WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 15 (2024)

December 12, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 15 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 15 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses from Arizona to Detroit.

The visual below shows offenses from Green Bay to New England.

The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders.

Week 15 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.

Week 15 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Jakobi Meyers vs. Dee Alford

In Weeks 10-14, Jakobi Meyers ranks 12th in expected fantasy points per game (16.4) with the 28th-best first-read target share at 29.1 percent. Besides Brock Bowers with a 31.8 percent first-read target share (No. 15) and eighth in expected fantasy points per game (17.8) in Weeks 10-14, Meyers has been a focal point of the Raiders' passing offense.

Meyers faces the Falcons, who run the 11th-most zone coverage, with the seventh-most Cover 3 and the second-highest rate of Cover 6. His 23 percent target per route rate and 2.05 yards per route don't wow us against zone coverage. Meyers' numbers look similar when filtering to Cover 3 and Cover 6, evidenced by his 24 percent target rate and 1.99 yards per route.

The visual below shows the team defenses allowing the most fantasy points to receivers in the slot and out wide.

The Falcons allow the most fantasy points to receivers out wide, where Meyers plays about two-thirds of the time. Meyers projects to face Dee Alford, who allows the most fantasy points per route run and the eighth-highest yards per route.

Though there are quarterback concerns for the Raiders with Aidan O'Connell injured, trust in Meyers' volume as a WR2 given the high expected fantasy points hinting at WR1-type usage.

Darnell Mooney vs. Decamerion Richardson

Drake London vs. Jack Jones

Since Week 10, Drake London ranks 10th in expected fantasy points (17.3) with 14 PPR/G, meaning he has been underperforming his usage. Meanwhile, Darnell Mooney ranks 44th in expected fantasy points per game (12.2) with 11.1 PPR/G in Weeks 10-14.

London and Mooney run routes out of the slot around 40 percent of the time, where the Raiders have been most vulnerable. The Raiders allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers behind the Texans, Chiefs, and Bills.

The visual below shows the team coverage sorted by percentage of man defense.

The Raiders use man coverage 32.2 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the league. They play the highest rate over Cover 0 at 9.7 percent while ranking 20th in Cover 1 usage at 21.1 percent. That's notable because the Raiders will likely be blitzing and bringing pressure against Kirk Cousins, forcing London and Mooney to win in one-on-one matchups.

Thankfully, Cousins has two high-end to near-elite receivers that can win in man coverage. London rocks a 38 percent target per route rate (No. 5) while producing 2.68 yards per route run (No. 21) against man coverage among WR/TE with 25 routes. Mooney doesn't garner the per-route volume (25 percent) like London against man coverage but still rocks an above-average 2.94 yards per route run (No. 16).

The visual below shows the top Falcons' receivers with 25 routes run against man coverage, including their Average Separation Scores.

London has been better at separating against man coverage with a 0.033 Average Separation Score compared to -0.057 for Mooney. If the Falcons can limit pressure against Cousins and allow him to feed London and Mooney, they should continue to feast against man coverage.

Terry McLaurin vs. Kool-Aid McKinstry

The Saints run the 11th-most man coverage, with the ninth-highest rate of Cover 1. Regarding zone coverages, they use Cover 2 at the second-highest rate.

Terry McLaurin has been the most productive versus man coverage, evidenced by a 1.77 yards per route with a 23 percent target rate among the Commanders' top pass catchers. Against Cover 2, McLaurin garnered a 25 percent target rate and a 1.81 yards per route. The volume should give us confidence.

The matchup looks like a juicy one based on the team-level data. The Saints allow the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers out wide, McLaurin plays over 70 percent of the time. McLaurin projects to face Kool-Aid McKinstry, who has seen more playing time over the past few weeks. McKinstry allows the 45th-most yards per route run, but the 72nd-most fantasy points per route.

Though the individual matchup doesn't look fruitful, McLaurin boasts an above-average Average Separation Score against man coverage, ranking 33rd among all WR with 25 routes.

