October 31, 2015

Zach Wilkens analyzes the Week 8 NFL matchups for 2015, and provides fantasy football start/sit advice (part 1). Set your optimal lineups based on fantasy football matchups.

Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 8 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 8 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

One important note to keep in mind this week - We have another 9:30 AM start with the Lions @ Chiefs. Last week Jeremy Maclin was a surprise inactive. I don't see it happening again but you'll want to double check before starting him.

Lions @ Chiefs - Sunday 11/1 @ 9:30 AM EST

Matchups We Love:

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - The Chiefs give up the most points to fantasy WRs and it’s not particularly close. They’ve also faced a number of top ten WRs already and they’ve shown they can’t defend top players. Megatron should get to 100 yards for the second time this season.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - Maclin was a surprise inactive after reportedly passing concussion tests last week. This week he should definitely be active and he will be a borderline WR1. Expect him to pick up where he left off in the three games before injury.

Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs - I’m still not 100% sold on West but I think he is a very nice start here. After beating up on the Steelers, the Lions are a much nicer matchup. The Lions have given up 9 RB rushing touchdowns. West is comfortably in RB2 territory this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Lions RBs - I guess Ameer Abdullah is the only potential fantasy option but there isn’t much to like here. The Chiefs have not allowed an RB rushing touchdown in six of seven games. Expect that to continue here.

Notable Players:

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - Stafford has had a couple strong weeks with a 6:1 TD:INT over the last two games. I would expect similar numbers to last week. Nothing great, but a solid day if you start him.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions - Tate was nearly invisible last week. I think he can rebound in PPR leagues here given the decent matchup but I’m not expecting too much. A PPR WR2 but merely an alright flex in standard.

Eric Ebron, TE, Lions - Ebron came back from his injury and continued his very nice season. He is definitely in the conversation as a top ten guy ROS. Chiefs are allowing the 4th fewest points to tight ends. That in combination with the Chiefs’ weakness to WRs makes this a less than ideal matchup. Still, Ebron is definitely startable given what he has shown.

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs - It’s rarely pretty or exciting but Alex Smith has had at least 13 points in every matchup except vs the elite Denver D. Expect more of the same here and I have him around QB15.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - Travis Kelce still hasn’t scored since Week 1 but he is on pace for 78 catches and 1,100 yards. Those numbers have allowed him to remain the TE5 on the season. He will continue to see plenty of targets and if that’s the case it is just a matter of time until he scores again.

Buccaneers @ Falcons - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Mike Evans, WR, Bucs - No Vincent Jackson or Louis Murphy this week means Mike Evans is a very safe bet for 10+ targets, if not considerably more. Maybe a repeat of last weeks 164 yards isn’t quite realistic but he could come close. Then again he managed to average 153 yards over a three game stretch in the middle of last season. Expect WR1 numbers.

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs - If you take away the game where the Titans did nothing at RB (which I’m willing to do because it's the Titans), the Falcons are tied for most points allowed to opposing RBs per game. They’ve given up the most rushing touchdowns this season. With the team banged up at WR, expect Martin to see a significant workload.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Bucs - This is a mild love but even if Jameis Winston doesn’t throw a ton, someone besides Evans will be getting targets. That should be ASJ who looks like he will play. ASJ had a huge first game before going down with an injury. He’s still out there in a lot of leagues and could be a great pickup for the second half.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Julio has come back to earth with no 100 yard games over the last four weeks. That is after a three game start where he averaged 146 yards. Julio’s ‘slow stretch’ still included two touchdowns and two games of 90+ yards. This week seems like a great game to put up another elite performance. The Bucs allow the 5th most fantasy points to WRs while giving up at least one WR touchdown in every game so far. They are the only team to have done that.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - The Bucs actually have not allowed a rushing TD or 100 yard rusher in the last three games. For Devonta Freeman, that isn’t a concern.

Matchups We Hate:

None.

Notable Players:

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - Ryan just hasn’t played as well as I expected this season. He sits at QB12 on the season and has looked particularly off over the last three games where he has more turnovers than touchdowns despite nice matchups. On paper this is again a nice matchup but Ryan’s performance of late has him outside my top ten.

Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs - Winston has not had a turnover the last two games and last week was the best game of his young career. That’s very promising for the future but the Falcons give up the 5th fewest points to QBs. I have Winston around QB20 this week.

Charles Sims, RB, Bucs - Sims has had 50+ yards from scrimmage in each of the last four games with two scores during that span. He actually hasn’t been as involved as a receiver as I had hoped - he has not exceeded 4 receptions in a single game. That is probably thanks to Doug Martin’s dominance. Yet in this game where the Falcons are heavily favored Sims seems like a good bet to be more involved. In deeper leagues and especially PPR he is a flex consideration.

