Week 6 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

October 9, 2014

Edward G. analyzes the Week 6 NFL matchups, and provides fantasy football start/sit advice. Set your optimal Week Five lineups with his quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends & running backs matchups.

Welcome to Week 6 of NFL and fantasy football action, RotoBallers. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 6 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should hopefully help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.

Colts @ Texans - Thursday 10/9 @ 8:25 EST

Matchups We Love

Ahmad Bradshaw - Houston's run defense has fallen a long way down this year compared to past seasons. Ahmad Bradshaw is finally getting the majority of the touches in the Colts backfield, and as long as that's continuing, he's got RB1 upside on a week-to-week basis. With a matchup like this, especially on Thursday night where games tend to be blowouts and run-heavy, I'm thinking it's going to be the Bradshaw Show.

Arian Foster - Speaking of run-heavy Thursday nights, Arian Foster is up against one of this season's worst run defenses, as the Colts have allowed the eighth-most YPC in the league. Assuming that the Texans aren't blown out of the game by the end of the first half, Foster should be seeing a workload, and showing us the productivity that comes along with extra touches. Even if the game does get out of hand, the Colts are among the league's worst when it comes to covering receivers out of the offensive backfield, so Foster might see some extra work in the passing game. Alfred Blue may be sprinkled in, but is merely a handcuff.

Colts Defense - Indianapolis's defense is facing the super-conservative Houston offense, which presents a really great opportunity to blow them out of the water and put up a 12+ point game, especially if they can force Fitzpatrick to have to make plays with his arm.

Matchups We Hate

Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins - The Colts are currently among the league's best at stopping opposing wideouts with each of Vontae Davis and Greg Toler playing at a high levels.

Notable Players

Andrew Luck - The Houston defense is riddled with holes all over the secondary. Luck's matchup is good, but considering the short week and that this game might lose its competitiveness early, there's a good chance that Luck's night might end early. Not that it's any reason to not play him this week, though, as he should be slinging the ball to T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne often making them solid starts.

Trent Richardson - Speaking of days ending early, if the Colts do manage to find themselves way ahead (as has been the Thursday night trend), Bradshaw could be left to sit (but not until he catches two touchdowns, of course). If that's the case, Richardson would get the ball to close out the game, and he might be able to put together a decent night.

Steelers @ Browns - Sunday 10/12 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Ben Roethlisberger - Cleveland's pass defense has been dreadful this season. It's hard to imagine that a team with Joe Haden on it could be doing so poorly, but as it's turned out, Haden has actually been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. That makes Roethlisberger a prime candidate for a big game with his #1 wideout matching up against one of the league's worst pass defenses.

Antonio Brown - Continuing on about Joe Haden, Cleveland is actually currently the worst in the league against opposing team's top receivers (when adjusted for opponents). It's just gotten that bad down there. As a result, Antonio Brown has an incredibly potent matchup. Unfortunately Markus Wheaton hasn't done much recently to warrant a start.

Le'Veon Bell - And one more thing to pile on about the Cleveland defense: they've been horrible against the run. Only one member of the Browns defensive line (including backups) even has a positive grade thus far on the season for run blocking on PFF, and they've given up the third-most YPC of any team in the league. If this game gets out of hand LeGarrette Blount could get some garbage time work, but isn't a realistic option.

Matchups We Hate

Browns Defense and Steelers Defense - These are two offenses that are able to move the ball; I wouldn't want to take my chances with either defense.

Notable Matchups

Ben Tate - Tate has a very favorable matchup this week, but I have a hard time fully endorsing him here. With Tate's injury history, the Browns would be wise to avoid a full load, especially since they can make use of the future greatest running back of all time Isaiah Crowell.  I mean, you know, if they want to. Getting back to Tate though, he's got legitimate RB1 upside this week, especially considering that the Steelers have been bad against both the run and pass-catching running backs. Terrance West has been passed on the depth chart by Crowell and can be safely dropped in most leagues.