Monitor the Saints' defense because they brought the fourth-highest pressure rate in Weeks 10-14. The visual below shows the team offense and defense data sorted by defensive pressure rate in Weeks 10-14.

When pressured, Jayden Daniels ranks 22nd in adjusted yards per attempt 32nd in adjusted completion rate, and 29th in completion rate over expected (-8.9 percent). However, Daniels boasts the highest pass rate over expected against pressure. He also scrambles the most among all quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.

If Daniels struggles to pass against pressure and the game script goes as expected with the Commanders as 7.5-point favorites, then the passing volume could be lower than expected for McLaurin. That's one of the downside scenarios for the Commanders' receiving options.

Week 15 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Tank Dell vs. Jalen Ramsey

In Weeks 10-14, Tank Dell ranks 64th in expected fantasy points per game (9.8), with the 57th-highest first-read target share at 21.3 percent. Nico Collins has been the dominant option, evidenced by his 10th-highest first-read target share (33.8 percent) and seventh-best expected fantasy points per game (17.8).

In Weeks 11-14 with Collins healthy, the Texans increased their neutral game script pass rate to 65 percent (No. 5) compared to the fourth lowest (49 percent) in Weeks 6-10 without Collins. Theoretically, the neutral script pass rate should favor the Texans' pass catchers, but it's flowing mainly through Collins.

The Dolphins use the 12th-most zone coverage, with the fifth-highest rate of Cover 2 (20.7 percent) and 12th-most Cover 3 (31.7 percent). Dell has been underwhelming with an 18 percent target per route rate and 1.28 yards per route run versus zone coverage.

The visual below shows the Texans' pass catchers against zone coverage, with a minimum 25 percent route rate or higher.

Meanwhile, Collins destroys zone coverage, with the 16th-best target rate and the third-highest yards per route run among receivers and tight ends with 25 routes. That suggests it's a neutral-to-negative matchup for Dell compared to Collins.

Dell projects to face Jalen Ramsey, allowing the 30th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 56th-ranked yards per route run. Over the past five games, the top receiver against the Dolphins averaged 8.8 targets, six receptions, 64.2 receiving yards, and 16.9 PPR/G. The numbers dip if we toss out Jayden Reed's three receptions for 24 yards and two scores.

There's a small chance Dell and Collins could eat like Davante Adams (11-9-109-1) and Garrett Wilson (10-7-114-0). However, there's a closer gap in usage for Adams and Wilson compared to Collins and Dell. The other way this could go wrong relates to the Dolphins and Texans game projecting for the second or third highest over/under at 46.5 to 47 in Week 15.

Be cautious with Dell based on the usage, matchup, and failure to flash the spike performances this season.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Pat Surtain II

Michael Pittman Jr. ranked 41st in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-14, with one of the lower neutral game script pass rates. In Weeks 8-14, the Colts rank 22nd in neutral game script pass rate, increasing by three percentage points compared to Weeks 1-7.

Unless the Colts move Josh Downs (assuming health) and Pittman around the formation to avoid Surtain like the Broncos did with Jerry Jeudy, it's safe to downgrade the receivers in this matchup. The Broncos use man coverage at the fifth-highest rate and the seventh-most Cover 1.

Unfortunately, Pittman struggles against man coverage, evidenced by a 22 percent target rate and 1.20 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Adonai Mitchell and Downs have been the most productive options for the Colts against man coverage. Mitchell ranks 13th in yards per route run (3.00), with Downs at 2.51 (No. 24) versus man defenses.

How does Anthony Richardson fare against man? He ranks 28th in adjusted yards per attempt, 37th in adjusted completion rate, and 27th in completion rate over expected among the 42 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks in 2024.

Though the Broncos allow the second-most fantasy points to outside receivers, it mostly came in the Browns and Broncos' matchup. Surtain has been one of the elite shutdown cornerbacks, allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per route and the second-fewest yards per route run.

Be careful with Pittman based on the Week 15 WR/CB matchup, especially since he struggles to separate against man coverage. Pittman ranks 91st in Average Separation Score, behind Mitchell and Downs versus man coverage.

Best of luck this week!

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