Cardinals @ Browns - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Chris Johnson, RB, Cardinals - Over CJ2K’s last 5 games he has averaged a 5+ YPC in 4 of them. It’s really incredible for a guy that looked done last year. The Browns have been struggled against RBs in every game except vs the Titans (pretty much the same story as the Falcons above). I would be extremely surprised if CJ2K didn’t have a really strong game here.

Duke Johnson, RB, Cardinals - A mild love, but I think he can surprise people here. The Cardinals have given up 46 receptions to RBs, tied for 5th most in the league. That’s an average of 6.5 per game. Likewise Duke is averaging just over 6 catches a game since recording his first catch in Week 3. I expect him to be a PPR RB2 here.

Matchups We Hate:

Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns - I’ve become a fan after Barnidge has plowed through several tough matchups already with no signs of stopping but this looks to be his toughest yet. Tight ends average just 3.1 standard points when facing the Cardinals. Still because of what Barnidge has shown us so far, he remains in my top ten. He’s just not a top five play this week.

Notable Players:

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals - Fitz had his first bad game last week while both John Brown and Michael Floyd scored. I’ve seen many people point this out as a reason that Fitz can’t be relied upon going forward; the talent elsewhere at WR is just too good. I disagree. I still think Fitz is the top talent here and he remains a borderline top ten WR. This is a really good offense and that means Fitz is very valuable.

John Brown & Michael Floyd, WRs, Cardinals - Despite playing last week with his hamstring injury and even scoring, John Brown is highly questionable here. If he plays he is a WR2 but if not I think that vaults Floyd into my top 25. Even though Floyd has been a disappointment for most of his career, I still see a lot of talent in him. No John Brown would make him a very capable play.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals - The matchup isn’t especially good or bad but Palmer is playing at such a high level that he is a top 5 QB this week anyway. Palmer sits at QB3 on the season and has too many good weapons. Start him.

Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns - Outside of dominating the 49ers WRs, the Cardinals have not played especially well against the position. Benjamin is averaging 8 targets a game. That is a number that should allow him to continue to be in the flex conversation weekly.

49ers @ Rams - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams - It didn’t take long for Gurley to put himself in the ‘set it and forget it’ tier of players but he is clearly there. With 150+ yards from scrimmage in each of the last three games, simply continue to enjoy if you are a Gurley owner!

Matchups We Hate:

49ers ENTIRE offense - The 49ers have managed three separate games with under 200 total yards of offense and no more than 7 points scored. Astoundingly, they are looking like a strong candidate to do that once again this week. We saw Kaepernick crumble under the pressure the Seahawks brought last week. St. Louis probably has an even better defensive front. It is going to be ugly. To make matters worse Carlos Hyde is out this week. Avoid the entire situation.

Notable Players:

Rams WRs - The 49ers give up the 4th most points to WRs but it’s hard to actually expect any Rams WR to live up to the matchup here. Tavon Austin leads the Rams WRs with just over 50 yards from scrimmage per game (aka even including his rushing he isn’t very good). Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey and Brian Quick have a combined 8 catches over the last three games with six of those from Bailey. I kind of have a good feeling about Britt here - he did have two strong games back-to-back earlier in the season. Yet with just 1 catch over the last three games, he can’t be touched.

Giants @ Saints - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Eli Manning, QB, Giants - Manning is a frustrating player and it seems like he rarely meets expectations in a good matchup. He has just 1 touchdown against 2 interceptions over the last two games. I still expect a top ten day here though. It’s just too good of a matchup as the Saints allow the 2nd most points to QBs.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants - Maybe he isn’t fully healthy but Odell doesn’t quite look like the same explosive player he was as a rookie. Even still he is on pace for 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns. Not bad for a disappointment. Even if he isn’t quite 100% this is great matchup and he has to be started.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints - The Giants have given up over 100 rushing yards and a score to RBs in each of their last three games. Ingram has been fantastic this season and has already matched his career high for receptions. He seems just about matchup proof at this point.

Matchups We Hate:

None!

Notable Players:

Drew Brees, QB, Saints - In an expected shootout last week, Brees matched his season lows with 255 passing yards and 1 touchdown. Of course.  However he is still averaging over 300 yards a game and has the lowest interception % of his career. The problem is that a fantastic rushing attack has limited his touchdowns. He should be able to put up QB1 numbers but it probably won’t be a huge day.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints - Cooks leads the Saints in receptions and targets but he has still been far from great. Over the last three weeks, Cooks has averaged 76 yards a game. I’d like to see more scoring opportunities but for now he is a low-end WR2.

Willie Snead, WR, Saints - Snead has quieted down the last two weeks but he is still the clear #2 in this pass attack. That makes him a potential flex play. If Drew Brees has a big game it won’t be all Cooks.

