Cover 2 and the sixth-most Cover 3 in Weeks 10-17.
When filtering by Cover 2 and 3, Moore produces below-average yards per route run (1.52), with a mediocre 21 percent target rate. Allen has been the second-highest target earner versus Cover 2 and 3, with a 23 percent target rate behind DeAndre Carter's 29 percent targets per route rate. Furthermore, Allen produced a similar yards per route run at 1.52 versus Cover 2 and 3.
Though the Packers haven't had Jaire Alexander healthy for most of the season, Carrington Valentine has been solid. Valentine allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per route and the 25th-lowest yards per route run.
Over the past five games, the top receiver facing the Packers averaged eight targets, 5.8 receptions, 64.2 receiving yards, and 17 PPR/G. The only relevant receivers involve Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12-10-83) and Tyreek Hill (9-6-83-1), with others including Tim Patrick, Dante Pettis, and Jalen Nailor.
The Bears have the second-lowest implied team total behind the Chiefs since Kansas City plans to play Carson Wentz at quarterback. We don't recommend sitting Moore in Week 18, but he projects to underperform against the Packers' best healthy cornerback.
Best of luck this week in your playoff matchups!
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