Patriots @ Bills - Sunday 10/12 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Fred Jackson - Assuming Jackson is playing, there's a good chance he becomes the lead running back in the Buffalo offense, especially after C.J. Spiller was benched last week. The Patriots run defense has been in the bottom quarter of the league when adjusted to opponents, and they've allowed the 12th-most YPC so far to running backs. The Patriots have also allowed 50 yards in the air per game to running backs so far this season, which is great news for Jackson, especially since he's been the main passing down back for the Bills. Even if Spiller does get playing time, Jackson looks like the guy who's going to make the most of it.

Matchups We Hate

Bills Defense - Although I'm not endorsing any of the Patriots as Matchups We Love , that doesn't change the fact that they'll likely find a way to score somehow, and possibly a lot. The problem with the Patriots is that we have no way of guessing whom exactly it will be that reaches the end zone in Buffalo on Sunday.

Notable Matchups

Julian Edelman - Edelman has a great matchup this week, but he hasn't been showing the efficiency that you would hope for. It's totally possible for Edelman to put up a solid WR2 week, but that would depend on Tom Brady being able to hit Edelman often. Needless to say, Brady has been shaky at best this year and is a risky start.

Rob Gronkowski - The Bills have been one of the best teams in the league so far against tight ends, despite going up against Martellus Bennett and Antonio Gates already. Gronkowski is another level beyond either of those two guys, but with the up-and-down Tom Brady, and the great tight end coverage the Bills have, it might be one of those weeks where Gronkowski is more dependent on getting into the end zone than you'd like.

Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen - the Bills have been solid against the run for the most part, so it may be a long day for Ridley. He should get his carries, but may not get much done unless he finds the end zone. Vereen always has a better chance in PPR leagues catching passes out of the backfield, and is a solid but not spectacular start.

Panthers @ Bengals - Sunday 10/12 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Mohamed Sanu - This is based on of the assumption that A.J. Green will be sidelined this weekend. If that's the case, Sanu is up against one of the league's worst outside coverage units. Neither of Carolina's starting corners has been better than terrible this season. If A.J. Green does end up playing, then he's your guy.

Giovani Bernard - The Panthers are struggling to deal with running backs right now. They're allowing the highest YPC in the league (5.4), averaging seven receptions and 50 yards to RBs per game, and best of all, keeping opponents in games by allowing them to run the ball more. Bernard's matchup is solid, as long as Jeremy Hill doesn't steal a lot of carries.

Matchups We Hate

I don't see anything in this game to make me want to sit a player that would otherwise be starting. I think it's clear that the Carolina running backs are a situation to avoid, with injuries to DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Darrin Reaves. Stewart may play, or Fozzy Whittaker and Chris Ogbonnaya may carry the load. Avoid them all.

Notable Players

Kelvin Benjamin - I think I'm just going to note Benjamin's name, along with the height of the corners he's facing, every week.  For Week 6, it's 5'10'' and 5'11'' while Kelvin towers at 6'5". The only reason Benjamin isn't getting matchup love this week is because these two corners have actually been playing well. Needless to say he's Cam Newton's top receiving option weekly.

Greg Olsen - One of the things the Bengals have struggled with so far is defending tight ends, but with the return of Vontaze Burfict, their best coverage (and everything else) linebacker, it's hard to know what to expect out of this matchup. It's not enough to cause you to sit Olsen, but it is enough to make you consider your options.

Jaguars @ Titans - Sunday 10/12 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Neither team has the ability to take over its opponent's weakness on paper.

Matchups We Hate

At the same time, neither team has the ability to take the opponent out of the game either. The Titans quarterback situation (Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst) and running back productivity (Bishop Sankey, Shonn Greene) is a mess. It's tough to trust anyone as a reliable start, even with a favorable matchup on paper. And don't even think about starting Toby Gerhart, Denard Robinson or Storm Johnson - you'd be asking for a rough day at the office.

Notable Players

Justin Hunter - As of last week, Hunter seemed to have taken over the WR1 role on the Titans. The Jaguars, particularly against WR1s, struggle mightily, as all their starting outside cornerbacks are playing terribly, allowing an average of eight receptions for 85 yards per game.  But can you trust Hunter to start this week? Unless your FLEX is in constant limbo, you're likely better off sitting him than taking the risk.

Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson - You know who else has outside cornerbacks that struggle? The Titans do. Specifically Blidi Wreh-Wilson, who's given up 215 yards and three touchdowns across five games. On the other side, Jason McCourty has given up 409 yards and no touchdowns. That's 615 yards and three touchdowns from the outside cornerbacks in five games, an average of 103 yards and 0.6 touchdowns allowed, just from the outside cornerback's primary coverage area. The only question is: can you trust two rookie wideouts and their rookie quarterback to take advantage of the situation they're presented with? I'm willing to take my chances if I'm in a desperate situation, but I wouldn't be willing to sit anyone higher than my FLEX for Robinson/Hurns. Bortles becomes an interesting streaming option, but the Titans do have a good pass rush, which could limit his performance.

Packers @ Dolphins - Sunday 10/5 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson - It's unlikely that there will be a single matchup all season where benching Aaron Rodgers or Jordy Nelson is an actual option, especially now that Seattle has passed.

Lamar Miller - The Packers run defense has been terrible all season long, with just one of the front seven grading positively on PFF. Even though Knowshon Moreno is bound to be back this week, Miller getting touches is not a question. Even if Knowshon takes some away from him, it doesn't change that Miller will be productive with the touches he does receive.

Matchups We Hate

Mike Wallace - The Packers pass defense has been no joke this season. I'd be looking for other options this week.

Ryan Tannehill - That goes for Tannehill as well. The Packers have given up the seventh-fewest passing yards with the fifth-fewest average yards per throw, and you know they put their opponents in a position where they need to throw to win.

Dolphins Defense - Aaron Rodgers. Jordy Nelson. We've been over this.

Notable Players

Randall Cobb - The Dolphins have had some of the best slot cornerback play in the league so far, but that has come against sub-par competition. They've allowed some of the fewest receptions and lowest yardage from the position, but Cobb is a completely different threat than what they've faced to this point. This is a game where they can prove whether their level of play is for real or not, so I'd consider looking at another option if you happen to have another top-20 receiver to sub in for Cobb.

Knowshon Moreno - So I've endorsed Lamar Miller as a Matchup We Love, but not Knowshon. What's up with that? Well, we kind of don't know how Knowshon will be brought back into the game this week. Does he regain all of his touches immediately, or will he be eased in with a 12-carry game? It's hard to know, especially since Knowshon is much more of a volume back than a breakaway one. I'd consider him as a FLEX option, but be tentative.

Eddie Lacy - Lacy had a big game last week against Minnesota, and has an opportunity for another one again. You're starting him every week, unless you're absolutely loaded with RB options.

Lions @ Vikings - Sunday 10/5 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Golden Tate - If Megatron is down, and even if he's not, Tate's matchup is juicy. The Vikings are allowing plenty of yards on the outside and Tate's going to have plenty of opportunities.

Matthew Stafford - Speaking of teams allowing a lot of yards, Stafford's going to be having a field day against the Vikings defense. The Vikings are among the league's worst in rushing the passer, so Stafford is unlikely to be under duress much, leaving plenty of time to hit the wide open targets Minnesota is bound to leave up for grabs.

Lions Defense - Bridgewater throws a little bit of a wrench into picking the Lions defense here, but with how well they've been playing this season, there's a reasonable chance that the Lions defense will shut down the rookie quarterback.

Matchups We Hate

Teddy Bridgewater, Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson - The Detroit Lions have allowed the fewest yards per game this season. As one of the best defenses in the league going up against a rookie quarterback and his arsenal of weapons, which includes a solid veteran and a still-learning wideout, there's a good chance the Lions manage to expose Bridgewater for the rookie he is. If that happens, it's likely that Jennings and Patterson will suffer too. Jarius Wright has been peppered with targets recently, but falls into the same situation here.

Matt Asiata - The Lions run defense is currently the third-best in the league in raw yardage, third-best on PFF, and second-best on Football Outsiders. They're very good across all spectrums, whether it's DVOA, Run Grades or just yards. It's not a great matchup for Asiata-- he'll be very touchdown-dependent this week. This isn't a great week to try Jerick McKinnon either for the reasons stated.

Notable Players

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell - It's an unknown whether Bush will be playing or not this week, but if he is, he's got a very favorable matchup. The Vikings rushing defense has been exposed twice when going up against decent run games. If Bush is active, he's likely to expose it a third time. If Bell is active, the same goes for him. If both are active, then it's kind of a toss-up.