Vikings @ Bears - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings - Teddy has been a disappointment this season but the Bears allow the 5th most points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears have given up 15 pass TDs to just 3 interceptions. Teddy only has 5 passing touchdowns on the season but last week was his first game with two passing scores. He should be able to match that this week.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings - Stefon Diggs is looking like one of the steals of the NFL draft. It’s only been three games but the 5th rounder has had at least six catches and 87 yards in all of them. He is already clearly the top target in this pass attack. The Bears are a great matchup for WRs so I don’t see it slowing down.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - The Vikings are the only team to allow over 100 rec yards to opposing tight ends in back-to-back weeks this season. That is something they have done the past two weeks against Travis Kelce, Eric Ebron and their backups. Martellus Bennett is another very good tight end and should have a really nice day here.

Matchups We Hate:

Matt Forte, RB, Bears - After getting crushed by Carlos Hyde, the Vikings continue to look like an excellent run defense. Outside of a lone mistake that led to Ronnie Hillman scoring on a 72 yard rush the Vikings have dominated running backs since Week 2. Forte is still very startable because he is so heavily involved but it’s going to be a tough day.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings - For a guy averaging just over 20 yards per game, it’s touchdown or bust for Rudolph. The Bears have only given up two touchdowns to tight ends this season. I’m not interested in taking on those odds.

Notable Players:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings - You’re stills starting him but the Bears have not allowed an RB rushing touchdown in the last four games. Then again that stat is pretty deceptive because they have faced Thomas Rawls, Charcandrick West and Ameer Abdullah in three of those games. There is a good chance Peterson bucks the trend.

Mike Wallace, WR, Vikings - It’s been a disappointing season for Mike Wallace, especially now that Stefon Diggs has passed him. Mike Wallace has never finished outside the top 30 WRs in standard scoring but currently sits at WR55. There is no way he can be trusted and he is barely rosterable right now.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - Looked fantastic in his return before the bye. It’s a tough matchup but he should definitely be in your lineup.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - Not an easy matchup but the Vikings have allowed 15+ fantasy points to QBs in four of the last five games. Cutler should do just fine in this game. I think there are probably better options this week but if you have to rely on Cutler I don’t think he kills you.

Chargers @ Ravens - Sunday 11/1 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers - The Ravens have a dreadful secondary which has led to them allowing the MOST points to opposing QBs. What happens when you pair the QB with the most passing yards against the team giving up the most passing yards? Well we are about to find out but it’s safe to say you need to be starting Rivers.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers - Keenan Allen has been a bit up and down this season with three games of 130+ yards and two with under 60 yards and then two more in the 70-90 range. The Ravens give up the 2nd most points to WRs so this is definitely one of the better games on paper. He is easily a WR1 this week.

Stevie Johnson, WR, Chargers - Stevie started off with a bang, scoring in his first two games as a charger. He then cooled off and also got hurt. He received 8 targets last week. He should hit that total again and in a great matchup that makes him a pretty promising flex. I think he will put up a very respectable day with a decent chance to score.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers - Woodhead has been incredible this season and I don’t think it ends here. Woodhead is averaging 85 yards a game with 4 touchdowns in 7 games. At 30 years old and coming off a major injury, Woodhead has become a great player in more than just PPR formats. I’m thinking the Chargers keep throwing a lot as they have been so expect more of the same for Woodhead.

Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens - The Chargers allow the most points to opposing RBs and they seem to be pretty bad at stopping both a run attack and RB screen passes. That is great news for Forsett. After a pretty slow start, Forsett has had either 100+ yards or a score in each of the past four games. That should continue.

Steve Smith, WR, Ravens - After an awful first week, Smith is averaging 115 yards over his last five games. That includes 78 yards in a really tough matchup last week. Never doubt Steve Smith. It’s one of the lessons I’ve had to learn many times over the past few years and I’m not forgetting it here.

Matchups We Hate:

Antonio Gates & Ladarius Green, TEs, Chargers - If Gates plays this situation is especially unattractive. The one spot either of these teams is especially good at stopping is the Ravens vs tight ends. They have allowed the third fewest points to TEs on the season. If Gates is out, Green is a low-end TE1 and if Gates does play you’re probably starting him but don’t expect much.

Notable Players:

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens - Flacco is rarely a sexy play but this game has the highest O/U of the week. When the wise guys expect a lot of points, it usually means good news for fantasy. Flacco has had some great games, some awful games and some in between. At the very worst this should be an alright game. I have him as a high-end QB2.

Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens - The Chargers are far from a bad matchup, but outside of Gillmore’s big two touchdown game, his best game was last week’s 5 for 53 performance. If you’re really desperate I think he can match that, but expecting anything more would be setting yourself up for disappointment.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]